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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Los Angeles Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KLAX · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC2.32 [1.50, 2.89]1.62-2.12 [-2.71, -1.34]2.85 [2.13, 3.30]26% [4%, 56%]48%61%-0.13+0.232026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC2.32 [1.20, 2.99]1.62-2.12 [-2.78, -1.06]2.85 [1.82, 3.38]26% [4%, 70%]48%61%-0.13+0.232026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC2.32 [1.17, 2.99]1.62-2.12 [-2.85, -1.02]2.85 [1.80, 3.38]26% [0%, 75%]48%61%-0.13+0.232026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 2 QC2.32 [1.18, 2.99]1.62-2.12 [-2.83, -1.00]2.85 [1.81, 3.39]26% [0%, 70%]48%61%-0.13+0.232026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 2 QC5.54 [4.93, 6.06]1.47-5.54 [-6.06, -4.93]5.86 [5.16, 6.36]0% [0%, 0%]4%9%-1.71+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 2 QC5.54 [4.71, 6.10]1.47-5.54 [-6.10, -4.71]5.86 [4.93, 6.45]0% [0%, 0%]4%9%-1.71+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 2 QC5.54 [4.65, 6.20]1.47-5.54 [-6.20, -4.65]5.86 [4.94, 6.54]0% [0%, 0%]4%9%-1.71+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 2 QC5.54 [4.73, 6.06]1.47-5.54 [-6.06, -4.73]5.86 [4.98, 6.41]0% [0%, 0%]4%9%-1.71+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC2.28 [1.72, 2.61]1.35-2.07 [-2.49, -1.41]2.63 [2.12, 2.94]23% [7%, 50%]45%64%-0.09+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC2.28 [1.51, 2.68]1.35-2.07 [-2.61, -1.10]2.63 [1.91, 3.03]23% [6%, 67%]45%64%-0.09+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC2.28 [1.43, 2.76]1.35-2.07 [-2.70, -1.10]2.63 [1.85, 3.09]23% [4%, 67%]45%64%-0.09+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC2.28 [1.51, 2.75]1.35-2.07 [-2.67, -1.17]2.63 [1.85, 3.06]23% [6%, 67%]45%64%-0.09+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC5.50 [4.86, 6.03]1.26-5.50 [-6.03, -4.86]5.75 [5.10, 6.24]0% [0%, 0%]5%9%-1.63+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC5.50 [4.64, 6.11]1.26-5.50 [-6.11, -4.64]5.75 [4.84, 6.34]0% [0%, 0%]5%9%-1.63+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC5.50 [4.68, 6.24]1.26-5.50 [-6.24, -4.68]5.75 [4.86, 6.45]0% [0%, 0%]5%9%-1.63+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC5.50 [4.60, 6.13]1.26-5.50 [-6.13, -4.60]5.75 [4.77, 6.34]0% [0%, 0%]5%9%-1.63+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC0.97 [0.63, 1.36]0.94+0.52 [-0.13, 1.17]1.24 [0.79, 1.63]57% [30%, 83%]91%96%+0.26+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC0.97 [0.64, 1.45]0.94+0.52 [-0.13, 1.31]1.24 [0.80, 1.71]57% [25%, 82%]91%96%+0.26+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC0.97 [0.61, 1.46]0.94+0.52 [-0.21, 1.34]1.24 [0.76, 1.71]57% [25%, 86%]91%96%+0.26+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 2 QC0.97 [0.63, 1.49]0.94+0.52 [-0.17, 1.38]1.24 [0.79, 1.74]57% [22%, 86%]91%96%+0.26+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 2 QC0.93 [0.69, 1.18]0.92-0.22 [-0.89, 0.38]1.15 [0.83, 1.37]65% [43%, 84%]91%100%+0.29+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 2 QC0.93 [0.68, 1.20]0.92-0.22 [-0.93, 0.50]1.15 [0.78, 1.38]65% [40%, 86%]91%100%+0.29+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 2 QC0.93 [0.64, 1.21]0.92-0.22 [-0.98, 0.50]1.15 [0.75, 1.39]65% [38%, 88%]91%100%+0.29+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 2 QC0.93 [0.69, 1.21]0.92-0.22 [-0.95, 0.61]1.15 [0.75, 1.39]65% [40%, 88%]91%100%+0.29+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC0.84 [0.44, 1.25]0.79+0.68 [0.13, 1.20]1.16 [0.68, 1.52]68% [44%, 92%]82%100%+0.38+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC0.84 [0.42, 1.39]0.79+0.68 [0.07, 1.34]1.16 [0.65, 1.68]68% [38%, 93%]82%100%+0.38+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC0.84 [0.38, 1.36]0.79+0.68 [0.03, 1.32]1.16 [0.49, 1.64]68% [38%, 96%]82%100%+0.38+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC0.84 [0.35, 1.44]0.79+0.68 [-0.02, 1.39]1.16 [0.41, 1.70]68% [33%, 100%]82%100%+0.38+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC0.88 [0.72, 1.05]0.84-0.14 [-0.79, 0.39]1.03 [0.89, 1.15]59% [43%, 75%]100%100%+0.35+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC0.88 [0.71, 1.09]0.84-0.14 [-0.91, 0.46]1.03 [0.86, 1.17]59% [38%, 78%]100%100%+0.35+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC0.88 [0.69, 1.10]0.84-0.14 [-0.96, 0.47]1.03 [0.83, 1.17]59% [38%, 80%]100%100%+0.35+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC0.88 [0.70, 1.09]0.84-0.14 [-0.93, 0.54]1.03 [0.83, 1.17]59% [38%, 80%]100%100%+0.35+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: +0.21 °F2026-08-08: -0.11 °F2026-08-09: -0.58 °F2026-08-10: -0.29 °F2026-08-11: -3.69 °F2026-08-13: -3.18 °F2026-08-14: -3.54 °F2026-08-15: -2.55 °F2026-08-16: -1.3 °F2026-08-17: -1.42 °F2026-08-18: -5.81 °F2026-08-19: -3.78 °F2026-08-20: +2.05 °F2026-08-21: -3.93 °F2026-08-22: -1.55 °F2026-08-23: -1.88 °F2026-08-24: -0.66 °F2026-08-25: -0.18 °F2026-08-26: -2.22 °F2026-08-27: -4.85 °F2026-08-28: -1.15 °F2026-08-29: -4.84 °F2026-08-30: -3.54 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.54
2026-08-29-4.84
2026-08-28-1.15
2026-08-27-4.85
2026-08-26-2.22
2026-08-25-0.18
2026-08-24-0.66
2026-08-23-1.88
2026-08-22-1.55
2026-08-21-3.93
2026-08-20+2.05
2026-08-19-3.78
2026-08-18-5.81
2026-08-17-1.42
2026-08-16-1.30
2026-08-15-2.55
2026-08-14-3.54
2026-08-13-3.18
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-3.69
2026-08-10-0.29
2026-08-09-0.58
2026-08-08-0.11
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03+0.21

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.05 · P90 |e| 4.66 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.005
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.32 -2.12

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 +0.44 [-0.84, 1.27] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -2.75 [-2.75, -2.75] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +0.41 [0.41, 0.41] yes
NCEP GFS 23 -0.08 [-1.34, 0.72] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -1.60 [-2.70, -0.88] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -0.50 [-0.50, -0.50] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 +0.27 [-0.69, 1.18] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAX ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAX (Los Angeles Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence