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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Los Angeles Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KLAX · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC2.21 [1.42, 2.83]1.59-1.80 [-2.29, -1.20]2.65 [1.88, 3.17]27% [13%, 50%]41%68%+0.05+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC2.21 [1.26, 2.94]1.59-1.80 [-2.31, -1.07]2.65 [1.72, 3.25]27% [11%, 60%]41%68%+0.05+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC2.21 [1.26, 2.99]1.59-1.80 [-2.37, -1.05]2.65 [1.73, 3.29]27% [11%, 56%]41%68%+0.05+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC2.21 [1.26, 2.93]1.59-1.80 [-2.36, -1.01]2.65 [1.72, 3.22]27% [11%, 60%]41%68%+0.05+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC5.35 [4.76, 5.88]1.69-5.35 [-5.88, -4.76]5.76 [5.10, 6.26]9% [0%, 20%]9%9%-1.31+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC5.35 [4.69, 5.89]1.69-5.35 [-5.89, -4.69]5.76 [4.94, 6.30]9% [0%, 21%]9%9%-1.31+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC5.35 [4.67, 6.00]1.69-5.35 [-6.00, -4.67]5.76 [4.90, 6.38]9% [0%, 21%]9%9%-1.31+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC5.35 [4.62, 5.93]1.69-5.35 [-5.93, -4.62]5.76 [4.87, 6.33]9% [0%, 20%]9%9%-1.31+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC2.20 [1.56, 2.68]1.29-1.90 [-2.31, -1.44]2.53 [1.89, 2.96]23% [11%, 44%]41%64%+0.05+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC2.20 [1.36, 2.73]1.29-1.90 [-2.32, -1.27]2.53 [1.69, 2.99]23% [11%, 56%]41%64%+0.05+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC2.20 [1.41, 2.75]1.29-1.90 [-2.41, -1.24]2.53 [1.67, 3.01]23% [10%, 50%]41%64%+0.05+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC2.20 [1.29, 2.75]1.29-1.90 [-2.39, -1.21]2.53 [1.59, 3.02]23% [10%, 55%]41%64%+0.05+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC5.36 [4.93, 5.74]1.33-5.35 [-5.74, -4.92]5.66 [5.12, 6.04]5% [0%, 12%]5%9%-1.31+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC5.36 [4.80, 5.75]1.33-5.35 [-5.75, -4.80]5.66 [4.98, 6.06]5% [0%, 12%]5%9%-1.31+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC5.36 [4.79, 5.81]1.33-5.35 [-5.80, -4.76]5.66 [4.95, 6.12]5% [0%, 12%]5%9%-1.31+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC5.36 [4.78, 5.78]1.33-5.35 [-5.78, -4.78]5.66 [4.89, 6.10]5% [0%, 12%]5%9%-1.31+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC1.07 [0.53, 1.69]1.05+0.72 [-0.11, 1.59]1.37 [0.66, 1.92]55% [18%, 92%]86%95%+0.33+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC1.07 [0.52, 1.73]1.05+0.72 [-0.15, 1.69]1.37 [0.65, 1.95]55% [14%, 93%]86%95%+0.33+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC1.07 [0.52, 1.75]1.05+0.72 [-0.16, 1.72]1.37 [0.64, 1.99]55% [12%, 95%]86%95%+0.33+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC1.07 [0.52, 1.73]1.05+0.72 [-0.16, 1.70]1.37 [0.64, 1.95]55% [11%, 95%]86%95%+0.33+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC1.14 [0.82, 1.49]1.14+0.08 [-0.83, 0.98]1.34 [0.94, 1.73]41% [22%, 63%]91%100%+0.29+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC1.14 [0.76, 1.51]1.14+0.08 [-0.93, 1.09]1.34 [0.90, 1.76]41% [20%, 67%]91%100%+0.29+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC1.14 [0.76, 1.55]1.14+0.08 [-0.92, 1.11]1.34 [0.88, 1.80]41% [19%, 71%]91%100%+0.29+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC1.14 [0.76, 1.52]1.14+0.08 [-0.93, 1.10]1.34 [0.90, 1.77]41% [19%, 67%]91%100%+0.29+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC1.03 [0.70, 1.37]0.84+0.71 [0.12, 1.26]1.24 [0.79, 1.57]55% [31%, 80%]86%100%+0.35+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC1.03 [0.69, 1.39]0.84+0.71 [0.04, 1.31]1.24 [0.78, 1.59]55% [32%, 85%]86%100%+0.35+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC1.03 [0.68, 1.41]0.84+0.71 [0.03, 1.35]1.24 [0.77, 1.61]55% [29%, 89%]86%100%+0.35+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC1.03 [0.68, 1.41]0.84+0.71 [0.02, 1.32]1.24 [0.76, 1.60]55% [29%, 92%]86%100%+0.35+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC0.87 [0.61, 1.08]0.87-0.02 [-0.70, 0.53]1.12 [0.86, 1.30]68% [53%, 83%]91%100%+0.45+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC0.87 [0.59, 1.08]0.87-0.02 [-0.88, 0.58]1.12 [0.87, 1.29]68% [53%, 86%]91%100%+0.45+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC0.87 [0.56, 1.10]0.87-0.02 [-0.82, 0.60]1.12 [0.84, 1.31]68% [50%, 88%]91%100%+0.45+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC0.87 [0.53, 1.12]0.87-0.02 [-0.86, 0.61]1.12 [0.83, 1.32]68% [52%, 90%]91%100%+0.45+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-04: -0.48 °F2026-08-10: +0.5 °F2026-08-11: -3.27 °F2026-08-12: -1.56 °F2026-08-13: -2.1 °F2026-08-14: -4.04 °F2026-08-15: -2.31 °F2026-08-16: +0.23 °F2026-08-17: -2.05 °F2026-08-18: -4.22 °F2026-08-19: -4.45 °F2026-08-20: +3.05 °F2026-08-21: -4.77 °F2026-08-22: -2.83 °F2026-08-23: -2.64 °F2026-08-24: -1.22 °F2026-08-25: +0.45 °F2026-08-26: -0.21 °F2026-08-27: -1.52 °F2026-08-28: +0.24 °F2026-08-29: -3.98 °F2026-08-30: -2.5 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.50
2026-08-29-3.98
2026-08-28+0.24
2026-08-27-1.52
2026-08-26-0.21
2026-08-25+0.45
2026-08-24-1.22
2026-08-23-2.64
2026-08-22-2.83
2026-08-21-4.77
2026-08-20+3.05
2026-08-19-4.45
2026-08-18-4.22
2026-08-17-2.05
2026-08-16+0.23
2026-08-15-2.31
2026-08-14-4.04
2026-08-13-2.10
2026-08-12-1.56
2026-08-11-3.27
2026-08-10+0.50
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-0.48

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 3-5 to -4.5 °F: 1 day-4.5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 1 day-3.5 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2.5 °F: 2 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 2 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 0.5 °F: 3 days0.5 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 1 day3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.21 · P90 |e| 4.2 °F-50+5 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.501
-4.50-4.003
-4.00-3.501
-3.50-3.001
-3.00-2.502
-2.50-2.004
-2.00-1.502
-1.50-1.001
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.002
+0.00+0.503
+0.50+1.001
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.501
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08222.21 -1.80

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.46 [-0.60, 1.32] no
NCEP GFS 22 -0.07 [-1.39, 0.93] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -1.79 [-4.07, -0.77] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 -0.11 [-1.52, 0.84] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAX ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAX (Los Angeles Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence