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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KEWR · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.46 [2.57, 4.11]1.74-3.14 [-3.92, -2.05]3.86 [2.95, 4.43]4% [0%, 13%]29%42%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.46 [2.42, 4.15]1.74-3.14 [-4.01, -1.77]3.86 [2.76, 4.49]4% [0%, 15%]29%42%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.46 [2.42, 4.18]1.74-3.14 [-4.05, -1.76]3.86 [2.78, 4.48]4% [0%, 14%]29%42%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.46 [2.43, 4.16]1.74-3.14 [-4.10, -1.73]3.86 [2.75, 4.46]4% [0%, 14%]29%42%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC3.32 [2.48, 3.99]1.81-2.84 [-3.72, -1.57]3.73 [2.75, 4.36]0% [0%, 0%]33%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC3.32 [2.29, 4.08]1.81-2.84 [-3.79, -1.33]3.73 [2.54, 4.45]0% [0%, 0%]33%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC3.32 [2.29, 4.11]1.81-2.84 [-3.82, -1.40]3.73 [2.55, 4.46]0% [0%, 0%]33%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC3.32 [2.29, 4.05]1.81-2.84 [-3.90, -1.23]3.73 [2.54, 4.41]0% [0%, 0%]33%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.86 [1.31, 2.42]1.62+1.49 [0.95, 2.19]2.52 [1.68, 3.11]46% [26%, 62%]62%75%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.86 [1.18, 2.47]1.62+1.49 [0.94, 2.33]2.52 [1.44, 3.16]46% [20%, 65%]62%75%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.86 [1.11, 2.51]1.62+1.49 [0.91, 2.41]2.52 [1.34, 3.16]46% [20%, 69%]62%75%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.86 [1.16, 2.47]1.62+1.49 [0.88, 2.29]2.52 [1.47, 3.09]46% [17%, 65%]62%75%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC1.69 [1.04, 2.21]1.65+0.80 [0.28, 1.49]2.21 [1.31, 2.77]42% [26%, 62%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC1.69 [0.89, 2.21]1.65+0.80 [0.25, 1.64]2.21 [1.07, 2.80]42% [25%, 67%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC1.69 [0.76, 2.24]1.65+0.80 [0.20, 1.73]2.21 [0.95, 2.80]42% [25%, 69%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC1.69 [0.87, 2.21]1.65+0.80 [0.20, 1.60]2.21 [1.05, 2.75]42% [23%, 65%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -3.74 °F2026-08-08: -2.49 °F2026-08-09: -1.95 °F2026-08-10: +0.91 °F2026-08-11: -1.41 °F2026-08-12: -1.14 °F2026-08-13: -5.33 °F2026-08-14: -2.85 °F2026-08-15: -3.75 °F2026-08-16: -1.48 °F2026-08-17: -3.69 °F2026-08-18: -5.88 °F2026-08-19: -4.77 °F2026-08-20: -1.83 °F2026-08-21: -5.63 °F2026-08-22: -3.34 °F2026-08-23: -3.16 °F2026-08-24: -5.37 °F2026-08-25: -5.11 °F2026-08-26: -4.31 °F2026-08-27: -1.27 °F2026-08-28: -7.42 °F2026-08-29: -3.36 °F2026-08-30: +2.92 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.92
2026-08-29-3.36
2026-08-28-7.42
2026-08-27-1.27
2026-08-26-4.31
2026-08-25-5.11
2026-08-24-5.37
2026-08-23-3.16
2026-08-22-3.34
2026-08-21-5.63
2026-08-20-1.83
2026-08-19-4.77
2026-08-18-5.88
2026-08-17-3.69
2026-08-16-1.48
2026-08-15-3.75
2026-08-14-2.85
2026-08-13-5.33
2026-08-12-1.14
2026-08-11-1.41
2026-08-10+0.91
2026-08-09-1.95
2026-08-08-2.49
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-3.74

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 5 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.35 · P90 |e| 5.55 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.005
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08243.46 -3.14

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 +1.10 [0.72, 1.53] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -0.82 [-0.98, -0.66] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 +0.35 [-0.46, 1.97] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +0.35 [-1.19, 1.90] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -0.19 [-1.57, 0.51] no
NCEP GFS 24 +1.98 [1.15, 2.57] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -0.74 [-1.02, -0.46] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -0.69 [-1.45, 0.02] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +1.86 [1.13, 2.59] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +2.10 [0.78, 2.98] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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