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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Phoenix Sky Harbor · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KPHX · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.42 [2.18, 4.86]3.45-1.93 [-4.24, 0.95]5.03 [2.56, 6.84]22% [7%, 32%]50%61%+0.38+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.42 [2.15, 4.93]3.45-1.93 [-4.44, 1.36]5.03 [2.39, 6.96]22% [0%, 32%]50%61%+0.38+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.42 [2.11, 4.92]3.45-1.93 [-4.50, 1.56]5.03 [2.37, 6.97]22% [0%, 32%]50%61%+0.38+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.42 [2.14, 5.00]3.45-1.93 [-4.47, 1.46]5.03 [2.41, 6.99]22% [0%, 33%]50%61%+0.38+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.43 [2.34, 4.71]3.45-1.79 [-4.15, 1.08]4.93 [2.72, 6.66]33% [10%, 50%]50%56%+0.38+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.43 [2.28, 4.80]3.45-1.79 [-4.31, 1.55]4.93 [2.58, 6.75]33% [0%, 50%]50%56%+0.38+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.43 [2.27, 4.79]3.45-1.79 [-4.37, 1.79]4.93 [2.56, 6.76]33% [0%, 50%]50%56%+0.38+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC3.43 [2.26, 4.89]3.45-1.79 [-4.31, 1.68]4.93 [2.59, 6.77]33% [0%, 50%]50%56%+0.38+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.99 [1.44, 4.23]2.40-2.19 [-3.51, -0.44]3.76 [1.78, 4.90]24% [0%, 50%]41%59%+0.44+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.99 [1.22, 4.32]2.40-2.19 [-3.54, -0.09]3.76 [1.52, 4.91]24% [0%, 60%]41%59%+0.44+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.99 [1.27, 4.33]2.40-2.19 [-3.62, -0.18]3.76 [1.57, 4.95]24% [0%, 59%]41%59%+0.44+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.99 [1.21, 4.43]2.40-2.19 [-3.68, -0.06]3.76 [1.51, 5.06]24% [0%, 62%]41%59%+0.44+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.01 [1.34, 4.25]2.50-2.16 [-3.51, -0.31]3.82 [1.56, 4.94]24% [0%, 50%]47%59%+0.44+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.01 [1.15, 4.35]2.50-2.16 [-3.52, 0.04]3.82 [1.43, 5.00]24% [0%, 60%]47%59%+0.44+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.01 [1.17, 4.33]2.50-2.16 [-3.57, -0.04]3.82 [1.45, 5.02]24% [0%, 59%]47%59%+0.44+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC3.01 [1.16, 4.45]2.50-2.16 [-3.65, 0.06]3.82 [1.43, 5.11]24% [0%, 62%]47%59%+0.44+0.532026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.49 [3.05, 4.38]3.46-0.30 [-2.26, 1.16]3.88 [3.24, 4.71]6% [0%, 14%]22%33%+0.32+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.49 [3.03, 5.09]3.46-0.30 [-3.04, 1.13]3.88 [3.21, 5.23]6% [0%, 14%]22%33%+0.32+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.49 [3.01, 5.08]3.46-0.30 [-3.20, 1.41]3.88 [3.17, 5.22]6% [0%, 14%]22%33%+0.32+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.49 [3.00, 5.08]3.46-0.30 [-3.25, 1.60]3.88 [3.17, 5.22]6% [0%, 14%]22%33%+0.32+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.56 [3.06, 4.30]3.56+0.37 [-1.64, 1.83]4.04 [3.32, 4.73]11% [0%, 25%]17%44%+0.30+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.56 [3.05, 5.08]3.56+0.37 [-2.35, 1.85]4.04 [3.30, 5.13]11% [0%, 25%]17%44%+0.30+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.56 [3.05, 5.08]3.56+0.37 [-2.46, 2.10]4.04 [3.28, 5.13]11% [0%, 27%]17%44%+0.30+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.56 [3.06, 5.08]3.56+0.37 [-2.49, 2.19]4.04 [3.28, 5.13]11% [0%, 27%]17%44%+0.30+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.27 [2.55, 4.23]3.27-0.01 [-2.62, 2.12]4.32 [3.06, 5.53]18% [5%, 32%]35%59%+0.39+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.27 [2.51, 4.38]3.27-0.01 [-3.79, 2.22]4.32 [3.03, 5.60]18% [0%, 33%]35%59%+0.39+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.27 [2.51, 4.44]3.27-0.01 [-3.78, 2.54]4.32 [3.00, 5.65]18% [0%, 33%]35%59%+0.39+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.27 [2.43, 4.44]3.27-0.01 [-3.78, 2.55]4.32 [2.99, 5.55]18% [0%, 33%]35%59%+0.39+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.37 [2.48, 4.38]3.37+0.79 [-1.76, 2.93]4.48 [3.09, 5.86]18% [0%, 33%]35%53%+0.37+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.37 [2.42, 4.38]3.37+0.79 [-2.84, 3.13]4.48 [3.07, 5.90]18% [0%, 38%]35%53%+0.37+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.37 [2.41, 4.38]3.37+0.79 [-2.86, 3.37]4.48 [3.10, 5.96]18% [0%, 38%]35%53%+0.37+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC3.37 [2.41, 4.46]3.37+0.79 [-2.91, 3.42]4.48 [3.06, 5.88]18% [0%, 40%]35%53%+0.37+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHX, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: -3.24 °F2026-08-14: +4.56 °F2026-08-15: -1.38 °F2026-08-16: -0.63 °F2026-08-17: -6.22 °F2026-08-18: -5.11 °F2026-08-19: -15.92 °F2026-08-20: -0.66 °F2026-08-21: -1.44 °F2026-08-22: -1.37 °F2026-08-23: -7.77 °F2026-08-24: -0.02 °F2026-08-25: -4.4 °F2026-08-26: +0.26 °F2026-08-27: +1.49 °F2026-08-28: +2.98 °F2026-08-29: +1.83 °F2026-08-30: +2.3 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.30
2026-08-29+1.83
2026-08-28+2.98
2026-08-27+1.49
2026-08-26+0.26
2026-08-25-4.40
2026-08-24-0.02
2026-08-23-7.77
2026-08-22-1.37
2026-08-21-1.44
2026-08-20-0.66
2026-08-19-15.92
2026-08-18-5.11
2026-08-17-6.22
2026-08-16-0.63
2026-08-15-1.38
2026-08-14+4.56
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-3.24

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHX, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 6 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.07 · P90 |e| 6.69 °F-200+20 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.006
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.42 -1.93

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -1.80 [-5.28, 1.65] no
NCEP GFS 18 -0.95 [-3.10, 0.42] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -4.37 [-7.91, -0.81] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -2.08 [-3.20, -0.63] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHX ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHX (Phoenix Sky Harbor), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence