Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KOKC · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC3.79 [3.24, 4.20]2.79-2.50 [-3.87, -0.85]4.24 [3.69, 4.66]4% [0%, 12%]30%30%-0.13+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC3.79 [2.99, 4.25]2.79-2.50 [-4.01, -0.81]4.24 [3.50, 4.70]4% [0%, 12%]30%30%-0.13+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC3.79 [3.07, 4.27]2.79-2.50 [-4.11, -0.52]4.24 [3.52, 4.73]4% [0%, 12%]30%30%-0.13+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 2 QC3.79 [3.00, 4.29]2.79-2.50 [-4.02, -0.58]4.24 [3.48, 4.73]4% [0%, 12%]30%30%-0.13+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 2 QC3.51 [2.77, 4.20]2.65-2.09 [-3.29, -0.62]4.04 [3.12, 4.85]9% [0%, 22%]26%35%-0.05+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 2 QC3.51 [2.58, 4.22]2.65-2.09 [-3.45, -0.56]4.04 [2.92, 4.90]9% [0%, 22%]26%35%-0.05+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 2 QC3.51 [2.60, 4.23]2.65-2.09 [-3.47, -0.29]4.04 [3.00, 4.89]9% [0%, 25%]26%35%-0.05+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 2 QC3.51 [2.55, 4.28]2.65-2.09 [-3.42, -0.45]4.04 [2.89, 4.94]9% [0%, 25%]26%35%-0.05+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC4.48 [3.89, 5.00]2.28-4.23 [-4.92, -3.42]5.05 [4.58, 5.41]12% [0%, 24%]21%29%-0.27+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC4.48 [3.70, 5.12]2.28-4.23 [-5.07, -3.25]5.05 [4.35, 5.48]12% [0%, 24%]21%29%-0.27+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC4.48 [3.58, 5.15]2.28-4.23 [-5.13, -3.02]5.05 [4.46, 5.52]12% [0%, 26%]21%29%-0.27+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 2 QC4.48 [3.53, 5.09]2.28-4.23 [-5.08, -3.06]5.05 [4.28, 5.45]12% [0%, 25%]21%29%-0.27+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 2 QC4.25 [3.59, 4.76]2.33-3.99 [-4.58, -3.35]4.93 [4.06, 5.56]12% [3%, 27%]21%33%-0.20+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 2 QC4.25 [3.36, 4.76]2.33-3.99 [-4.66, -3.12]4.93 [3.87, 5.59]12% [0%, 33%]21%33%-0.20+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 2 QC4.25 [3.46, 4.85]2.33-3.99 [-4.65, -3.14]4.93 [3.96, 5.62]12% [0%, 33%]21%33%-0.20+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 2 QC4.25 [3.33, 4.81]2.33-3.99 [-4.64, -3.17]4.93 [3.84, 5.65]12% [0%, 39%]21%33%-0.20+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC5.50 [4.88, 6.46]1.87+5.50 [4.88, 6.46]5.91 [5.38, 6.75]4% [0%, 12%]4%17%-0.60+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC5.50 [4.85, 7.06]1.87+5.50 [4.85, 7.06]5.91 [5.34, 7.30]4% [0%, 12%]4%17%-0.60+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC5.50 [4.82, 6.99]1.87+5.50 [4.82, 6.99]5.91 [5.32, 7.28]4% [0%, 12%]4%17%-0.60+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 2 QC5.50 [4.80, 7.19]1.87+5.50 [4.80, 7.19]5.91 [5.34, 7.38]4% [0%, 12%]4%17%-0.60+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 2 QC6.63 [5.90, 7.74]1.99+6.63 [5.90, 7.74]7.06 [6.37, 8.07]0% [0%, 0%]4%9%-0.93+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 2 QC6.63 [5.88, 8.38]1.99+6.63 [5.88, 8.38]7.06 [6.35, 8.61]0% [0%, 0%]4%9%-0.93+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 2 QC6.63 [5.87, 8.36]1.99+6.63 [5.87, 8.36]7.06 [6.34, 8.63]0% [0%, 0%]4%9%-0.93+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 2 QC6.63 [5.81, 8.51]1.99+6.63 [5.81, 8.51]7.06 [6.32, 8.68]0% [0%, 0%]4%9%-0.93+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC4.03 [2.95, 5.51]2.39+4.00 [2.92, 5.50]4.84 [3.90, 6.05]21% [4%, 43%]33%33%-0.21+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC4.03 [2.87, 6.28]2.39+4.00 [2.85, 6.28]4.84 [3.86, 6.61]21% [0%, 44%]33%33%-0.21+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC4.03 [2.84, 6.27]2.39+4.00 [2.83, 6.27]4.84 [3.87, 6.59]21% [0%, 46%]33%33%-0.21+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 2 QC4.03 [2.83, 6.37]2.39+4.00 [2.81, 6.37]4.84 [3.83, 6.65]21% [0%, 44%]33%33%-0.21+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 2 QC5.01 [3.75, 6.71]2.62+5.01 [3.75, 6.71]5.85 [4.75, 7.27]8% [0%, 15%]29%33%-0.50+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 2 QC5.01 [3.67, 7.63]2.62+5.01 [3.67, 7.63]5.85 [4.71, 7.89]8% [0%, 14%]29%33%-0.50+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 2 QC5.01 [3.61, 7.68]2.62+5.01 [3.61, 7.68]5.85 [4.68, 7.93]8% [0%, 14%]29%33%-0.50+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 2 QC5.01 [3.57, 7.68]2.62+5.01 [3.57, 7.68]5.85 [4.66, 7.89]8% [0%, 14%]29%33%-0.50+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -1.01 °F2026-08-09: -3.38 °F2026-08-10: -4.66 °F2026-08-11: -4.34 °F2026-08-12: -4.24 °F2026-08-13: -4.34 °F2026-08-14: -4.89 °F2026-08-15: -3.73 °F2026-08-16: -1.29 °F2026-08-17: +0.96 °F2026-08-18: -5.77 °F2026-08-19: +1.47 °F2026-08-20: -7.46 °F2026-08-21: +1.49 °F2026-08-22: +7.14 °F2026-08-23: +3.74 °F2026-08-24: -4.41 °F2026-08-25: -5.13 °F2026-08-26: -1.29 °F2026-08-27: -1.67 °F2026-08-28: -4.91 °F2026-08-29: -5.86 °F2026-08-30: -3.92 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.92
2026-08-29-5.86
2026-08-28-4.91
2026-08-27-1.67
2026-08-26-1.29
2026-08-25-5.13
2026-08-24-4.41
2026-08-23+3.74
2026-08-22+7.14
2026-08-21+1.49
2026-08-20-7.46
2026-08-19+1.47
2026-08-18-5.77
2026-08-17+0.96
2026-08-16-1.29
2026-08-15-3.73
2026-08-14-4.89
2026-08-13-4.34
2026-08-12-4.24
2026-08-11-4.34
2026-08-10-4.66
2026-08-09-3.38
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-1.01

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.24 · P90 |e| 5.85 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.007
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.79 -2.50

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 +0.09 [-0.63, 0.99] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -3.59 [-3.59, -3.59] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -2.68 [-3.63, -1.72] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.32 [-2.32, -2.32] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -2.24 [-2.80, -1.68] yes
NCEP GFS 23 +1.51 [0.13, 2.69] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -3.76 [-3.76, -3.76] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -3.67 [-4.57, -2.61] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +1.26 [1.26, 1.26] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -0.32 [-0.42, -0.23] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 +0.44 [-0.93, 2.70] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence