Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 5

KSAT · aifs_single · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.77 [2.08, 3.44]1.16-2.76 [-3.44, -2.03]3.11 [2.39, 3.73]8% [0%, 22%]32%52%-0.48+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.77 [1.92, 3.58]1.16-2.76 [-3.58, -1.89]3.11 [2.16, 3.86]8% [0%, 25%]32%52%-0.48+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.77 [1.80, 3.55]1.16-2.76 [-3.55, -1.75]3.11 [2.08, 3.86]8% [0%, 29%]32%52%-0.48+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.77 [1.80, 3.59]1.16-2.76 [-3.58, -1.74]3.11 [2.11, 3.88]8% [0%, 29%]32%52%-0.48+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.41 [1.79, 3.05]1.18-2.36 [-3.03, -1.62]2.77 [2.04, 3.40]16% [3%, 36%]48%68%-0.28+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.41 [1.62, 3.18]1.18-2.36 [-3.18, -1.46]2.77 [1.84, 3.53]16% [0%, 41%]48%68%-0.28+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC2.41 [1.53, 3.17]1.18-2.36 [-3.17, -1.35]2.77 [1.76, 3.53]16% [0%, 44%]48%68%-0.28+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC2.41 [1.54, 3.20]1.18-2.36 [-3.19, -1.33]2.77 [1.77, 3.54]16% [0%, 50%]48%68%-0.28+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.22 [2.59, 3.64]1.03-3.22 [-3.64, -2.59]3.48 [3.02, 3.82]4% [0%, 15%]17%50%-0.65+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.22 [2.46, 3.70]1.03-3.22 [-3.70, -2.46]3.48 [2.93, 3.85]4% [0%, 18%]17%50%-0.65+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.22 [2.43, 3.71]1.03-3.22 [-3.71, -2.43]3.48 [2.92, 3.86]4% [0%, 20%]17%50%-0.65+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.22 [2.37, 3.73]1.03-3.22 [-3.73, -2.37]3.48 [2.95, 3.88]4% [0%, 20%]17%50%-0.65+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.82 [2.24, 3.22]1.03-2.80 [-3.21, -2.17]3.09 [2.67, 3.42]8% [0%, 27%]21%54%-0.44+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.82 [2.13, 3.27]1.03-2.80 [-3.27, -2.06]3.09 [2.58, 3.45]8% [0%, 33%]21%54%-0.44+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.82 [2.08, 3.31]1.03-2.80 [-3.31, -1.99]3.09 [2.57, 3.48]8% [0%, 33%]21%54%-0.44+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC2.82 [2.03, 3.31]1.03-2.80 [-3.31, -1.96]3.09 [2.60, 3.48]8% [0%, 37%]21%54%-0.44+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC1.55 [1.20, 1.97]1.42-0.51 [-1.43, 0.50]1.88 [1.46, 2.35]36% [19%, 55%]68%92%-0.10+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC1.55 [1.18, 2.07]1.42-0.51 [-1.47, 0.67]1.88 [1.40, 2.50]36% [18%, 60%]68%92%-0.10+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC1.55 [1.16, 2.05]1.42-0.51 [-1.50, 0.65]1.88 [1.39, 2.45]36% [14%, 58%]68%92%-0.10+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC1.55 [1.14, 2.08]1.42-0.51 [-1.53, 0.62]1.88 [1.37, 2.47]36% [17%, 59%]68%92%-0.10+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC1.49 [1.12, 1.96]1.43-0.27 [-1.21, 0.75]1.84 [1.39, 2.39]36% [20%, 55%]72%92%-0.07+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC1.49 [1.06, 2.13]1.43-0.27 [-1.25, 0.92]1.84 [1.32, 2.53]36% [18%, 60%]72%92%-0.07+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC1.49 [1.07, 2.10]1.43-0.27 [-1.28, 0.91]1.84 [1.34, 2.49]36% [14%, 57%]72%92%-0.07+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC1.49 [1.06, 2.10]1.43-0.27 [-1.31, 0.89]1.84 [1.32, 2.49]36% [17%, 58%]72%92%-0.07+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.65 [1.27, 2.03]1.47-0.80 [-1.79, 0.19]1.94 [1.55, 2.28]33% [17%, 52%]62%83%-0.13+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.65 [1.23, 2.07]1.47-0.80 [-1.87, 0.34]1.94 [1.48, 2.33]33% [15%, 54%]62%83%-0.13+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.65 [1.16, 2.11]1.47-0.80 [-1.88, 0.34]1.94 [1.43, 2.31]33% [14%, 57%]62%83%-0.13+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.65 [1.08, 2.10]1.47-0.80 [-1.90, 0.32]1.94 [1.35, 2.33]33% [15%, 57%]62%83%-0.13+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.59 [1.22, 1.96]1.48-0.57 [-1.57, 0.43]1.87 [1.51, 2.22]33% [18%, 52%]71%88%-0.09+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.59 [1.17, 2.04]1.48-0.57 [-1.64, 0.59]1.87 [1.41, 2.29]33% [16%, 52%]71%88%-0.09+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.59 [1.13, 1.99]1.48-0.57 [-1.67, 0.59]1.87 [1.40, 2.29]33% [14%, 53%]71%88%-0.09+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.59 [1.10, 2.01]1.48-0.57 [-1.68, 0.57]1.87 [1.32, 2.28]33% [15%, 56%]71%88%-0.09+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KSAT, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -2.69 °F2026-08-07: -5.75 °F2026-08-08: -3.62 °F2026-08-09: -5.8 °F2026-08-10: -1.78 °F2026-08-11: -1.26 °F2026-08-12: -2.36 °F2026-08-13: -3.23 °F2026-08-14: -3.12 °F2026-08-15: -2.16 °F2026-08-16: -1.43 °F2026-08-17: -2.24 °F2026-08-18: -1.91 °F2026-08-19: -3.06 °F2026-08-20: -3.53 °F2026-08-21: -4.15 °F2026-08-22: -4.7 °F2026-08-23: -3.97 °F2026-08-24: -3.49 °F2026-08-25: -1.82 °F2026-08-26: -0.55 °F2026-08-27: -3.17 °F2026-08-28: -2.02 °F2026-08-29: -1.37 °F2026-08-30: +0.16 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.16
2026-08-29-1.37
2026-08-28-2.02
2026-08-27-3.17
2026-08-26-0.55
2026-08-25-1.82
2026-08-24-3.49
2026-08-23-3.97
2026-08-22-4.70
2026-08-21-4.15
2026-08-20-3.53
2026-08-19-3.06
2026-08-18-1.91
2026-08-17-2.24
2026-08-16-1.43
2026-08-15-2.16
2026-08-14-3.12
2026-08-13-3.23
2026-08-12-2.36
2026-08-11-1.26
2026-08-10-1.78
2026-08-09-5.80
2026-08-08-3.62
2026-08-07-5.75
2026-08-06-2.69

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KSAT, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.69 · P90 |e| 4.48 °F-100+10 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08252.77 -2.76

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 25 +0.88 [-1.14, 2.00] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.72 [-4.09, -0.27] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.08 [-1.06, 0.79] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 +0.89 [-0.45, 2.18] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT aifs_single lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence