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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 1

KIAH · aifs_single · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.75 [3.07, 4.36]1.20-3.75 [-4.36, -3.07]4.04 [3.32, 4.64]3% [0%, 10%]14%31%-1.53+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.75 [2.93, 4.49]1.20-3.75 [-4.49, -2.93]4.04 [3.18, 4.73]3% [0%, 10%]14%31%-1.53+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.75 [2.90, 4.49]1.20-3.75 [-4.49, -2.90]4.04 [3.19, 4.74]3% [0%, 10%]14%31%-1.53+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.75 [2.91, 4.54]1.20-3.75 [-4.54, -2.91]4.04 [3.17, 4.76]3% [0%, 11%]14%31%-1.53+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC4.05 [3.37, 4.65]1.20-4.05 [-4.65, -3.37]4.32 [3.62, 4.92]0% [0%, 0%]7%28%-1.73+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC4.05 [3.24, 4.80]1.20-4.05 [-4.80, -3.24]4.32 [3.48, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]7%28%-1.73+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC4.05 [3.17, 4.78]1.20-4.05 [-4.78, -3.17]4.32 [3.44, 5.02]0% [0%, 0%]7%28%-1.73+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC4.05 [3.18, 4.84]1.20-4.05 [-4.84, -3.18]4.32 [3.43, 5.08]0% [0%, 0%]7%28%-1.73+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC4.08 [3.36, 4.72]1.29-4.08 [-4.72, -3.36]4.38 [3.62, 5.02]0% [0%, 0%]7%28%-1.75+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC4.08 [3.22, 4.85]1.29-4.08 [-4.85, -3.22]4.38 [3.47, 5.11]0% [0%, 0%]7%28%-1.75+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC4.08 [3.21, 4.85]1.29-4.08 [-4.85, -3.21]4.38 [3.48, 5.10]0% [0%, 0%]7%28%-1.75+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC4.08 [3.23, 4.87]1.29-4.08 [-4.87, -3.23]4.38 [3.48, 5.12]0% [0%, 0%]7%28%-1.75+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC4.38 [3.68, 5.01]1.29-4.38 [-5.01, -3.68]4.67 [3.92, 5.29]0% [0%, 0%]7%21%-1.95+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC4.38 [3.53, 5.14]1.29-4.38 [-5.14, -3.53]4.67 [3.77, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]7%21%-1.95+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC4.38 [3.51, 5.12]1.29-4.38 [-5.12, -3.51]4.67 [3.76, 5.39]0% [0%, 0%]7%21%-1.95+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC4.38 [3.55, 5.15]1.29-4.38 [-5.15, -3.55]4.67 [3.78, 5.42]0% [0%, 0%]7%21%-1.95+0.132026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.60 [1.22, 1.98]1.59-0.32 [-1.19, 0.54]2.03 [1.61, 2.40]45% [29%, 60%]69%83%+0.23+0.252026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.60 [1.21, 2.09]1.59-0.32 [-1.33, 0.66]2.03 [1.61, 2.54]45% [26%, 62%]69%83%+0.23+0.252026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.60 [1.15, 2.06]1.59-0.32 [-1.50, 0.79]2.03 [1.57, 2.49]45% [25%, 64%]69%83%+0.23+0.252026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.60 [1.17, 2.18]1.59-0.32 [-1.56, 0.71]2.03 [1.61, 2.61]45% [25%, 62%]69%83%+0.23+0.252026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC1.68 [1.28, 2.09]1.62-0.51 [-1.41, 0.38]2.11 [1.66, 2.52]38% [21%, 57%]69%79%+0.19+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC1.68 [1.26, 2.20]1.62-0.51 [-1.54, 0.51]2.11 [1.66, 2.67]38% [20%, 57%]69%79%+0.19+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC1.68 [1.19, 2.18]1.62-0.51 [-1.70, 0.69]2.11 [1.57, 2.63]38% [19%, 57%]69%79%+0.19+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC1.68 [1.20, 2.31]1.62-0.51 [-1.77, 0.59]2.11 [1.62, 2.77]38% [20%, 57%]69%79%+0.19+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.60 [1.25, 1.94]1.55-0.55 [-1.49, 0.40]2.03 [1.64, 2.36]41% [27%, 57%]66%86%+0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.60 [1.19, 2.06]1.55-0.55 [-1.64, 0.54]2.03 [1.59, 2.52]41% [25%, 60%]66%86%+0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.60 [1.15, 2.05]1.55-0.55 [-1.80, 0.69]2.03 [1.54, 2.49]41% [24%, 61%]66%86%+0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.60 [1.20, 2.13]1.55-0.55 [-1.83, 0.61]2.03 [1.60, 2.58]41% [23%, 60%]66%86%+0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC1.66 [1.25, 2.06]1.59-0.73 [-1.70, 0.25]2.11 [1.69, 2.49]34% [17%, 55%]62%86%+0.20+0.252026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC1.66 [1.20, 2.18]1.59-0.73 [-1.83, 0.42]2.11 [1.61, 2.67]34% [17%, 58%]62%86%+0.20+0.252026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC1.66 [1.13, 2.20]1.59-0.73 [-1.96, 0.53]2.11 [1.54, 2.63]34% [15%, 58%]62%86%+0.20+0.252026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC1.66 [1.20, 2.24]1.59-0.73 [-2.02, 0.46]2.11 [1.63, 2.75]34% [14%, 58%]62%86%+0.20+0.252026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -6.17 °F2026-08-03: -5.3 °F2026-08-04: -4.04 °F2026-08-05: -2.99 °F2026-08-06: -3.09 °F2026-08-07: -3.64 °F2026-08-08: -1.95 °F2026-08-09: -1.75 °F2026-08-10: -2.1 °F2026-08-11: -0.97 °F2026-08-12: -4.39 °F2026-08-13: -3.12 °F2026-08-14: -2.29 °F2026-08-15: -3.52 °F2026-08-16: -5.27 °F2026-08-17: -4.86 °F2026-08-18: -4.2 °F2026-08-19: -2.14 °F2026-08-20: -3.44 °F2026-08-21: -4.34 °F2026-08-22: -6.01 °F2026-08-23: -3.72 °F2026-08-24: -5.27 °F2026-08-25: -3.82 °F2026-08-26: -3.7 °F2026-08-27: -7.57 °F2026-08-28: -4.8 °F2026-08-29: -1.7 °F2026-08-30: -2.5 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.50
2026-08-29-1.70
2026-08-28-4.80
2026-08-27-7.57
2026-08-26-3.70
2026-08-25-3.82
2026-08-24-5.27
2026-08-23-3.72
2026-08-22-6.01
2026-08-21-4.34
2026-08-20-3.44
2026-08-19-2.14
2026-08-18-4.20
2026-08-17-4.86
2026-08-16-5.27
2026-08-15-3.52
2026-08-14-2.29
2026-08-13-3.12
2026-08-12-4.39
2026-08-11-0.97
2026-08-10-2.10
2026-08-09-1.75
2026-08-08-1.95
2026-08-07-3.64
2026-08-06-3.09
2026-08-05-2.99
2026-08-04-4.04
2026-08-03-5.30
2026-08-02-6.17

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.7 · P90 |e| 5.45 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08293.75 -3.75

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -3.88 [-3.88, -3.88] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -4.16 [-4.30, -4.01] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.89 [-0.89, -0.89] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -1.61 [-2.17, -1.04] yes
NCEP GFS 29 +2.51 [1.65, 3.36] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -3.05 [-3.05, -3.05] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -2.63 [-3.19, -2.20] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 -0.04 [-0.85, 0.99] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.36 [0.36, 0.36] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -1.46 [-2.00, -0.93] yes
Persistence (baseline) 29 +2.26 [1.06, 3.31] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH aifs_single lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model aifs_single, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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