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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KOKC · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 2 QC2.84 [2.23, 4.19]2.67-0.85 [-2.35, 1.01]3.37 [2.71, 4.50]21% [7%, 30%]37%58%+0.18+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 2 QC2.84 [2.19, 5.09]2.67-0.85 [-2.63, 1.73]3.37 [2.66, 5.28]21% [0%, 29%]37%58%+0.18+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 2 QC2.84 [2.16, 5.00]2.67-0.85 [-2.73, 1.64]3.37 [2.59, 5.10]21% [0%, 29%]37%58%+0.18+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 2 QC2.84 [2.19, 5.03]2.67-0.85 [-2.61, 1.71]3.37 [2.70, 5.10]21% [0%, 29%]37%58%+0.18+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 2 QC2.59 [1.84, 4.21]2.49-0.55 [-2.06, 1.42]3.29 [2.39, 4.78]26% [8%, 37%]47%63%+0.25+0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 2 QC2.59 [1.81, 5.50]2.49-0.55 [-2.31, 2.39]3.29 [2.28, 5.72]26% [0%, 37%]47%63%+0.25+0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 2 QC2.59 [1.75, 5.15]2.49-0.55 [-2.38, 2.04]3.29 [2.21, 5.49]26% [0%, 38%]47%63%+0.25+0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 2 QC2.59 [1.80, 5.15]2.49-0.55 [-2.30, 2.34]3.29 [2.31, 5.37]26% [0%, 37%]47%63%+0.25+0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 2 QC4.36 [3.57, 5.14]3.89-2.21 [-3.84, -0.56]5.07 [4.09, 5.66]5% [0%, 13%]21%32%-0.25-0.112026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 2 QC4.36 [3.25, 5.23]3.89-2.21 [-4.12, 0.00]5.07 [3.61, 5.72]5% [0%, 12%]21%32%-0.25-0.112026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 2 QC4.36 [3.25, 5.27]3.89-2.21 [-4.10, -0.19]5.07 [3.56, 5.73]5% [0%, 14%]21%32%-0.25-0.112026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 2 QC4.36 [3.18, 5.37]3.89-2.21 [-4.13, 0.06]5.07 [3.45, 5.74]5% [0%, 14%]21%32%-0.25-0.112026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 2 QC4.35 [3.47, 5.09]4.13-1.76 [-3.57, -0.02]5.06 [4.14, 5.60]11% [0%, 17%]16%42%-0.25-0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 2 QC4.35 [3.34, 5.18]4.13-1.76 [-3.97, 0.41]5.06 [3.59, 5.65]11% [0%, 17%]16%42%-0.25-0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 2 QC4.35 [3.40, 5.30]4.13-1.76 [-3.92, 0.32]5.06 [3.55, 5.66]11% [0%, 17%]16%42%-0.25-0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 2 QC4.35 [3.35, 5.24]4.13-1.76 [-3.99, 0.60]5.06 [3.55, 5.69]11% [0%, 17%]16%42%-0.25-0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 2 QC7.26 [6.31, 9.31]3.12+7.26 [6.31, 9.31]8.16 [7.13, 10.39]0% [0%, 0%]5%16%-0.84+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 2 QC7.26 [6.27, 11.42]3.12+7.26 [6.27, 11.42]8.16 [7.10, 11.89]0% [0%, 0%]5%16%-0.84+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 2 QC7.26 [6.13, 11.01]3.12+7.26 [6.13, 11.01]8.16 [6.95, 11.52]0% [0%, 0%]5%16%-0.84+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 2 QC7.26 [6.13, 11.01]3.12+7.26 [6.13, 11.01]8.16 [6.97, 11.52]0% [0%, 0%]5%16%-0.84+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 2 QC8.24 [7.19, 10.49]3.39+8.24 [7.19, 10.49]9.17 [8.09, 11.46]0% [0%, 0%]5%11%-1.09+0.152026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 2 QC8.24 [7.12, 12.67]3.39+8.24 [7.12, 12.67]9.17 [8.02, 13.10]0% [0%, 0%]5%11%-1.09+0.152026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 2 QC8.24 [6.98, 12.33]3.39+8.24 [6.98, 12.33]9.17 [7.85, 12.85]0% [0%, 0%]5%11%-1.09+0.152026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 2 QC8.24 [7.01, 12.33]3.39+8.24 [7.01, 12.33]9.17 [7.91, 12.85]0% [0%, 0%]5%11%-1.09+0.152026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 2 QC6.90 [5.81, 9.43]2.67+6.90 [5.81, 9.43]7.68 [6.49, 10.08]5% [0%, 12%]5%11%-0.75+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 2 QC6.90 [5.73, 11.35]2.67+6.90 [5.73, 11.35]7.68 [6.35, 11.70]5% [0%, 13%]5%11%-0.75+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 2 QC6.90 [5.63, 10.52]2.67+6.90 [5.63, 10.52]7.68 [6.39, 11.09]5% [0%, 14%]5%11%-0.75+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 2 QC6.90 [5.69, 11.10]2.67+6.90 [5.69, 11.10]7.68 [6.40, 11.53]5% [0%, 14%]5%11%-0.75+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 2 QC7.74 [6.73, 10.06]2.96+7.74 [6.73, 10.06]8.53 [7.41, 10.72]0% [0%, 0%]5%11%-0.96+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 2 QC7.74 [6.65, 11.95]2.96+7.74 [6.65, 11.95]8.53 [7.27, 12.31]0% [0%, 0%]5%11%-0.96+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 2 QC7.74 [6.56, 11.47]2.96+7.74 [6.56, 11.47]8.53 [7.32, 11.66]0% [0%, 0%]5%11%-0.96+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 2 QC7.74 [6.59, 11.91]2.96+7.74 [6.59, 11.91]8.53 [7.37, 12.14]0% [0%, 0%]5%11%-0.96+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: +6.08 °F2026-08-13: -3.1 °F2026-08-14: -4.73 °F2026-08-15: -0.63 °F2026-08-16: -1.91 °F2026-08-17: +1.4 °F2026-08-18: -4.01 °F2026-08-19: +0.24 °F2026-08-20: -2.52 °F2026-08-21: -1.17 °F2026-08-22: +2.41 °F2026-08-23: +5.58 °F2026-08-24: -2.36 °F2026-08-25: -0.61 °F2026-08-26: +0.68 °F2026-08-27: +2.53 °F2026-08-28: -5.19 °F2026-08-29: -5.17 °F2026-08-30: -3.67 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.67
2026-08-29-5.17
2026-08-28-5.19
2026-08-27+2.53
2026-08-26+0.68
2026-08-25-0.61
2026-08-24-2.36
2026-08-23+5.58
2026-08-22+2.41
2026-08-21-1.17
2026-08-20-2.52
2026-08-19+0.24
2026-08-18-4.01
2026-08-17+1.40
2026-08-16-1.91
2026-08-15-0.63
2026-08-14-4.73
2026-08-13-3.10
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07+6.08

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.52 · P90 |e| 5.27 °F-100+10 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08192.84 -0.85

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 -1.61 [-2.92, 0.38] no
NCEP GFS 19 -1.93 [-3.12, 0.71] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -6.79 [-8.07, -1.89] yes
Persistence (baseline) 19 -0.63 [-1.46, 1.34] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence