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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 0

KEWR · aifs_single · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC2.58 [1.95, 3.17]1.41-2.54 [-3.11, -1.90]3.15 [2.36, 3.80]23% [10%, 37%]43%63%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC2.58 [1.90, 3.23]1.41-2.54 [-3.19, -1.83]3.15 [2.21, 3.88]23% [11%, 39%]43%63%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC2.58 [1.79, 3.29]1.41-2.54 [-3.28, -1.70]3.15 [2.07, 3.92]23% [10%, 40%]43%63%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC2.58 [1.84, 3.31]1.41-2.54 [-3.31, -1.77]3.15 [2.17, 4.00]23% [10%, 40%]43%63%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 1 QC2.52 [1.88, 3.14]1.39-2.47 [-3.09, -1.84]3.09 [2.27, 3.72]20% [3%, 37%]43%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 1 QC2.52 [1.82, 3.17]1.39-2.47 [-3.13, -1.77]3.09 [2.15, 3.82]20% [5%, 39%]43%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC2.52 [1.67, 3.22]1.39-2.47 [-3.19, -1.60]3.09 [1.95, 3.86]20% [3%, 40%]43%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC2.52 [1.75, 3.24]1.39-2.47 [-3.23, -1.69]3.09 [2.07, 3.92]20% [3%, 40%]43%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC1.68 [1.15, 2.31]1.50+1.26 [0.81, 1.77]2.21 [1.56, 2.85]40% [17%, 63%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC1.68 [1.01, 2.40]1.50+1.26 [0.70, 1.85]2.21 [1.36, 2.95]40% [15%, 70%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC1.68 [0.89, 2.40]1.50+1.26 [0.59, 1.86]2.21 [1.19, 2.95]40% [14%, 77%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC1.68 [1.00, 2.40]1.50+1.26 [0.65, 1.88]2.21 [1.30, 2.96]40% [14%, 72%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 1 QC1.48 [0.99, 2.06]1.52+0.41 [-0.09, 1.00]1.92 [1.29, 2.54]37% [20%, 53%]73%87%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 1 QC1.48 [0.94, 2.14]1.52+0.41 [-0.24, 1.12]1.92 [1.20, 2.63]37% [20%, 57%]73%87%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC1.48 [0.88, 2.14]1.52+0.41 [-0.37, 1.14]1.92 [1.09, 2.60]37% [18%, 57%]73%87%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC1.48 [0.94, 2.15]1.52+0.41 [-0.29, 1.16]1.92 [1.18, 2.62]37% [18%, 56%]73%87%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -2.6 °F2026-08-02: -0.82 °F2026-08-03: -8.39 °F2026-08-04: -0.74 °F2026-08-05: -4.02 °F2026-08-06: -2.97 °F2026-08-07: -3.93 °F2026-08-08: -0.72 °F2026-08-09: -0.59 °F2026-08-10: -1.47 °F2026-08-11: -1.72 °F2026-08-12: -1.89 °F2026-08-13: -1.09 °F2026-08-14: -1.28 °F2026-08-15: -2.34 °F2026-08-16: -0.85 °F2026-08-17: -1.62 °F2026-08-18: -3.32 °F2026-08-19: -3.94 °F2026-08-20: -3.24 °F2026-08-21: -5.32 °F2026-08-22: -3.32 °F2026-08-23: -2.77 °F2026-08-24: -3 °F2026-08-25: -2.61 °F2026-08-26: -3.31 °F2026-08-27: -0 °F2026-08-28: -6.37 °F2026-08-29: -2.59 °F2026-08-30: +0.74 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.74
2026-08-29-2.59
2026-08-28-6.37
2026-08-27-0.00
2026-08-26-3.31
2026-08-25-2.61
2026-08-24-3.00
2026-08-23-2.77
2026-08-22-3.32
2026-08-21-5.32
2026-08-20-3.24
2026-08-19-3.94
2026-08-18-3.32
2026-08-17-1.62
2026-08-16-0.85
2026-08-15-2.34
2026-08-14-1.28
2026-08-13-1.09
2026-08-12-1.89
2026-08-11-1.72
2026-08-10-1.47
2026-08-09-0.59
2026-08-08-0.72
2026-08-07-3.93
2026-08-06-2.97
2026-08-05-4.02
2026-08-04-0.74
2026-08-03-8.39
2026-08-02-0.82
2026-08-01-2.60

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 7 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 6 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.59 · P90 |e| 4.15 °F-100+10 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.007
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.006
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08302.58 -2.54

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -2.30 [-3.16, -1.43] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -0.98 [-1.37, -0.21] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -1.12 [-3.37, 1.13] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -1.52 [-2.63, -0.97] yes
NCEP GFS 30 +0.88 [0.50, 1.26] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -2.22 [-2.64, -1.79] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -1.92 [-2.42, -1.28] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 -1.10 [-1.53, -0.72] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +0.39 [-1.05, 1.82] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +0.76 [-1.40, 1.92] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR aifs_single lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model aifs_single, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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