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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 0

KIAH · aifs_single · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC3.46 [2.76, 4.09]1.19-3.46 [-4.09, -2.76]3.84 [3.03, 4.57]3% [0%, 10%]13%43%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC3.46 [2.65, 4.15]1.19-3.46 [-4.15, -2.65]3.84 [2.92, 4.62]3% [0%, 10%]13%43%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC3.46 [2.66, 4.21]1.19-3.46 [-4.21, -2.66]3.84 [2.88, 4.68]3% [0%, 10%]13%43%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC3.46 [2.65, 4.15]1.19-3.46 [-4.15, -2.65]3.84 [2.89, 4.63]3% [0%, 10%]13%43%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 1 QC3.79 [3.11, 4.37]1.21-3.79 [-4.37, -3.11]4.16 [3.40, 4.86]3% [0%, 10%]13%33%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 1 QC3.79 [2.99, 4.44]1.21-3.79 [-4.44, -2.99]4.16 [3.26, 4.88]3% [0%, 10%]13%33%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC3.79 [3.00, 4.48]1.21-3.79 [-4.48, -3.00]4.16 [3.22, 4.96]3% [0%, 10%]13%33%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC3.79 [3.00, 4.43]1.21-3.79 [-4.43, -3.00]4.16 [3.25, 4.92]3% [0%, 10%]13%33%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC1.66 [1.12, 2.27]1.58-0.60 [-1.55, 0.33]2.11 [1.49, 2.70]43% [23%, 67%]67%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC1.66 [1.11, 2.29]1.58-0.60 [-1.61, 0.41]2.11 [1.51, 2.73]43% [24%, 70%]67%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC1.66 [1.12, 2.37]1.58-0.60 [-1.74, 0.57]2.11 [1.48, 2.77]43% [21%, 70%]67%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC1.66 [1.12, 2.31]1.58-0.60 [-1.82, 0.47]2.11 [1.50, 2.74]43% [21%, 69%]67%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 1 QC1.72 [1.12, 2.38]1.59-0.80 [-1.76, 0.15]2.19 [1.52, 2.79]33% [13%, 57%]63%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 1 QC1.72 [1.13, 2.38]1.59-0.80 [-1.81, 0.26]2.19 [1.55, 2.83]33% [14%, 60%]63%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC1.72 [1.10, 2.51]1.59-0.80 [-1.96, 0.40]2.19 [1.47, 2.88]33% [13%, 60%]63%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC1.72 [1.12, 2.43]1.59-0.80 [-2.04, 0.31]2.19 [1.53, 2.84]33% [13%, 60%]63%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -1.52 °F2026-08-02: -6.98 °F2026-08-03: -3.67 °F2026-08-04: -3.49 °F2026-08-05: -3.13 °F2026-08-06: -2.88 °F2026-08-07: -2.22 °F2026-08-08: -2.69 °F2026-08-09: -1.58 °F2026-08-10: -0.49 °F2026-08-11: -2.47 °F2026-08-12: -3.76 °F2026-08-13: -2.81 °F2026-08-14: -1.7 °F2026-08-15: -3.07 °F2026-08-16: -5.25 °F2026-08-17: -4.49 °F2026-08-18: -3.63 °F2026-08-19: -2.58 °F2026-08-20: -3.84 °F2026-08-21: -4.38 °F2026-08-22: -4.65 °F2026-08-23: -2.59 °F2026-08-24: -5.01 °F2026-08-25: -4.1 °F2026-08-26: -3.43 °F2026-08-27: -9.3 °F2026-08-28: -3.72 °F2026-08-29: -2.05 °F2026-08-30: -2.22 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.22
2026-08-29-2.05
2026-08-28-3.72
2026-08-27-9.30
2026-08-26-3.43
2026-08-25-4.10
2026-08-24-5.01
2026-08-23-2.59
2026-08-22-4.65
2026-08-21-4.38
2026-08-20-3.84
2026-08-19-2.58
2026-08-18-3.63
2026-08-17-4.49
2026-08-16-5.25
2026-08-15-3.07
2026-08-14-1.70
2026-08-13-2.81
2026-08-12-3.76
2026-08-11-2.47
2026-08-10-0.49
2026-08-09-1.58
2026-08-08-2.69
2026-08-07-2.22
2026-08-06-2.88
2026-08-05-3.13
2026-08-04-3.49
2026-08-03-3.67
2026-08-02-6.98
2026-08-01-1.52

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 9 days-3 to -2 °F: 9 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.28 · P90 |e| 5.03 °F-100+10 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.009
-3.00-2.009
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08303.46 -3.46

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -3.22 [-3.34, -3.09] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -3.66 [-3.87, -3.24] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -1.74 [-1.99, -1.49] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -1.81 [-2.25, -0.94] yes
NCEP GFS 30 +2.03 [1.14, 2.76] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -1.95 [-2.36, -1.54] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -2.30 [-2.96, -1.72] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 -0.45 [-1.33, 0.47] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -0.36 [-0.46, -0.27] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -0.64 [-0.86, -0.19] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH aifs_single lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model aifs_single, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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