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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 3

KIAH · aifs_single · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.66 [2.98, 4.36]1.12-3.61 [-4.36, -2.86]3.89 [3.18, 4.57]4% [0%, 10%]4%37%-0.54+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.66 [2.85, 4.43]1.12-3.61 [-4.43, -2.73]3.89 [3.05, 4.60]4% [0%, 11%]4%37%-0.54+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.66 [2.80, 4.49]1.12-3.61 [-4.49, -2.68]3.89 [2.98, 4.67]4% [0%, 11%]4%37%-0.54+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.66 [2.84, 4.50]1.12-3.61 [-4.50, -2.74]3.89 [3.00, 4.70]4% [0%, 11%]4%37%-0.54+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC3.93 [3.23, 4.64]1.13-3.91 [-4.64, -3.18]4.17 [3.47, 4.84]4% [0%, 10%]4%30%-0.66+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC3.93 [3.09, 4.71]1.13-3.91 [-4.71, -3.04]4.17 [3.33, 4.87]4% [0%, 11%]4%30%-0.66+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC3.93 [3.04, 4.80]1.13-3.91 [-4.80, -2.98]4.17 [3.26, 4.98]4% [0%, 11%]4%30%-0.66+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC3.93 [3.07, 4.80]1.13-3.91 [-4.80, -3.02]4.17 [3.29, 4.98]4% [0%, 11%]4%30%-0.66+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.79 [3.01, 4.52]1.15-3.79 [-4.52, -3.01]4.05 [3.34, 4.64]4% [0%, 10%]7%30%-0.60+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.79 [2.89, 4.60]1.15-3.79 [-4.60, -2.89]4.05 [3.19, 4.72]4% [0%, 11%]7%30%-0.60+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.79 [2.82, 4.67]1.15-3.79 [-4.67, -2.82]4.05 [3.12, 4.75]4% [0%, 11%]7%30%-0.60+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.79 [2.86, 4.64]1.15-3.79 [-4.64, -2.86]4.05 [3.16, 4.75]4% [0%, 11%]7%30%-0.60+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC4.10 [3.36, 4.81]1.18-4.10 [-4.81, -3.36]4.34 [3.64, 4.93]4% [0%, 10%]4%26%-0.73+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC4.10 [3.23, 4.92]1.18-4.10 [-4.92, -3.23]4.34 [3.51, 5.02]4% [0%, 11%]4%26%-0.73+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC4.10 [3.13, 4.97]1.18-4.10 [-4.97, -3.13]4.34 [3.42, 5.04]4% [0%, 11%]4%26%-0.73+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC4.10 [3.18, 4.95]1.18-4.10 [-4.95, -3.18]4.34 [3.47, 5.05]4% [0%, 11%]4%26%-0.73+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.55 [1.01, 1.94]1.55-0.05 [-1.27, 1.01]1.93 [1.39, 2.25]33% [13%, 58%]70%81%+0.46+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.55 [0.95, 1.96]1.55-0.05 [-1.28, 1.17]1.93 [1.32, 2.27]33% [14%, 65%]70%81%+0.46+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.55 [0.92, 1.99]1.55-0.05 [-1.43, 1.21]1.93 [1.27, 2.28]33% [12%, 62%]70%81%+0.46+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.55 [0.86, 1.98]1.55-0.05 [-1.44, 1.16]1.93 [1.10, 2.28]33% [12%, 64%]70%81%+0.46+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC1.58 [0.94, 2.06]1.59-0.24 [-1.48, 0.85]1.97 [1.38, 2.36]41% [18%, 74%]63%81%+0.45+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC1.58 [0.87, 2.11]1.59-0.24 [-1.49, 1.00]1.97 [1.29, 2.38]41% [18%, 82%]63%81%+0.45+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC1.58 [0.82, 2.16]1.59-0.24 [-1.64, 1.06]1.97 [1.28, 2.42]41% [17%, 83%]63%81%+0.45+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC1.58 [0.79, 2.13]1.59-0.24 [-1.68, 0.99]1.97 [1.08, 2.43]41% [15%, 89%]63%81%+0.45+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.58 [0.97, 2.08]1.58-0.21 [-1.43, 0.88]1.97 [1.40, 2.33]41% [17%, 71%]63%85%+0.45+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.58 [0.87, 2.10]1.58-0.21 [-1.44, 1.07]1.97 [1.30, 2.36]41% [15%, 77%]63%85%+0.45+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.58 [0.83, 2.10]1.58-0.21 [-1.58, 1.07]1.97 [1.26, 2.38]41% [14%, 79%]63%85%+0.45+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.58 [0.77, 2.11]1.58-0.21 [-1.59, 1.00]1.97 [1.09, 2.36]41% [14%, 81%]63%85%+0.45+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC1.62 [0.93, 2.19]1.60-0.39 [-1.64, 0.72]2.02 [1.38, 2.44]41% [17%, 71%]63%81%+0.44+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC1.62 [0.85, 2.22]1.60-0.39 [-1.66, 0.91]2.02 [1.28, 2.47]41% [15%, 77%]63%81%+0.44+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC1.62 [0.78, 2.25]1.60-0.39 [-1.79, 0.95]2.02 [1.24, 2.52]41% [14%, 79%]63%81%+0.44+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC1.62 [0.74, 2.26]1.60-0.39 [-1.84, 0.84]2.02 [1.12, 2.52]41% [14%, 81%]63%81%+0.44+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -4.34 °F2026-08-05: -4.32 °F2026-08-06: -2.06 °F2026-08-07: -4.08 °F2026-08-08: -2.38 °F2026-08-09: -2.77 °F2026-08-10: +0.69 °F2026-08-11: -2.41 °F2026-08-12: -3.63 °F2026-08-13: -2.25 °F2026-08-14: -2.37 °F2026-08-15: -3.77 °F2026-08-16: -4.8 °F2026-08-17: -4.62 °F2026-08-18: -4.46 °F2026-08-19: -3.42 °F2026-08-20: -4.41 °F2026-08-21: -4.31 °F2026-08-22: -7.05 °F2026-08-23: -2.96 °F2026-08-24: -6.21 °F2026-08-25: -3.78 °F2026-08-26: -4.38 °F2026-08-27: -5.04 °F2026-08-28: -2.41 °F2026-08-29: -3.16 °F2026-08-30: -2.75 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.75
2026-08-29-3.16
2026-08-28-2.41
2026-08-27-5.04
2026-08-26-4.38
2026-08-25-3.78
2026-08-24-6.21
2026-08-23-2.96
2026-08-22-7.05
2026-08-21-4.31
2026-08-20-4.41
2026-08-19-3.42
2026-08-18-4.46
2026-08-17-4.62
2026-08-16-4.80
2026-08-15-3.77
2026-08-14-2.37
2026-08-13-2.25
2026-08-12-3.63
2026-08-11-2.41
2026-08-10+0.69
2026-08-09-2.77
2026-08-08-2.38
2026-08-07-4.08
2026-08-06-2.06
2026-08-05-4.32
2026-08-04-4.34

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 9 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 9 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.77 · P90 |e| 4.9 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.009
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.009
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08273.66 -3.61

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 27 +1.53 [0.32, 2.63] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.77 [-3.13, -2.29] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.15 [-0.94, 1.35] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 +1.29 [-0.06, 2.60] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH aifs_single lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model aifs_single, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence