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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Los Angeles Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KLAX · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 2 QC3.34 [1.54, 4.61]2.89-2.55 [-4.40, 0.17]4.16 [1.86, 5.21]24% [0%, 50%]35%53%+0.21+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 2 QC3.34 [1.33, 4.65]2.89-2.55 [-4.60, 0.70]4.16 [1.59, 5.30]24% [0%, 50%]35%53%+0.21+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 2 QC3.34 [1.29, 4.81]2.89-2.55 [-4.73, 0.66]4.16 [1.56, 5.33]24% [0%, 50%]35%53%+0.21+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 2 QC3.34 [1.31, 4.81]2.89-2.55 [-4.81, 0.74]4.16 [1.61, 5.35]24% [0%, 50%]35%53%+0.21+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 2 QC5.71 [3.54, 7.30]2.69-5.71 [-7.30, -3.54]6.53 [4.14, 7.84]12% [0%, 25%]12%29%-0.35+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 2 QC5.71 [3.29, 7.43]2.69-5.71 [-7.43, -3.29]6.53 [3.79, 7.90]12% [0%, 25%]12%29%-0.35+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 2 QC5.71 [3.31, 7.67]2.69-5.71 [-7.67, -3.31]6.53 [3.89, 7.95]12% [0%, 25%]12%29%-0.35+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 2 QC5.71 [3.26, 7.70]2.69-5.71 [-7.70, -3.26]6.53 [3.81, 8.00]12% [0%, 27%]12%29%-0.35+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC2.59 [0.70, 4.02]2.66-2.09 [-3.76, 0.49]3.59 [1.03, 4.73]47% [25%, 80%]53%59%+0.39+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC2.59 [0.64, 4.05]2.66-2.09 [-3.82, 0.91]3.59 [0.72, 4.74]47% [25%, 100%]53%59%+0.39+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC2.59 [0.60, 4.18]2.66-2.09 [-4.04, 0.87]3.59 [0.72, 4.85]47% [22%, 100%]53%59%+0.39+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 2 QC2.59 [0.59, 4.33]2.66-2.09 [-4.19, 0.98]3.59 [0.72, 4.97]47% [20%, 100%]53%59%+0.39+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 2 QC5.23 [2.66, 6.87]2.68-5.23 [-6.87, -2.66]6.03 [2.90, 7.46]6% [0%, 25%]12%29%-0.23+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 2 QC5.23 [2.45, 6.89]2.68-5.23 [-6.89, -2.45]6.03 [2.65, 7.47]6% [0%, 30%]12%29%-0.23+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 2 QC5.23 [2.45, 7.11]2.68-5.23 [-7.11, -2.45]6.03 [2.66, 7.62]6% [0%, 25%]12%29%-0.23+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 2 QC5.23 [2.44, 7.22]2.68-5.23 [-7.22, -2.44]6.03 [2.52, 7.71]6% [0%, 33%]12%29%-0.23+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 2 QC2.18 [1.16, 3.49]2.15+0.63 [-0.68, 2.92]2.63 [1.39, 3.83]24% [0%, 43%]53%71%+0.16+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 2 QC2.18 [1.16, 3.76]2.15+0.63 [-0.71, 3.48]2.63 [1.35, 4.00]24% [0%, 43%]53%71%+0.16+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 2 QC2.18 [1.13, 3.76]2.15+0.63 [-0.77, 3.44]2.63 [1.33, 3.99]24% [0%, 43%]53%71%+0.16+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 2 QC2.18 [1.10, 3.96]2.15+0.63 [-1.05, 3.71]2.63 [1.31, 4.23]24% [0%, 44%]53%71%+0.16+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 2 QC2.18 [0.89, 3.21]2.16-0.06 [-1.43, 2.21]2.66 [1.16, 3.57]35% [6%, 80%]53%71%+0.16+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 2 QC2.18 [0.44, 3.38]2.16-0.06 [-1.43, 2.69]2.66 [0.53, 3.69]35% [0%, 100%]53%71%+0.16+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 2 QC2.18 [0.37, 3.37]2.16-0.06 [-1.50, 2.62]2.66 [0.48, 3.68]35% [0%, 100%]53%71%+0.16+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 2 QC2.18 [0.44, 3.41]2.16-0.06 [-1.76, 2.86]2.66 [0.53, 3.71]35% [0%, 100%]53%71%+0.16+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC1.70 [1.00, 3.02]1.44+1.18 [0.25, 2.95]2.16 [1.38, 3.23]41% [9%, 62%]65%76%+0.34+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC1.70 [0.94, 3.30]1.44+1.18 [0.24, 3.30]2.16 [1.33, 3.42]41% [0%, 63%]65%76%+0.34+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC1.70 [0.87, 3.30]1.44+1.18 [0.20, 3.30]2.16 [1.24, 3.39]41% [0%, 67%]65%76%+0.34+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 2 QC1.70 [0.94, 3.43]1.44+1.18 [0.03, 3.43]2.16 [1.34, 3.50]41% [0%, 67%]65%76%+0.34+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 2 QC1.50 [0.94, 2.13]1.41+0.43 [-0.50, 1.91]1.75 [1.04, 2.31]29% [0%, 56%]71%88%+0.42+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 2 QC1.50 [0.90, 2.23]1.41+0.43 [-0.53, 2.11]1.75 [0.99, 2.42]29% [0%, 60%]71%88%+0.42+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 2 QC1.50 [0.90, 2.24]1.41+0.43 [-0.60, 2.14]1.75 [0.99, 2.40]29% [0%, 60%]71%88%+0.42+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 2 QC1.50 [0.89, 2.33]1.41+0.43 [-0.85, 2.19]1.75 [0.99, 2.45]29% [0%, 58%]71%88%+0.42+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: -1.68 °F2026-08-15: +0.43 °F2026-08-16: +1 °F2026-08-17: -4.4 °F2026-08-18: -1.13 °F2026-08-19: -9.12 °F2026-08-20: -2.25 °F2026-08-21: -4.94 °F2026-08-22: -6.05 °F2026-08-23: -7.01 °F2026-08-24: -5.03 °F2026-08-25: -3.98 °F2026-08-26: -4.42 °F2026-08-27: +0.71 °F2026-08-28: +2.37 °F2026-08-29: -0.07 °F2026-08-30: +2.18 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.18
2026-08-29-0.07
2026-08-28+2.37
2026-08-27+0.71
2026-08-26-4.42
2026-08-25-3.98
2026-08-24-5.03
2026-08-23-7.01
2026-08-22-6.05
2026-08-21-4.94
2026-08-20-2.25
2026-08-19-9.12
2026-08-18-1.13
2026-08-17-4.40
2026-08-16+1.00
2026-08-15+0.43
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-1.68

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.37 · P90 |e| 6.43 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08173.34 -2.55

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 +1.22 [-0.97, 3.05] no
NCEP GFS 17 -0.31 [-3.70, 1.65] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -2.21 [-3.97, -0.52] yes
Persistence (baseline) 17 -0.90 [-3.13, 1.36] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAX ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAX (Los Angeles Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence