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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KIAH · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.16 [2.11, 4.13]1.30-3.11 [-4.10, -2.07]3.53 [2.40, 4.36]13% [0%, 30%]22%43%+0.05+0.612026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.16 [1.86, 4.19]1.30-3.11 [-4.17, -1.86]3.53 [2.14, 4.45]13% [0%, 33%]22%43%+0.05+0.612026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.16 [1.97, 4.40]1.30-3.11 [-4.40, -1.94]3.53 [2.20, 4.56]13% [0%, 33%]22%43%+0.05+0.612026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.16 [1.80, 4.35]1.30-3.11 [-4.35, -1.76]3.53 [2.06, 4.58]13% [0%, 33%]22%43%+0.05+0.612026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.43 [2.40, 4.37]1.26-3.40 [-4.37, -2.39]3.78 [2.68, 4.61]13% [0%, 30%]17%30%-0.02+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.43 [2.14, 4.43]1.26-3.40 [-4.42, -2.14]3.78 [2.41, 4.67]13% [0%, 33%]17%30%-0.02+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.43 [2.25, 4.64]1.26-3.40 [-4.64, -2.25]3.78 [2.51, 4.80]13% [0%, 33%]17%30%-0.02+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC3.43 [2.09, 4.61]1.26-3.40 [-4.61, -2.07]3.78 [2.33, 4.80]13% [0%, 33%]17%30%-0.02+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.53 [2.51, 4.45]1.32-3.46 [-4.45, -2.36]3.85 [2.71, 4.60]9% [0%, 21%]17%26%-0.06+0.602026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.53 [2.34, 4.49]1.32-3.46 [-4.48, -2.14]3.85 [2.53, 4.64]9% [0%, 24%]17%26%-0.06+0.602026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.53 [2.38, 4.70]1.32-3.46 [-4.70, -2.19]3.85 [2.55, 4.80]9% [0%, 23%]17%26%-0.06+0.602026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.53 [2.33, 4.66]1.32-3.46 [-4.66, -2.20]3.85 [2.47, 4.76]9% [0%, 24%]17%26%-0.06+0.602026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC3.82 [2.80, 4.71]1.26-3.79 [-4.71, -2.73]4.13 [3.06, 4.84]9% [0%, 21%]13%22%-0.14+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC3.82 [2.63, 4.78]1.26-3.79 [-4.78, -2.52]4.13 [2.83, 4.90]9% [0%, 24%]13%22%-0.14+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC3.82 [2.67, 4.99]1.26-3.79 [-4.99, -2.57]4.13 [2.88, 5.05]9% [0%, 23%]13%22%-0.14+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC3.82 [2.63, 4.94]1.26-3.79 [-4.94, -2.55]4.13 [2.80, 5.03]9% [0%, 24%]13%22%-0.14+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.07 [1.69, 2.38]2.09+0.29 [-1.29, 1.72]2.47 [2.10, 2.87]35% [23%, 50%]48%74%+0.41+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.07 [1.60, 2.41]2.09+0.29 [-1.31, 1.88]2.47 [2.07, 2.93]35% [21%, 54%]48%74%+0.41+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.07 [1.57, 2.40]2.09+0.29 [-1.58, 1.84]2.47 [2.02, 2.90]35% [21%, 55%]48%74%+0.41+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.07 [1.54, 2.39]2.09+0.29 [-1.71, 1.89]2.47 [2.03, 2.93]35% [20%, 55%]48%74%+0.41+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.08 [1.65, 2.43]2.09+0.10 [-1.48, 1.55]2.46 [2.05, 2.85]26% [12%, 46%]48%78%+0.41+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.08 [1.53, 2.46]2.09+0.10 [-1.51, 1.71]2.46 [2.00, 2.91]26% [11%, 50%]48%78%+0.41+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.08 [1.50, 2.49]2.09+0.10 [-1.79, 1.66]2.46 [1.94, 2.91]26% [9%, 50%]48%78%+0.41+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC2.08 [1.47, 2.46]2.09+0.10 [-1.90, 1.71]2.46 [1.95, 2.89]26% [10%, 50%]48%78%+0.41+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.93 [1.43, 2.29]1.92+0.05 [-1.40, 1.49]2.35 [1.87, 2.72]39% [24%, 56%]52%74%+0.45+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.93 [1.32, 2.35]1.92+0.05 [-1.44, 1.67]2.35 [1.82, 2.77]39% [22%, 60%]52%74%+0.45+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.93 [1.29, 2.34]1.92+0.05 [-1.76, 1.63]2.35 [1.70, 2.74]39% [21%, 60%]52%74%+0.45+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.93 [1.24, 2.35]1.92+0.05 [-1.79, 1.68]2.35 [1.55, 2.73]39% [21%, 60%]52%74%+0.45+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC1.93 [1.37, 2.36]1.93-0.13 [-1.60, 1.33]2.36 [1.82, 2.76]35% [14%, 57%]52%74%+0.45+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC1.93 [1.27, 2.41]1.93-0.13 [-1.63, 1.51]2.36 [1.76, 2.79]35% [12%, 60%]52%74%+0.45+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC1.93 [1.25, 2.40]1.93-0.13 [-1.95, 1.47]2.36 [1.64, 2.77]35% [11%, 62%]52%74%+0.45+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC1.93 [1.19, 2.42]1.93-0.13 [-1.99, 1.51]2.36 [1.53, 2.74]35% [11%, 61%]52%74%+0.45+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -3.46 °F2026-08-09: -3.23 °F2026-08-10: -1.2 °F2026-08-11: -2.53 °F2026-08-12: -3.26 °F2026-08-13: -2.95 °F2026-08-14: +0.66 °F2026-08-15: -3.85 °F2026-08-16: -4.18 °F2026-08-17: -3.49 °F2026-08-18: -4.65 °F2026-08-19: -2.79 °F2026-08-20: -4.3 °F2026-08-21: -4.8 °F2026-08-22: -6.78 °F2026-08-23: -4.69 °F2026-08-24: -5.54 °F2026-08-25: -3.1 °F2026-08-26: -2.09 °F2026-08-27: -1.81 °F2026-08-28: -0.47 °F2026-08-29: -0.76 °F2026-08-30: -2.21 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.21
2026-08-29-0.76
2026-08-28-0.47
2026-08-27-1.81
2026-08-26-2.09
2026-08-25-3.10
2026-08-24-5.54
2026-08-23-4.69
2026-08-22-6.78
2026-08-21-4.80
2026-08-20-4.30
2026-08-19-2.79
2026-08-18-4.65
2026-08-17-3.49
2026-08-16-4.18
2026-08-15-3.85
2026-08-14+0.66
2026-08-13-2.95
2026-08-12-3.26
2026-08-11-2.53
2026-08-10-1.20
2026-08-09-3.23
2026-08-08-3.46

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.23 · P90 |e| 4.78 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.16 -3.11

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 +0.87 [-0.80, 2.18] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -2.96 [-3.91, -1.26] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.31 [-1.79, 1.12] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 -0.18 [-1.94, 1.04] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence