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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KSAT · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.58 [1.81, 3.12]1.27-2.56 [-3.11, -1.76]3.06 [2.30, 3.70]15% [5%, 36%]35%70%-0.26+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.58 [1.57, 3.11]1.27-2.56 [-3.11, -1.48]3.06 [2.07, 3.70]15% [3%, 43%]35%70%-0.26+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.58 [1.53, 3.19]1.27-2.56 [-3.19, -1.45]3.06 [1.87, 3.82]15% [0%, 38%]35%70%-0.26+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.58 [1.54, 3.14]1.27-2.56 [-3.14, -1.46]3.06 [1.79, 3.76]15% [0%, 42%]35%70%-0.26+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 1 QC2.16 [1.61, 2.65]1.34-1.97 [-2.50, -1.08]2.63 [1.91, 3.30]25% [11%, 43%]55%70%-0.05+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 1 QC2.16 [1.49, 2.63]1.34-1.97 [-2.52, -0.79]2.63 [1.62, 3.29]25% [10%, 50%]55%70%-0.05+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 1 QC2.16 [1.33, 2.72]1.34-1.97 [-2.60, -0.69]2.63 [1.41, 3.39]25% [8%, 50%]55%70%-0.05+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 1 QC2.16 [1.16, 2.70]1.34-1.97 [-2.56, -0.77]2.63 [1.17, 3.35]25% [9%, 50%]55%70%-0.05+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.00 [2.01, 3.83]1.69-3.00 [-3.83, -2.00]3.78 [2.37, 4.89]14% [0%, 42%]38%62%-0.50+0.162026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.00 [1.56, 3.83]1.69-3.00 [-3.82, -1.56]3.78 [2.21, 4.98]14% [0%, 57%]38%62%-0.50+0.162026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.00 [1.63, 3.88]1.69-3.00 [-3.87, -1.63]3.78 [2.12, 4.99]14% [0%, 50%]38%62%-0.50+0.162026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.00 [1.21, 3.91]1.69-3.00 [-3.91, -1.20]3.78 [1.78, 4.97]14% [0%, 67%]38%62%-0.50+0.162026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.58 [1.64, 3.61]1.87-2.42 [-3.29, -1.33]3.50 [1.93, 4.78]24% [11%, 54%]57%71%-0.29+0.072026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.58 [1.48, 3.66]1.87-2.42 [-3.35, -0.89]3.50 [1.72, 4.89]24% [10%, 71%]57%71%-0.29+0.072026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC2.58 [1.38, 3.67]1.87-2.42 [-3.41, -0.95]3.50 [1.61, 4.85]24% [9%, 67%]57%71%-0.29+0.072026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC2.58 [1.01, 3.70]1.87-2.42 [-3.36, -0.52]3.50 [1.05, 4.85]24% [9%, 80%]57%71%-0.29+0.072026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.37 [0.97, 3.27]2.13+1.57 [-0.43, 3.00]3.06 [1.34, 3.89]30% [5%, 70%]50%70%-0.53-0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.37 [0.48, 3.41]2.13+1.57 [-0.59, 3.12]3.06 [0.59, 3.98]30% [0%, 83%]50%70%-0.53-0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.37 [0.50, 3.42]2.13+1.57 [-0.64, 3.17]3.06 [0.59, 3.98]30% [0%, 82%]50%70%-0.53-0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.37 [0.51, 3.34]2.13+1.57 [-0.66, 3.22]3.06 [0.61, 3.95]30% [0%, 86%]50%70%-0.53-0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 1 QC2.67 [0.85, 3.85]2.17+2.21 [0.10, 3.70]3.47 [1.28, 4.46]30% [5%, 78%]45%60%-0.72-0.372026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 1 QC2.67 [0.48, 3.93]2.17+2.21 [-0.06, 3.81]3.47 [0.48, 4.56]30% [4%, 100%]45%60%-0.72-0.372026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 1 QC2.67 [0.44, 3.95]2.17+2.21 [-0.12, 3.85]3.47 [0.48, 4.54]30% [0%, 100%]45%60%-0.72-0.372026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 1 QC2.67 [0.44, 3.98]2.17+2.21 [-0.13, 3.89]3.47 [0.48, 4.48]30% [3%, 100%]45%60%-0.72-0.372026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.21 [1.17, 3.02]2.12+1.22 [-0.86, 2.84]2.86 [1.51, 3.59]29% [11%, 60%]62%76%-0.50-0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.21 [0.77, 3.06]2.12+1.22 [-0.94, 2.91]2.86 [0.90, 3.65]29% [10%, 78%]62%76%-0.50-0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.21 [0.74, 3.15]2.12+1.22 [-1.01, 2.96]2.86 [0.81, 3.71]29% [9%, 80%]62%76%-0.50-0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.21 [0.66, 3.17]2.12+1.22 [-1.02, 3.00]2.86 [0.66, 3.69]29% [7%, 100%]62%76%-0.50-0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.47 [0.90, 3.64]2.18+1.85 [-0.34, 3.52]3.22 [1.25, 4.18]38% [12%, 78%]43%62%-0.68-0.432026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.47 [0.44, 3.68]2.18+1.85 [-0.41, 3.62]3.22 [0.55, 4.26]38% [10%, 100%]43%62%-0.68-0.432026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC2.47 [0.37, 3.75]2.18+1.85 [-0.48, 3.65]3.22 [0.45, 4.30]38% [9%, 100%]43%62%-0.68-0.432026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC2.47 [0.35, 3.80]2.18+1.85 [-0.51, 3.72]3.22 [0.42, 4.30]38% [7%, 100%]43%62%-0.68-0.432026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: +0.12 °F2026-08-11: -1.97 °F2026-08-12: -2.29 °F2026-08-13: -7.02 °F2026-08-14: -4.17 °F2026-08-16: -0.24 °F2026-08-17: -2.68 °F2026-08-18: -2.4 °F2026-08-19: -1.33 °F2026-08-20: -4.18 °F2026-08-21: -2.48 °F2026-08-22: -3.84 °F2026-08-23: -2.62 °F2026-08-24: -2.11 °F2026-08-25: -1.02 °F2026-08-26: -0.04 °F2026-08-27: -4.17 °F2026-08-28: -4.11 °F2026-08-29: -2.96 °F2026-08-30: -1.8 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.80
2026-08-29-2.96
2026-08-28-4.11
2026-08-27-4.17
2026-08-26-0.04
2026-08-25-1.02
2026-08-24-2.11
2026-08-23-2.62
2026-08-22-3.84
2026-08-21-2.48
2026-08-20-4.18
2026-08-19-1.33
2026-08-18-2.40
2026-08-17-2.68
2026-08-16-0.24
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-4.17
2026-08-13-7.02
2026-08-12-2.29
2026-08-11-1.97
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05+0.12

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 7 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.44 · P90 |e| 4.17 °F-100+10 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.007
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08202.58 -2.56

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 -0.13 [-0.85, 0.62] no
NCEP GFS 20 +1.21 [-0.17, 1.85] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -3.29 [-4.56, -1.71] yes
Persistence (baseline) 20 +0.53 [-0.38, 0.91] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence