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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KSAT · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.70 [2.04, 3.54]0.93-2.70 [-3.54, -2.04]3.01 [2.37, 3.83]11% [0%, 29%]17%67%-0.25+0.582026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.70 [2.01, 3.63]0.93-2.70 [-3.63, -2.01]3.01 [2.27, 3.93]11% [0%, 31%]17%67%-0.25+0.582026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.70 [1.98, 3.66]0.93-2.70 [-3.66, -1.98]3.01 [2.27, 3.97]11% [0%, 33%]17%67%-0.25+0.582026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.70 [1.93, 3.75]0.93-2.70 [-3.75, -1.93]3.01 [2.24, 3.98]11% [0%, 33%]17%67%-0.25+0.582026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.26 [1.72, 2.97]1.05-2.12 [-2.96, -1.45]2.55 [1.91, 3.33]17% [0%, 35%]44%72%-0.04+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.26 [1.62, 3.02]1.05-2.12 [-2.97, -1.44]2.55 [1.81, 3.41]17% [0%, 38%]44%72%-0.04+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.26 [1.49, 3.04]1.05-2.12 [-3.02, -1.44]2.55 [1.49, 3.45]17% [0%, 40%]44%72%-0.04+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC2.26 [1.49, 3.13]1.05-2.12 [-3.12, -1.36]2.55 [1.58, 3.45]17% [0%, 41%]44%72%-0.04+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.85 [2.25, 3.59]1.17-2.85 [-3.59, -2.25]3.21 [2.39, 3.96]5% [0%, 14%]30%60%-0.32+0.462026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.85 [2.19, 3.73]1.17-2.85 [-3.73, -2.19]3.21 [2.32, 4.09]5% [0%, 14%]30%60%-0.32+0.462026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.85 [2.04, 3.76]1.17-2.85 [-3.76, -2.04]3.21 [2.18, 4.15]5% [0%, 14%]30%60%-0.32+0.462026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.85 [2.04, 3.77]1.17-2.85 [-3.77, -2.04]3.21 [2.17, 4.14]5% [0%, 14%]30%60%-0.32+0.462026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC2.33 [1.70, 3.16]1.30-2.33 [-3.16, -1.70]2.82 [1.91, 3.61]25% [9%, 39%]50%65%-0.08+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC2.33 [1.62, 3.30]1.30-2.33 [-3.30, -1.61]2.82 [1.83, 3.76]25% [0%, 39%]50%65%-0.08+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC2.33 [1.60, 3.34]1.30-2.33 [-3.34, -1.60]2.82 [1.67, 3.79]25% [0%, 40%]50%65%-0.08+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC2.33 [1.60, 3.32]1.30-2.33 [-3.32, -1.60]2.82 [1.67, 3.77]25% [0%, 40%]50%65%-0.08+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.68 [1.25, 3.58]2.36+1.64 [-0.96, 3.32]3.38 [1.53, 4.21]22% [0%, 63%]61%61%-0.51-0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.68 [0.92, 3.61]2.36+1.64 [-1.09, 3.42]3.38 [0.96, 4.28]22% [0%, 78%]61%61%-0.51-0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.68 [0.96, 3.66]2.36+1.64 [-1.17, 3.43]3.38 [0.96, 4.29]22% [0%, 78%]61%61%-0.51-0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.68 [0.91, 3.57]2.36+1.64 [-1.15, 3.43]3.38 [0.96, 4.22]22% [0%, 79%]61%61%-0.51-0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.88 [0.85, 4.08]2.44+2.23 [-0.46, 3.96]3.75 [1.25, 4.74]28% [8%, 69%]39%67%-0.62-0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.88 [0.43, 4.12]2.44+2.23 [-0.54, 4.05]3.75 [0.53, 4.82]28% [7%, 83%]39%67%-0.62-0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.88 [0.43, 4.16]2.44+2.23 [-0.65, 4.09]3.75 [0.53, 4.83]28% [5%, 83%]39%67%-0.62-0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC2.88 [0.43, 4.09]2.44+2.23 [-0.63, 4.08]3.75 [0.49, 4.78]28% [0%, 90%]39%67%-0.62-0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.79 [1.51, 3.83]2.61+1.37 [-1.23, 3.43]3.52 [1.77, 4.54]10% [0%, 22%]55%70%-0.69-0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.79 [1.11, 3.94]2.61+1.37 [-1.33, 3.57]3.52 [1.31, 4.63]10% [0%, 24%]55%70%-0.69-0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.79 [1.12, 3.91]2.61+1.37 [-1.40, 3.64]3.52 [1.31, 4.60]10% [0%, 25%]55%70%-0.69-0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.79 [1.14, 3.85]2.61+1.37 [-1.41, 3.72]3.52 [1.31, 4.55]10% [0%, 25%]55%70%-0.69-0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC3.00 [1.19, 4.35]2.66+1.98 [-0.67, 4.05]3.87 [1.47, 5.12]15% [0%, 45%]45%65%-0.82-0.572026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC3.00 [0.71, 4.50]2.66+1.98 [-0.76, 4.24]3.87 [0.86, 5.23]15% [0%, 67%]45%65%-0.82-0.572026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC3.00 [0.71, 4.46]2.66+1.98 [-0.83, 4.27]3.87 [0.87, 5.19]15% [0%, 67%]45%65%-0.82-0.572026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC3.00 [0.73, 4.50]2.66+1.98 [-0.87, 4.38]3.87 [0.89, 5.19]15% [0%, 62%]45%65%-0.82-0.572026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -2.24 °F2026-08-12: -2.53 °F2026-08-13: -6.12 °F2026-08-14: -4.26 °F2026-08-16: -2.99 °F2026-08-17: -2.85 °F2026-08-19: -2.07 °F2026-08-20: -2.81 °F2026-08-21: -3.72 °F2026-08-22: -2.4 °F2026-08-23: -2.73 °F2026-08-24: -2.19 °F2026-08-25: -1.48 °F2026-08-26: -0.31 °F2026-08-27: -3.28 °F2026-08-28: -3.34 °F2026-08-29: -3.24 °F2026-08-30: -0.02 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.02
2026-08-29-3.24
2026-08-28-3.34
2026-08-27-3.28
2026-08-26-0.31
2026-08-25-1.48
2026-08-24-2.19
2026-08-23-2.73
2026-08-22-2.40
2026-08-21-3.72
2026-08-20-2.81
2026-08-19-2.07
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-2.85
2026-08-16-2.99
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-4.26
2026-08-13-6.12
2026-08-12-2.53
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-2.24

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 9 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.77 · P90 |e| 3.88 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.009
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08182.70 -2.70

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.08 [-0.79, 1.06] no
NCEP GFS 18 +0.78 [-1.70, 2.42] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -3.39 [-4.97, -1.38] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 +0.53 [-0.53, 1.76] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence