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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KIAH · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.84 [3.10, 4.44]1.44-3.73 [-4.41, -2.89]4.20 [3.41, 4.87]4% [0%, 17%]17%25%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.84 [2.87, 4.63]1.44-3.73 [-4.63, -2.56]4.20 [3.23, 5.03]4% [0%, 25%]17%25%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.84 [2.79, 4.76]1.44-3.73 [-4.76, -2.51]4.20 [3.07, 5.12]4% [0%, 22%]17%25%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.84 [2.83, 4.70]1.44-3.73 [-4.70, -2.58]4.20 [3.18, 5.03]4% [0%, 30%]17%25%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC4.43 [3.72, 4.95]1.25-4.43 [-4.95, -3.72]4.73 [4.03, 5.23]4% [0%, 13%]8%17%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC4.43 [3.45, 5.13]1.25-4.43 [-5.13, -3.45]4.73 [3.82, 5.37]4% [0%, 15%]8%17%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC4.43 [3.39, 5.16]1.25-4.43 [-5.16, -3.39]4.73 [3.73, 5.42]4% [0%, 14%]8%17%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC4.43 [3.41, 5.19]1.25-4.43 [-5.19, -3.41]4.73 [3.70, 5.37]4% [0%, 14%]8%17%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.93 [1.32, 2.52]1.68+1.07 [0.14, 2.07]2.41 [1.62, 2.96]25% [9%, 43%]71%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.93 [1.33, 2.55]1.68+1.07 [-0.00, 2.18]2.41 [1.48, 3.01]25% [6%, 44%]71%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.93 [1.24, 2.55]1.68+1.07 [-0.09, 2.22]2.41 [1.37, 3.03]25% [6%, 46%]71%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.93 [1.17, 2.56]1.68+1.07 [-0.21, 2.18]2.41 [1.28, 3.00]25% [0%, 47%]71%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC1.71 [1.19, 2.21]1.63+0.62 [-0.25, 1.59]2.22 [1.46, 2.74]29% [11%, 45%]71%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC1.71 [1.21, 2.28]1.63+0.62 [-0.35, 1.74]2.22 [1.44, 2.80]29% [0%, 45%]71%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC1.71 [1.17, 2.26]1.63+0.62 [-0.53, 1.77]2.22 [1.37, 2.80]29% [0%, 48%]71%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC1.71 [1.10, 2.28]1.63+0.62 [-0.59, 1.75]2.22 [1.31, 2.78]29% [0%, 48%]71%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -0.93 °F2026-08-08: -5 °F2026-08-09: -1.25 °F2026-08-10: +1.33 °F2026-08-11: -4.51 °F2026-08-12: -4.93 °F2026-08-13: -3.85 °F2026-08-14: -2.31 °F2026-08-15: -5.23 °F2026-08-16: -6.24 °F2026-08-17: -4.28 °F2026-08-18: -3.36 °F2026-08-19: -2.25 °F2026-08-20: -3.53 °F2026-08-21: -3.17 °F2026-08-22: -3.45 °F2026-08-23: -1.45 °F2026-08-24: -4.51 °F2026-08-25: -3.95 °F2026-08-26: -3.35 °F2026-08-27: -6.06 °F2026-08-28: -8.26 °F2026-08-29: -5.02 °F2026-08-30: -3.86 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.86
2026-08-29-5.02
2026-08-28-8.26
2026-08-27-6.06
2026-08-26-3.35
2026-08-25-3.95
2026-08-24-4.51
2026-08-23-1.45
2026-08-22-3.45
2026-08-21-3.17
2026-08-20-3.53
2026-08-19-2.25
2026-08-18-3.36
2026-08-17-4.28
2026-08-16-6.24
2026-08-15-5.23
2026-08-14-2.31
2026-08-13-3.85
2026-08-12-4.93
2026-08-11-4.51
2026-08-10+1.33
2026-08-09-1.25
2026-08-08-5.00
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-0.93

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.86 · P90 |e| 5.81 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08243.84 -3.73

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 +0.45 [-0.47, 1.33] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -0.91 [-1.70, -0.12] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -0.61 [-1.60, 1.07] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +0.56 [0.15, 0.98] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 +1.24 [0.06, 3.60] yes
NCEP GFS 24 +2.27 [1.17, 3.06] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 +0.36 [0.09, 0.62] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -1.69 [-2.22, -0.85] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +1.94 [1.18, 2.71] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +2.41 [1.20, 4.35] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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