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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KIAH · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.62 [2.72, 4.11]1.30-3.62 [-4.11, -2.72]4.02 [3.33, 4.44]11% [0%, 27%]17%28%-0.12+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.62 [1.79, 4.11]1.30-3.62 [-4.11, -1.79]4.02 [2.29, 4.47]11% [0%, 33%]17%28%-0.12+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.62 [2.03, 4.17]1.30-3.62 [-4.17, -2.03]4.02 [2.74, 4.48]11% [0%, 33%]17%28%-0.12+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.62 [2.06, 4.14]1.30-3.62 [-4.14, -2.06]4.02 [2.64, 4.48]11% [0%, 33%]17%28%-0.12+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC4.11 [3.23, 4.59]1.21-4.11 [-4.59, -3.23]4.39 [3.71, 4.84]0% [0%, 0%]17%17%-0.27+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC4.11 [2.59, 4.58]1.21-4.11 [-4.58, -2.59]4.39 [3.03, 4.86]0% [0%, 0%]17%17%-0.27+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC4.11 [2.77, 4.62]1.21-4.11 [-4.62, -2.77]4.39 [3.21, 4.87]0% [0%, 0%]17%17%-0.27+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC4.11 [2.86, 4.59]1.21-4.11 [-4.59, -2.86]4.39 [3.20, 4.85]0% [0%, 0%]17%17%-0.27+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.56 [2.60, 4.23]1.30-3.56 [-4.23, -2.60]3.93 [3.15, 4.72]6% [0%, 22%]18%35%-0.04+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.56 [1.80, 4.27]1.30-3.56 [-4.27, -1.80]3.93 [2.45, 4.87]6% [0%, 25%]18%35%-0.04+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.56 [2.00, 4.35]1.30-3.56 [-4.35, -2.00]3.93 [2.53, 4.91]6% [0%, 25%]18%35%-0.04+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.56 [1.99, 4.35]1.30-3.56 [-4.35, -1.99]3.93 [2.64, 5.03]6% [0%, 25%]18%35%-0.04+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC4.21 [3.48, 4.82]1.09-4.21 [-4.82, -3.48]4.45 [3.72, 5.19]0% [0%, 0%]6%18%-0.23+0.642026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC4.21 [2.86, 4.93]1.09-4.21 [-4.93, -2.86]4.45 [3.16, 5.31]0% [0%, 0%]6%18%-0.23+0.642026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC4.21 [2.99, 5.01]1.09-4.21 [-5.01, -2.99]4.45 [3.24, 5.36]0% [0%, 0%]6%18%-0.23+0.642026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC4.21 [3.02, 5.02]1.09-4.21 [-5.02, -3.02]4.45 [3.32, 5.51]0% [0%, 0%]6%18%-0.23+0.642026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.04 [0.90, 3.47]2.00+1.75 [0.48, 3.38]3.14 [1.27, 4.66]39% [0%, 68%]72%72%+0.45+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.04 [0.83, 3.78]2.00+1.75 [0.37, 3.63]3.14 [1.07, 5.02]39% [0%, 69%]72%72%+0.45+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.04 [0.70, 3.75]2.00+1.75 [0.22, 3.58]3.14 [0.95, 4.81]39% [0%, 71%]72%72%+0.45+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.04 [0.64, 3.57]2.00+1.75 [0.10, 3.41]3.14 [0.80, 4.81]39% [0%, 71%]72%72%+0.45+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC1.95 [0.94, 3.31]2.01+1.28 [-0.02, 2.99]2.94 [1.16, 4.45]39% [0%, 59%]72%78%+0.48+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC1.95 [0.91, 3.59]2.01+1.28 [-0.12, 3.31]2.94 [1.03, 4.79]39% [0%, 59%]72%78%+0.48+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC1.95 [0.86, 3.52]2.01+1.28 [-0.25, 3.21]2.94 [0.99, 4.60]39% [0%, 62%]72%78%+0.48+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC1.95 [0.79, 3.52]2.01+1.28 [-0.41, 3.11]2.94 [0.92, 4.61]39% [0%, 62%]72%78%+0.48+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.17 [1.20, 3.19]1.74+1.99 [0.92, 3.14]3.11 [1.58, 4.23]41% [0%, 75%]59%76%+0.40+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.17 [1.14, 3.38]1.74+1.99 [0.87, 3.27]3.11 [1.40, 4.39]41% [0%, 75%]59%76%+0.40+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.17 [1.01, 3.24]1.74+1.99 [0.73, 3.21]3.11 [1.33, 4.27]41% [0%, 79%]59%76%+0.40+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.17 [0.95, 3.30]1.74+1.99 [0.68, 3.19]3.11 [1.22, 4.25]41% [0%, 83%]59%76%+0.40+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC1.78 [0.90, 2.68]1.71+1.40 [0.38, 2.49]2.75 [1.14, 3.89]53% [20%, 82%]71%88%+0.51+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC1.78 [0.82, 2.85]1.71+1.40 [0.31, 2.70]2.75 [0.99, 3.99]53% [20%, 88%]71%88%+0.51+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC1.78 [0.78, 2.73]1.71+1.40 [0.18, 2.52]2.75 [0.99, 3.92]53% [18%, 89%]71%88%+0.51+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC1.78 [0.73, 2.74]1.71+1.40 [0.15, 2.53]2.75 [0.94, 3.90]53% [20%, 90%]71%88%+0.51+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -1.19 °F2026-08-14: -0.43 °F2026-08-15: -3.87 °F2026-08-16: -6.95 °F2026-08-17: -3.33 °F2026-08-18: -2.38 °F2026-08-19: -2.83 °F2026-08-20: -4.19 °F2026-08-21: -5.75 °F2026-08-22: -4.08 °F2026-08-23: -3.54 °F2026-08-24: -4.92 °F2026-08-25: -3.11 °F2026-08-26: -4.37 °F2026-08-27: -3.72 °F2026-08-28: -3.55 °F2026-08-29: -0.5 °F2026-08-30: -6.47 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-6.47
2026-08-29-0.50
2026-08-28-3.55
2026-08-27-3.72
2026-08-26-4.37
2026-08-25-3.11
2026-08-24-4.92
2026-08-23-3.54
2026-08-22-4.08
2026-08-21-5.75
2026-08-20-4.19
2026-08-19-2.83
2026-08-18-2.38
2026-08-17-3.33
2026-08-16-6.95
2026-08-15-3.87
2026-08-14-0.43
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-1.19

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.64 · P90 |e| 5.97 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.62 -3.62

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.31 [-1.12, 1.79] no
NCEP GFS 18 +1.51 [0.27, 2.44] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -3.12 [-4.21, -0.88] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 +0.40 [-0.72, 1.30] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence