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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Boston Logan · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KBOS · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.37 [1.49, 3.12]2.41-0.19 [-1.30, 0.57]3.06 [2.08, 3.77]38% [24%, 58%]52%62%+0.64+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.37 [1.27, 3.24]2.41-0.19 [-1.68, 0.61]3.06 [1.82, 3.81]38% [22%, 60%]52%62%+0.64+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.37 [1.16, 3.31]2.41-0.19 [-1.71, 0.78]3.06 [1.73, 3.88]38% [22%, 62%]52%62%+0.64+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.37 [1.16, 3.38]2.41-0.19 [-1.72, 0.61]3.06 [1.77, 3.94]38% [22%, 63%]52%62%+0.64+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 1 QC2.53 [1.74, 3.25]2.50+0.24 [-0.99, 1.09]3.15 [2.15, 3.95]29% [15%, 47%]43%62%+0.61+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 1 QC2.53 [1.51, 3.41]2.50+0.24 [-1.40, 1.06]3.15 [1.99, 3.96]29% [12%, 50%]43%62%+0.61+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d21 1 QC2.53 [1.47, 3.46]2.50+0.24 [-1.44, 1.23]3.15 [1.95, 4.07]29% [12%, 50%]43%62%+0.61+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall21 1 QC2.53 [1.52, 3.60]2.50+0.24 [-1.48, 1.16]3.15 [1.97, 4.14]29% [11%, 53%]43%62%+0.61+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.80 [1.77, 3.60]2.49-1.24 [-2.12, -0.42]3.43 [2.27, 4.23]29% [18%, 46%]38%62%+0.58+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.80 [1.44, 3.81]2.49-1.24 [-2.38, -0.40]3.43 [1.84, 4.39]29% [15%, 48%]38%62%+0.58+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.80 [1.39, 3.83]2.49-1.24 [-2.39, -0.38]3.43 [1.86, 4.44]29% [14%, 50%]38%62%+0.58+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.80 [1.44, 3.90]2.49-1.24 [-2.44, -0.39]3.43 [1.83, 4.47]29% [14%, 50%]38%62%+0.58+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.70 [1.76, 3.50]2.40-1.19 [-2.07, -0.57]3.36 [2.28, 4.15]33% [17%, 59%]52%57%+0.59+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.70 [1.48, 3.76]2.40-1.19 [-2.35, -0.48]3.36 [1.87, 4.37]33% [14%, 64%]52%57%+0.59+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC2.70 [1.50, 3.77]2.40-1.19 [-2.35, -0.47]3.36 [1.93, 4.43]33% [12%, 62%]52%57%+0.59+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC2.70 [1.49, 3.96]2.40-1.19 [-2.54, -0.44]3.36 [1.86, 4.47]33% [12%, 62%]52%57%+0.59+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC1.82 [1.14, 2.38]1.80+0.57 [-0.40, 1.24]2.29 [1.64, 2.75]33% [20%, 54%]57%81%-0.01+0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC1.82 [0.84, 2.46]1.80+0.57 [-0.63, 1.26]2.29 [1.34, 2.81]33% [19%, 62%]57%81%-0.01+0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC1.82 [0.88, 2.49]1.80+0.57 [-0.70, 1.33]2.29 [1.34, 2.86]33% [17%, 60%]57%81%-0.01+0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall21 1 QC1.82 [0.96, 2.55]1.80+0.57 [-0.74, 1.26]2.29 [1.37, 2.89]33% [17%, 57%]57%81%-0.01+0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 1 QC1.88 [1.23, 2.40]1.83+0.64 [-0.31, 1.22]2.31 [1.62, 2.77]33% [19%, 60%]48%76%-0.04+0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 1 QC1.88 [0.94, 2.48]1.83+0.64 [-0.53, 1.24]2.31 [1.28, 2.84]33% [17%, 74%]48%76%-0.04+0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d21 1 QC1.88 [0.99, 2.52]1.83+0.64 [-0.58, 1.30]2.31 [1.33, 2.88]33% [15%, 67%]48%76%-0.04+0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall21 1 QC1.88 [1.05, 2.58]1.83+0.64 [-0.63, 1.24]2.31 [1.31, 2.92]33% [15%, 71%]48%76%-0.04+0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC1.61 [1.08, 2.15]1.56+0.81 [-0.37, 1.82]2.07 [1.40, 2.62]43% [24%, 58%]62%86%+0.15+0.182026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC1.61 [1.02, 2.23]1.56+0.81 [-0.68, 1.92]2.07 [1.31, 2.64]43% [20%, 59%]62%86%+0.15+0.182026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC1.61 [1.00, 2.29]1.56+0.81 [-0.79, 2.12]2.07 [1.30, 2.70]43% [17%, 60%]62%86%+0.15+0.182026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC1.61 [1.01, 2.23]1.56+0.81 [-0.71, 1.97]2.07 [1.29, 2.66]43% [0%, 60%]62%86%+0.15+0.182026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC1.69 [1.11, 2.34]1.54+0.98 [-0.26, 2.02]2.17 [1.49, 2.74]43% [21%, 64%]62%76%+0.11+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC1.69 [1.05, 2.42]1.54+0.98 [-0.60, 2.16]2.17 [1.40, 2.75]43% [20%, 67%]62%76%+0.11+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC1.69 [1.02, 2.52]1.54+0.98 [-0.71, 2.33]2.17 [1.39, 2.83]43% [14%, 67%]62%76%+0.11+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC1.69 [1.02, 2.57]1.54+0.98 [-0.63, 2.25]2.17 [1.40, 2.78]43% [14%, 67%]62%76%+0.11+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -3.81 °F2026-08-08: -2.88 °F2026-08-09: +0.18 °F2026-08-11: -0.04 °F2026-08-13: +0.2 °F2026-08-14: +0.84 °F2026-08-15: +3.94 °F2026-08-16: -3.76 °F2026-08-17: +1.7 °F2026-08-18: +2.03 °F2026-08-19: -4.46 °F2026-08-20: -0.06 °F2026-08-21: +5.74 °F2026-08-22: +0.51 °F2026-08-23: +5.19 °F2026-08-24: -5.28 °F2026-08-25: -4.79 °F2026-08-26: +0.98 °F2026-08-27: -1.6 °F2026-08-29: +1.58 °F2026-08-30: -0.31 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.31
2026-08-29+1.58
2026-08-28—
2026-08-27-1.60
2026-08-26+0.98
2026-08-25-4.79
2026-08-24-5.28
2026-08-23+5.19
2026-08-22+0.51
2026-08-21+5.74
2026-08-20-0.06
2026-08-19-4.46
2026-08-18+2.03
2026-08-17+1.70
2026-08-16-3.76
2026-08-15+3.94
2026-08-14+0.84
2026-08-13+0.20
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-0.04
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09+0.18
2026-08-08-2.88
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-3.81

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 5 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.7 · P90 |e| 5.19 °F-100+10 °Fn = 21 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.005
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.002
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08212.37 -0.19

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 21 -0.90 [-2.21, -0.04] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -3.81 [-3.81, -3.81] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -5.78 [-5.78, -5.78] yes
NCEP GFS 21 -0.51 [-1.76, 0.20] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.87 [-2.00, 0.24] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -3.53 [-3.53, -3.53] yes
Persistence (baseline) 20 -4.37 [-6.46, -1.85] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KBOS ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KBOS (Boston Logan), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence