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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KIAH · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.63 [3.02, 4.07]1.04-3.63 [-4.07, -3.02]3.87 [3.32, 4.30]5% [0%, 17%]9%36%-0.53+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.63 [2.68, 4.23]1.04-3.63 [-4.23, -2.68]3.87 [2.96, 4.47]5% [0%, 20%]9%36%-0.53+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.63 [2.62, 4.32]1.04-3.63 [-4.32, -2.62]3.87 [2.89, 4.57]5% [0%, 19%]9%36%-0.53+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.63 [2.72, 4.26]1.04-3.63 [-4.26, -2.72]3.87 [3.07, 4.51]5% [0%, 19%]9%36%-0.53+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC4.20 [3.60, 4.66]1.00-4.20 [-4.66, -3.60]4.40 [3.85, 4.86]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.78+0.582026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC4.20 [3.28, 4.73]1.00-4.20 [-4.73, -3.28]4.40 [3.48, 4.92]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.78+0.582026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC4.20 [3.24, 4.81]1.00-4.20 [-4.81, -3.24]4.40 [3.44, 5.00]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.78+0.582026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC4.20 [3.33, 4.76]1.00-4.20 [-4.76, -3.33]4.40 [3.53, 4.95]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.78+0.582026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.03 [3.48, 4.61]1.29-4.03 [-4.61, -3.48]4.31 [3.68, 4.90]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-0.70+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.03 [3.35, 4.77]1.29-4.03 [-4.77, -3.35]4.31 [3.50, 5.12]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-0.70+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.03 [3.38, 4.81]1.29-4.03 [-4.81, -3.38]4.31 [3.45, 5.16]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-0.70+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.03 [3.42, 4.88]1.29-4.03 [-4.88, -3.42]4.31 [3.55, 5.16]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-0.70+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC4.60 [4.03, 5.11]1.29-4.60 [-5.11, -4.03]4.85 [4.26, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]9%18%-0.95+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC4.60 [3.91, 5.18]1.29-4.60 [-5.18, -3.91]4.85 [4.14, 5.39]0% [0%, 0%]9%18%-0.95+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC4.60 [3.96, 5.24]1.29-4.60 [-5.24, -3.96]4.85 [4.17, 5.44]0% [0%, 0%]9%18%-0.95+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC4.60 [4.00, 5.23]1.29-4.60 [-5.23, -4.00]4.85 [4.21, 5.43]0% [0%, 0%]9%18%-0.95+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.02 [1.33, 2.80]1.79+1.46 [0.51, 2.57]2.63 [1.81, 3.32]27% [5%, 53%]64%77%+0.37+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.02 [1.29, 3.05]1.79+1.46 [0.45, 2.92]2.63 [1.79, 3.43]27% [0%, 54%]64%77%+0.37+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.02 [1.28, 2.96]1.79+1.46 [0.38, 2.74]2.63 [1.68, 3.40]27% [0%, 57%]64%77%+0.37+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.02 [1.15, 3.01]1.79+1.46 [0.28, 2.85]2.63 [1.49, 3.44]27% [0%, 56%]64%77%+0.37+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC1.93 [1.36, 2.63]1.86+1.01 [-0.01, 2.23]2.49 [1.75, 3.13]32% [8%, 54%]64%77%+0.40+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC1.93 [1.32, 2.85]1.86+1.01 [-0.08, 2.62]2.49 [1.74, 3.22]32% [0%, 54%]64%77%+0.40+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC1.93 [1.30, 2.76]1.86+1.01 [-0.17, 2.41]2.49 [1.53, 3.22]32% [0%, 57%]64%77%+0.40+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC1.93 [1.22, 2.78]1.86+1.01 [-0.27, 2.55]2.49 [1.46, 3.24]32% [0%, 56%]64%77%+0.40+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.70 [1.24, 2.21]1.46+1.02 [0.24, 1.92]2.01 [1.43, 2.53]23% [6%, 41%]68%91%+0.47+0.552026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.70 [1.16, 2.33]1.46+1.02 [0.20, 2.12]2.01 [1.39, 2.63]23% [0%, 44%]68%91%+0.47+0.552026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.70 [1.10, 2.32]1.46+1.02 [0.17, 2.03]2.01 [1.34, 2.61]23% [0%, 46%]68%91%+0.47+0.552026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.70 [1.13, 2.34]1.46+1.02 [0.09, 2.03]2.01 [1.35, 2.64]23% [0%, 46%]68%91%+0.47+0.552026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC1.61 [1.20, 2.04]1.55+0.58 [-0.25, 1.55]1.92 [1.46, 2.34]27% [14%, 39%]68%91%+0.50+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC1.61 [1.16, 2.15]1.55+0.58 [-0.26, 1.78]1.92 [1.41, 2.42]27% [5%, 42%]68%91%+0.50+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC1.61 [1.12, 2.13]1.55+0.58 [-0.36, 1.67]1.92 [1.38, 2.41]27% [0%, 43%]68%91%+0.50+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC1.61 [1.08, 2.16]1.55+0.58 [-0.41, 1.67]1.92 [1.36, 2.43]27% [0%, 44%]68%91%+0.50+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -1.65 °F2026-08-10: -0.41 °F2026-08-11: -3.54 °F2026-08-12: -4.29 °F2026-08-13: -3.69 °F2026-08-14: -2.92 °F2026-08-15: -4.85 °F2026-08-16: -6.07 °F2026-08-17: -4.14 °F2026-08-18: -2.99 °F2026-08-19: -2.91 °F2026-08-20: -3.47 °F2026-08-21: -3.86 °F2026-08-22: -3.59 °F2026-08-23: -2.52 °F2026-08-24: -5 °F2026-08-25: -2.16 °F2026-08-26: -4 °F2026-08-27: -2.32 °F2026-08-28: -4.05 °F2026-08-29: -5.21 °F2026-08-30: -6.18 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-6.18
2026-08-29-5.21
2026-08-28-4.05
2026-08-27-2.32
2026-08-26-4.00
2026-08-25-2.16
2026-08-24-5.00
2026-08-23-2.52
2026-08-22-3.59
2026-08-21-3.86
2026-08-20-3.47
2026-08-19-2.91
2026-08-18-2.99
2026-08-17-4.14
2026-08-16-6.07
2026-08-15-4.85
2026-08-14-2.92
2026-08-13-3.69
2026-08-12-4.29
2026-08-11-3.54
2026-08-10-0.41
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-1.65

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.64 · P90 |e| 5.19 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.63 -3.63

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.15 [-1.35, 0.94] no
NCEP GFS 22 +1.33 [-0.20, 2.48] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -3.20 [-4.37, -2.14] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.26 [-0.82, 2.14] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence