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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KSAT · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.17 [2.34, 4.18]1.24-3.17 [-4.18, -2.34]3.49 [2.55, 4.46]9% [0%, 24%]26%52%-1.91-0.142026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.17 [2.18, 4.20]1.24-3.17 [-4.20, -2.18]3.49 [2.39, 4.49]9% [0%, 33%]26%52%-1.91-0.142026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.17 [2.15, 4.35]1.24-3.17 [-4.35, -2.15]3.49 [2.33, 4.60]9% [0%, 33%]26%52%-1.91-0.142026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.17 [2.01, 4.30]1.24-3.17 [-4.30, -2.01]3.49 [2.23, 4.55]9% [0%, 33%]26%52%-1.91-0.142026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.43 [1.54, 3.51]1.36-2.43 [-3.51, -1.54]2.92 [1.96, 3.91]22% [5%, 44%]43%65%-1.24-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.43 [1.40, 3.51]1.36-2.43 [-3.51, -1.40]2.92 [1.75, 3.94]22% [7%, 50%]43%65%-1.24-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.43 [1.37, 3.64]1.36-2.43 [-3.64, -1.37]2.92 [1.65, 3.98]22% [5%, 50%]43%65%-1.24-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC2.43 [1.16, 3.60]1.36-2.43 [-3.60, -1.16]2.92 [1.51, 4.02]22% [5%, 58%]43%65%-1.24-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.68 [2.93, 4.57]1.23-3.68 [-4.57, -2.93]3.99 [3.12, 4.82]0% [0%, 0%]8%38%-2.27-0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.68 [2.85, 4.67]1.23-3.68 [-4.67, -2.85]3.99 [3.04, 4.89]0% [0%, 0%]8%38%-2.27-0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.68 [2.78, 4.71]1.23-3.68 [-4.71, -2.78]3.99 [2.89, 4.93]0% [0%, 0%]8%38%-2.27-0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.68 [2.78, 4.69]1.23-3.68 [-4.69, -2.78]3.99 [2.89, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]8%38%-2.27-0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.97 [2.15, 3.97]1.41-2.97 [-3.97, -2.15]3.43 [2.43, 4.33]8% [0%, 15%]38%58%-1.64-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.97 [2.03, 4.13]1.41-2.97 [-4.13, -2.03]3.43 [2.28, 4.43]8% [0%, 14%]38%58%-1.64-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.97 [1.98, 4.11]1.41-2.97 [-4.11, -1.98]3.43 [2.15, 4.43]8% [0%, 14%]38%58%-1.64-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC2.97 [1.96, 4.12]1.41-2.97 [-4.12, -1.96]3.43 [2.10, 4.45]8% [0%, 14%]38%58%-1.64-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.09 [1.03, 2.98]2.11+1.07 [-0.78, 2.59]2.65 [1.23, 3.51]39% [17%, 71%]48%83%-0.37-0.382026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.09 [0.86, 3.12]2.11+1.07 [-0.86, 2.73]2.65 [0.91, 3.69]39% [13%, 88%]48%83%-0.37-0.382026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.09 [0.89, 3.12]2.11+1.07 [-0.92, 2.71]2.65 [0.93, 3.68]39% [12%, 90%]48%83%-0.37-0.382026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.09 [0.85, 3.08]2.11+1.07 [-0.91, 2.79]2.65 [0.91, 3.64]39% [14%, 91%]48%83%-0.37-0.382026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.31 [0.67, 3.67]2.22+1.84 [-0.14, 3.44]3.14 [0.95, 4.26]43% [10%, 88%]57%57%-0.52-0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.31 [0.44, 3.84]2.22+1.84 [-0.23, 3.58]3.14 [0.52, 4.46]43% [4%, 100%]57%57%-0.52-0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.31 [0.42, 3.82]2.22+1.84 [-0.26, 3.58]3.14 [0.50, 4.46]43% [0%, 100%]57%57%-0.52-0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC2.31 [0.43, 3.77]2.22+1.84 [-0.27, 3.65]3.14 [0.50, 4.35]43% [0%, 100%]57%57%-0.52-0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.81 [1.16, 2.34]1.85+0.52 [-1.01, 1.90]2.16 [1.29, 2.73]25% [16%, 40%]62%88%-0.17-0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.81 [0.93, 2.44]1.85+0.52 [-1.07, 2.01]2.16 [1.08, 2.82]25% [14%, 46%]62%88%-0.17-0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.81 [0.98, 2.47]1.85+0.52 [-1.12, 2.03]2.16 [1.12, 2.84]25% [14%, 44%]62%88%-0.17-0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.81 [0.98, 2.44]1.85+0.52 [-1.12, 2.11]2.16 [1.11, 2.77]25% [14%, 47%]62%88%-0.17-0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.94 [0.78, 2.93]1.92+1.24 [-0.38, 2.71]2.52 [0.91, 3.37]46% [11%, 89%]62%71%-0.26-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.94 [0.65, 3.09]1.92+1.24 [-0.44, 2.83]2.52 [0.69, 3.48]46% [4%, 100%]62%71%-0.26-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.94 [0.65, 3.08]1.92+1.24 [-0.50, 2.84]2.52 [0.70, 3.48]46% [0%, 100%]62%71%-0.26-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.94 [0.64, 3.07]1.92+1.24 [-0.51, 2.91]2.52 [0.69, 3.43]46% [0%, 100%]62%71%-0.26-0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -0.95 °F2026-08-09: -6.18 °F2026-08-10: -5.17 °F2026-08-11: -3.77 °F2026-08-12: -4.58 °F2026-08-13: -5.63 °F2026-08-14: -4.47 °F2026-08-15: -3.12 °F2026-08-16: -1.93 °F2026-08-17: -2.82 °F2026-08-18: -3.45 °F2026-08-19: -0.91 °F2026-08-20: -2.74 °F2026-08-21: -2.5 °F2026-08-22: -2.79 °F2026-08-23: -2.21 °F2026-08-24: -1.85 °F2026-08-25: -1.57 °F2026-08-26: -2.42 °F2026-08-27: -4.36 °F2026-08-28: -4.75 °F2026-08-29: -3.58 °F2026-08-30: -1.1 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.10
2026-08-29-3.58
2026-08-28-4.75
2026-08-27-4.36
2026-08-26-2.42
2026-08-25-1.57
2026-08-24-1.85
2026-08-23-2.21
2026-08-22-2.79
2026-08-21-2.50
2026-08-20-2.74
2026-08-19-0.91
2026-08-18-3.45
2026-08-17-2.82
2026-08-16-1.93
2026-08-15-3.12
2026-08-14-4.47
2026-08-13-5.63
2026-08-12-4.58
2026-08-11-3.77
2026-08-10-5.17
2026-08-09-6.18
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-0.95

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.82 · P90 |e| 5.09 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.17 -3.17

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -0.14 [-1.50, 0.55] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -6.71 [-6.71, -6.71] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -3.71 [-5.04, -2.38] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.69 [-2.69, -2.69] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -0.38 [-1.54, 0.77] no
NCEP GFS 23 +1.19 [-0.11, 2.31] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -6.42 [-6.42, -6.42] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -3.00 [-3.89, -1.78] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -2.06 [-2.06, -2.06] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -1.60 [-2.57, -0.63] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 +2.08 [1.42, 2.97] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence