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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KIAH · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.85 [3.06, 4.56]1.45-3.85 [-4.56, -3.06]4.29 [3.46, 4.99]4% [0%, 15%]17%35%-1.27+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.85 [2.90, 4.68]1.45-3.85 [-4.68, -2.90]4.29 [3.35, 5.05]4% [0%, 18%]17%35%-1.27+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.85 [2.96, 4.69]1.45-3.85 [-4.69, -2.96]4.29 [3.39, 5.07]4% [0%, 15%]17%35%-1.27+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.85 [3.03, 4.72]1.45-3.85 [-4.72, -3.03]4.29 [3.41, 5.07]4% [0%, 17%]17%35%-1.27+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC4.49 [3.73, 5.11]1.44-4.49 [-5.11, -3.73]4.85 [4.09, 5.42]4% [0%, 15%]4%17%-1.65+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC4.49 [3.61, 5.17]1.44-4.49 [-5.17, -3.61]4.85 [3.95, 5.45]4% [0%, 18%]4%17%-1.65+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC4.49 [3.65, 5.21]1.44-4.49 [-5.21, -3.65]4.85 [4.02, 5.49]4% [0%, 15%]4%17%-1.65+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC4.49 [3.72, 5.25]1.44-4.49 [-5.25, -3.72]4.85 [4.02, 5.56]4% [0%, 17%]4%17%-1.65+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC4.96 [4.30, 5.77]1.75-4.96 [-5.77, -4.30]5.43 [4.59, 6.39]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.97-0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC4.96 [4.23, 5.80]1.75-4.96 [-5.80, -4.23]5.43 [4.50, 6.44]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.97-0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC4.96 [4.20, 5.84]1.75-4.96 [-5.84, -4.20]5.43 [4.45, 6.47]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.97-0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC4.96 [4.20, 5.87]1.75-4.96 [-5.87, -4.20]5.43 [4.42, 6.47]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.97-0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC5.51 [4.90, 6.16]1.61-5.51 [-6.16, -4.90]5.87 [5.16, 6.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-2.30+0.062026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC5.51 [4.85, 6.19]1.61-5.51 [-6.19, -4.85]5.87 [5.06, 6.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-2.30+0.062026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC5.51 [4.81, 6.23]1.61-5.51 [-6.23, -4.81]5.87 [5.01, 6.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-2.30+0.062026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC5.51 [4.81, 6.24]1.61-5.51 [-6.24, -4.81]5.87 [5.05, 6.73]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-2.30+0.062026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.92 [1.35, 2.55]1.53+1.21 [0.33, 2.10]2.27 [1.52, 2.90]17% [4%, 32%]70%83%+0.17+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.92 [1.31, 2.64]1.53+1.21 [0.17, 2.20]2.27 [1.43, 2.98]17% [0%, 36%]70%83%+0.17+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.92 [1.27, 2.60]1.53+1.21 [0.03, 2.23]2.27 [1.35, 2.95]17% [0%, 38%]70%83%+0.17+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.92 [1.21, 2.65]1.53+1.21 [-0.07, 2.24]2.27 [1.29, 3.00]17% [0%, 40%]70%83%+0.17+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC1.79 [1.33, 2.34]1.58+0.73 [-0.19, 1.67]2.13 [1.56, 2.68]30% [13%, 47%]65%83%+0.22+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC1.79 [1.31, 2.46]1.58+0.73 [-0.37, 1.80]2.13 [1.57, 2.73]30% [0%, 50%]65%83%+0.22+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC1.79 [1.29, 2.43]1.58+0.73 [-0.54, 1.86]2.13 [1.49, 2.73]30% [0%, 50%]65%83%+0.22+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC1.79 [1.27, 2.45]1.58+0.73 [-0.63, 1.79]2.13 [1.47, 2.77]30% [0%, 50%]65%83%+0.22+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.80 [1.29, 2.37]1.63+0.82 [-0.14, 1.77]2.14 [1.52, 2.69]21% [4%, 36%]75%88%+0.20+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.80 [1.27, 2.48]1.63+0.82 [-0.28, 1.86]2.14 [1.49, 2.77]21% [0%, 37%]75%88%+0.20+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.80 [1.28, 2.47]1.63+0.82 [-0.39, 1.91]2.14 [1.47, 2.75]21% [0%, 38%]75%88%+0.20+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.80 [1.26, 2.47]1.63+0.82 [-0.55, 1.91]2.14 [1.48, 2.77]21% [0%, 40%]75%88%+0.20+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.73 [1.34, 2.19]1.71+0.37 [-0.61, 1.40]2.09 [1.68, 2.52]29% [19%, 40%]62%83%+0.23+0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.73 [1.34, 2.33]1.71+0.37 [-0.77, 1.55]2.09 [1.69, 2.64]29% [16%, 41%]62%83%+0.23+0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.73 [1.33, 2.30]1.71+0.37 [-0.86, 1.58]2.09 [1.67, 2.59]29% [16%, 41%]62%83%+0.23+0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.73 [1.30, 2.36]1.71+0.37 [-1.02, 1.61]2.09 [1.64, 2.63]29% [17%, 42%]62%83%+0.23+0.242026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -4.03 °F2026-08-09: -2.74 °F2026-08-10: -0.31 °F2026-08-11: -1.52 °F2026-08-12: -6.91 °F2026-08-13: -4.7 °F2026-08-14: -2.25 °F2026-08-15: -4.47 °F2026-08-16: -6.3 °F2026-08-17: -4.8 °F2026-08-18: -2.9 °F2026-08-19: -1.82 °F2026-08-20: -2.84 °F2026-08-21: -3.05 °F2026-08-22: -4.79 °F2026-08-23: -1.55 °F2026-08-24: -4.92 °F2026-08-25: -3.7 °F2026-08-26: -4.09 °F2026-08-27: -4.37 °F2026-08-28: -9.07 °F2026-08-29: -3.04 °F2026-08-30: -4.34 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.34
2026-08-29-3.04
2026-08-28-9.07
2026-08-27-4.37
2026-08-26-4.09
2026-08-25-3.70
2026-08-24-4.92
2026-08-23-1.55
2026-08-22-4.79
2026-08-21-3.05
2026-08-20-2.84
2026-08-19-1.82
2026-08-18-2.90
2026-08-17-4.80
2026-08-16-6.30
2026-08-15-4.47
2026-08-14-2.25
2026-08-13-4.70
2026-08-12-6.91
2026-08-11-1.52
2026-08-10-0.31
2026-08-09-2.74
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-4.03

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 9 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.03 · P90 |e| 6.03 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.009
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.85 -3.85

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 +0.04 [-0.99, 0.85] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -2.04 [-2.04, -2.04] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -2.56 [-2.66, -2.46] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +0.95 [0.95, 0.95] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -0.01 [-0.82, 0.80] no
NCEP GFS 23 +2.45 [1.30, 3.47] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -1.21 [-1.21, -1.21] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -2.60 [-3.15, -2.09] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +2.20 [2.20, 2.20] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +0.13 [-0.66, 0.91] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +2.15 [0.55, 3.33] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence