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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · Pangu-Weather (IFS init) · lead day 1

KIAH · pangu_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC3.56 [3.43, 3.70]0.13-3.56 [-3.70, -3.43]3.57 [3.43, 3.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.13+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC3.56 [3.43, 3.70]0.13-3.56 [-3.70, -3.43]3.57 [3.43, 3.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.13+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC3.56 [3.43, 3.70]0.13-3.56 [-3.70, -3.43]3.57 [3.43, 3.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.13+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 1 QC3.56 [3.43, 3.70]0.13-3.56 [-3.70, -3.43]3.57 [3.43, 3.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.13+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 1 QC3.64 [3.49, 3.79]0.15-3.64 [-3.79, -3.49]3.64 [3.49, 3.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.28+0.702026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 1 QC3.64 [3.49, 3.79]0.15-3.64 [-3.79, -3.49]3.64 [3.49, 3.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.28+0.702026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 1 QC3.64 [3.49, 3.79]0.15-3.64 [-3.79, -3.49]3.64 [3.49, 3.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.28+0.702026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 1 QC3.64 [3.49, 3.79]0.15-3.64 [-3.79, -3.49]3.64 [3.49, 3.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.28+0.702026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC3.67 [3.48, 3.86]0.19-3.67 [-3.86, -3.48]3.67 [3.48, 3.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.34+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC3.67 [3.48, 3.86]0.19-3.67 [-3.86, -3.48]3.67 [3.48, 3.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.34+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC3.67 [3.48, 3.86]0.19-3.67 [-3.86, -3.48]3.67 [3.48, 3.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.34+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC3.67 [3.48, 3.86]0.19-3.67 [-3.86, -3.48]3.67 [3.48, 3.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.34+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC3.72 [3.52, 3.91]0.19-3.72 [-3.91, -3.52]3.72 [3.52, 3.91]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.43+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC3.72 [3.52, 3.91]0.19-3.72 [-3.91, -3.52]3.72 [3.52, 3.91]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.43+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC3.72 [3.52, 3.91]0.19-3.72 [-3.91, -3.52]3.72 [3.52, 3.91]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.43+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC3.72 [3.52, 3.91]0.19-3.72 [-3.91, -3.52]3.72 [3.52, 3.91]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.43+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.31 [0.13, 0.49]0.18+0.31 [0.13, 0.49]0.36 [0.13, 0.49]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.79+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.31 [0.13, 0.49]0.18+0.31 [0.13, 0.49]0.36 [0.13, 0.49]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.79+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.31 [0.13, 0.49]0.18+0.31 [0.13, 0.49]0.36 [0.13, 0.49]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.79+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.31 [0.13, 0.49]0.18+0.31 [0.13, 0.49]0.36 [0.13, 0.49]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.79+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 1 QC0.34 [0.21, 0.47]0.13+0.34 [0.21, 0.47]0.36 [0.21, 0.47]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.77+0.752026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 1 QC0.34 [0.21, 0.47]0.13+0.34 [0.21, 0.47]0.36 [0.21, 0.47]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.77+0.752026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 1 QC0.34 [0.21, 0.47]0.13+0.34 [0.21, 0.47]0.36 [0.21, 0.47]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.77+0.752026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 1 QC0.34 [0.21, 0.47]0.13+0.34 [0.21, 0.47]0.36 [0.21, 0.47]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.77+0.752026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.48 [0.36, 0.60]0.48-0.12 [-0.60, 0.36]0.50 [0.36, 0.60]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.68+0.042026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.48 [0.36, 0.60]0.48-0.12 [-0.60, 0.36]0.50 [0.36, 0.60]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.68+0.042026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.48 [0.36, 0.60]0.48-0.12 [-0.60, 0.36]0.50 [0.36, 0.60]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.68+0.042026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.48 [0.36, 0.60]0.48-0.12 [-0.60, 0.36]0.50 [0.36, 0.60]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.68+0.042026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC0.43 [0.30, 0.55]0.43-0.13 [-0.55, 0.30]0.45 [0.30, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.71+0.142026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC0.43 [0.30, 0.55]0.43-0.13 [-0.55, 0.30]0.45 [0.30, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.71+0.142026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC0.43 [0.30, 0.55]0.43-0.13 [-0.55, 0.30]0.45 [0.30, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.71+0.142026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC0.43 [0.30, 0.55]0.43-0.13 [-0.55, 0.30]0.45 [0.30, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.71+0.142026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KIAH, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-29: -3.7 °F2026-08-30: -3.43 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.43
2026-08-29-3.70

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KIAH, lead day 1-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 1 day-3.5 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2.5 °F: 0 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.56 · P90 |e| 3.67 °F-50+5 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.501
-3.50-3.001
-3.00-2.500
-2.50-2.000
-2.00-1.500
-1.50-1.000
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.000
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0823.56 -3.56

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 +1.46 [0.93, 2.00] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -2.95 [-2.95, -2.95] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -2.69 [-3.38, -2.01] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +0.04 [0.04, 0.04] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -0.14 [-0.17, -0.12] yes
NCEP GFS 2 +3.08 [3.05, 3.11] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.12 [-2.12, -2.12] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -2.77 [-3.60, -1.93] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 -0.13 [-0.91, 0.66] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +1.29 [1.29, 1.29] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 +3.06 [2.70, 3.43] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH pangu_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model pangu_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence