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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Diego Lindbergh · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KSAN · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC5.68 [5.04, 6.31]1.34-5.68 [-6.31, -5.04]5.95 [5.18, 6.62]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-1.78+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC5.68 [4.90, 6.28]1.34-5.68 [-6.28, -4.90]5.95 [5.11, 6.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-1.78+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC5.68 [4.89, 6.41]1.34-5.68 [-6.41, -4.89]5.95 [5.05, 6.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-1.78+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC5.68 [4.82, 6.44]1.34-5.68 [-6.44, -4.82]5.95 [4.95, 6.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-1.78+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC9.24 [7.85, 10.62]1.78-9.24 [-10.62, -7.85]9.54 [7.96, 10.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.52+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC9.24 [7.78, 10.64]1.78-9.24 [-10.64, -7.78]9.54 [7.89, 10.96]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.52+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC9.24 [7.77, 10.74]1.78-9.24 [-10.74, -7.77]9.54 [7.88, 11.02]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.52+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC9.24 [7.65, 10.78]1.78-9.24 [-10.78, -7.65]9.54 [7.76, 11.06]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.52+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC5.82 [5.16, 6.42]1.31-5.82 [-6.42, -5.16]6.05 [5.28, 6.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.03+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC5.82 [5.02, 6.40]1.31-5.82 [-6.40, -5.02]6.05 [5.13, 6.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.03+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC5.82 [5.02, 6.48]1.31-5.82 [-6.48, -5.02]6.05 [5.11, 6.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.03+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC5.82 [5.00, 6.49]1.31-5.82 [-6.49, -5.00]6.05 [5.08, 6.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.03+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC9.29 [7.98, 10.57]1.69-9.29 [-10.57, -7.98]9.56 [8.13, 10.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.84+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC9.29 [7.95, 10.60]1.69-9.29 [-10.60, -7.95]9.56 [8.07, 10.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.84+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC9.29 [7.90, 10.74]1.69-9.29 [-10.74, -7.90]9.56 [7.99, 11.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.84+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC9.29 [7.80, 10.75]1.69-9.29 [-10.75, -7.80]9.56 [7.86, 11.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.84+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.12 [0.92, 1.43]0.81-0.87 [-1.33, -0.56]1.31 [1.13, 1.56]45% [30%, 56%]86%100%-0.89-0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.12 [0.90, 1.57]0.81-0.87 [-1.55, -0.54]1.31 [1.09, 1.71]45% [22%, 58%]86%100%-0.89-0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.12 [0.90, 1.56]0.81-0.87 [-1.55, -0.55]1.31 [1.10, 1.66]45% [20%, 57%]86%100%-0.89-0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.12 [0.93, 1.55]0.81-0.87 [-1.55, -0.56]1.31 [1.12, 1.65]45% [24%, 57%]86%100%-0.89-0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC0.99 [0.77, 1.25]0.92-0.54 [-1.13, -0.08]1.22 [0.93, 1.51]55% [33%, 72%]91%100%-0.68-0.412026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC0.99 [0.75, 1.29]0.92-0.54 [-1.26, -0.10]1.22 [0.91, 1.53]55% [28%, 73%]91%100%-0.68-0.412026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC0.99 [0.74, 1.29]0.92-0.54 [-1.26, -0.06]1.22 [0.91, 1.55]55% [29%, 73%]91%100%-0.68-0.412026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC0.99 [0.77, 1.32]0.92-0.54 [-1.32, -0.10]1.22 [0.93, 1.55]55% [20%, 71%]91%100%-0.68-0.412026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.11 [0.89, 1.36]0.93-0.74 [-1.19, -0.41]1.29 [1.11, 1.47]42% [24%, 59%]96%100%-0.57-0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.11 [0.89, 1.42]0.93-0.74 [-1.29, -0.41]1.29 [1.11, 1.54]42% [20%, 60%]96%100%-0.57-0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.11 [0.87, 1.40]0.93-0.74 [-1.27, -0.41]1.29 [1.09, 1.51]42% [20%, 60%]96%100%-0.57-0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.11 [0.89, 1.45]0.93-0.74 [-1.34, -0.40]1.29 [1.11, 1.55]42% [18%, 58%]96%100%-0.57-0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.11 [0.97, 1.29]1.00-0.42 [-0.95, 0.02]1.25 [1.03, 1.48]42% [24%, 55%]88%100%-0.57-0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.11 [0.96, 1.33]1.00-0.42 [-1.08, 0.01]1.25 [1.02, 1.52]42% [20%, 55%]88%100%-0.57-0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.11 [0.96, 1.33]1.00-0.42 [-1.07, 0.02]1.25 [1.02, 1.53]42% [20%, 55%]88%100%-0.57-0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.11 [0.95, 1.30]1.00-0.42 [-1.11, 0.01]1.25 [1.01, 1.50]42% [14%, 55%]88%100%-0.57-0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-02: -4.8 °F2026-08-10: -7.27 °F2026-08-11: -5.72 °F2026-08-12: -6.16 °F2026-08-13: -5.24 °F2026-08-14: -6.03 °F2026-08-15: -4.24 °F2026-08-16: -2.93 °F2026-08-17: -5.69 °F2026-08-18: -4.86 °F2026-08-19: -4.75 °F2026-08-20: -6.81 °F2026-08-21: -6.54 °F2026-08-22: -5.16 °F2026-08-23: -8.95 °F2026-08-24: -4.59 °F2026-08-25: -6.12 °F2026-08-26: -10.45 °F2026-08-27: -4.12 °F2026-08-28: -3.57 °F2026-08-29: -7.55 °F2026-08-30: -3.46 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.46
2026-08-29-7.55
2026-08-28-3.57
2026-08-27-4.12
2026-08-26-10.45
2026-08-25-6.12
2026-08-24-4.59
2026-08-23-8.95
2026-08-22-5.16
2026-08-21-6.54
2026-08-20-6.81
2026-08-19-4.75
2026-08-18-4.86
2026-08-17-5.69
2026-08-16-2.93
2026-08-15-4.24
2026-08-14-6.03
2026-08-13-5.24
2026-08-12-6.16
2026-08-11-5.72
2026-08-10-7.27
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-4.80

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 1-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 7 days-6 to -4 °F: 10 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.46 · P90 |e| 7.52 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.007
-6.00-4.0010
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08225.68 -5.68

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +1.98 [1.46, 2.54] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -0.60 [-0.60, -0.60] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 +0.33 [0.25, 0.41] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +2.92 [2.92, 2.92] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +2.95 [2.59, 3.31] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +2.73 [2.19, 3.59] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -0.04 [-0.04, -0.04] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.09 [-0.75, 0.27] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -1.51 [-1.51, -1.51] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -0.90 [-1.03, -0.77] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +3.64 [1.97, 4.80] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAN ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAN (San Diego Lindbergh), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence