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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 1

KOKC · aifs_single · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 2 QC3.72 [3.18, 4.31]1.78-3.45 [-4.02, -2.92]4.16 [3.51, 4.78]10% [0%, 21%]24%28%-0.08+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 2 QC3.72 [3.07, 4.34]1.78-3.45 [-4.07, -2.82]4.16 [3.40, 4.80]10% [0%, 24%]24%28%-0.08+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 2 QC3.72 [3.04, 4.36]1.78-3.45 [-4.16, -2.79]4.16 [3.35, 4.81]10% [0%, 25%]24%28%-0.08+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 2 QC3.72 [3.01, 4.38]1.78-3.45 [-4.10, -2.75]4.16 [3.34, 4.84]10% [0%, 25%]24%28%-0.08+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 2 QC3.73 [3.10, 4.42]1.85-3.48 [-4.11, -2.92]4.24 [3.44, 5.00]10% [0%, 21%]24%28%-0.08+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 2 QC3.73 [2.99, 4.45]1.85-3.48 [-4.14, -2.83]4.24 [3.33, 5.03]10% [0%, 24%]24%28%-0.08+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 2 QC3.73 [2.94, 4.48]1.85-3.48 [-4.22, -2.82]4.24 [3.28, 5.03]10% [0%, 25%]24%28%-0.08+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 2 QC3.73 [2.94, 4.54]1.85-3.48 [-4.20, -2.78]4.24 [3.26, 5.10]10% [0%, 25%]24%28%-0.08+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 2 QC3.87 [3.39, 4.46]1.73-3.81 [-4.36, -3.35]4.40 [3.71, 5.12]10% [0%, 21%]21%31%-0.12+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 2 QC3.87 [3.32, 4.46]1.73-3.81 [-4.41, -3.27]4.40 [3.64, 5.17]10% [0%, 22%]21%31%-0.12+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 2 QC3.87 [3.29, 4.51]1.73-3.81 [-4.47, -3.25]4.40 [3.62, 5.20]10% [0%, 23%]21%31%-0.12+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 2 QC3.87 [3.27, 4.53]1.73-3.81 [-4.45, -3.22]4.40 [3.57, 5.24]10% [0%, 24%]21%31%-0.12+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 2 QC3.88 [3.29, 4.56]1.83-3.84 [-4.52, -3.27]4.50 [3.65, 5.40]14% [0%, 31%]28%31%-0.13+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 2 QC3.88 [3.21, 4.57]1.83-3.84 [-4.53, -3.21]4.50 [3.56, 5.45]14% [0%, 31%]28%31%-0.13+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 2 QC3.88 [3.20, 4.62]1.83-3.84 [-4.61, -3.18]4.50 [3.51, 5.48]14% [0%, 33%]28%31%-0.13+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 2 QC3.88 [3.16, 4.72]1.83-3.84 [-4.62, -3.14]4.50 [3.48, 5.54]14% [0%, 34%]28%31%-0.13+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 2 QC3.10 [1.82, 4.59]2.18+2.79 [1.29, 4.48]3.85 [2.32, 5.22]24% [4%, 43%]41%52%+0.05+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 2 QC3.10 [1.77, 5.01]2.18+2.79 [1.11, 5.00]3.85 [2.25, 5.52]24% [0%, 44%]41%52%+0.05+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 2 QC3.10 [1.68, 4.85]2.18+2.79 [1.11, 4.83]3.85 [2.17, 5.42]24% [0%, 45%]41%52%+0.05+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 2 QC3.10 [1.65, 4.96]2.18+2.79 [1.13, 4.93]3.85 [2.15, 5.48]24% [0%, 45%]41%52%+0.05+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 2 QC3.20 [1.86, 4.74]2.26+2.83 [1.16, 4.62]3.94 [2.34, 5.34]21% [4%, 37%]38%48%+0.01+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 2 QC3.20 [1.80, 5.15]2.26+2.83 [1.01, 5.13]3.94 [2.22, 5.66]21% [0%, 38%]38%48%+0.01+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 2 QC3.20 [1.74, 5.00]2.26+2.83 [0.98, 4.99]3.94 [2.14, 5.52]21% [0%, 38%]38%48%+0.01+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 2 QC3.20 [1.69, 5.13]2.26+2.83 [0.97, 5.12]3.94 [2.11, 5.61]21% [0%, 39%]38%48%+0.01+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 2 QC2.85 [1.72, 4.21]2.16+2.42 [1.01, 4.03]3.58 [2.17, 4.86]28% [11%, 43%]41%52%+0.12+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 2 QC2.85 [1.67, 4.56]2.16+2.42 [0.90, 4.49]3.58 [2.12, 5.15]28% [9%, 45%]41%52%+0.12+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 2 QC2.85 [1.56, 4.43]2.16+2.42 [0.87, 4.34]3.58 [2.00, 4.99]28% [8%, 47%]41%52%+0.12+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 2 QC2.85 [1.60, 4.53]2.16+2.42 [0.93, 4.47]3.58 [2.02, 5.09]28% [8%, 47%]41%52%+0.12+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 2 QC2.99 [1.84, 4.36]2.24+2.46 [0.92, 4.17]3.68 [2.23, 5.00]21% [7%, 35%]41%52%+0.08+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 2 QC2.99 [1.77, 4.72]2.24+2.46 [0.78, 4.69]3.68 [2.15, 5.32]21% [4%, 36%]41%52%+0.08+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 2 QC2.99 [1.65, 4.59]2.24+2.46 [0.79, 4.51]3.68 [2.04, 5.14]21% [0%, 38%]41%52%+0.08+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 2 QC2.99 [1.70, 4.70]2.24+2.46 [0.75, 4.66]3.68 [2.05, 5.24]21% [4%, 36%]41%52%+0.08+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -0.85 °F2026-08-03: -1.29 °F2026-08-04: -4.34 °F2026-08-05: -3.97 °F2026-08-06: -4.88 °F2026-08-07: -3.34 °F2026-08-08: -5.07 °F2026-08-09: -3.92 °F2026-08-10: -3.63 °F2026-08-11: -1.34 °F2026-08-12: -1.51 °F2026-08-13: -3.92 °F2026-08-14: -4.76 °F2026-08-15: -1.93 °F2026-08-16: -4.37 °F2026-08-17: -4.34 °F2026-08-18: -5.76 °F2026-08-19: +0.19 °F2026-08-20: -6.95 °F2026-08-21: +0.52 °F2026-08-22: +3.22 °F2026-08-23: -5.05 °F2026-08-24: -6.51 °F2026-08-25: -7.87 °F2026-08-26: -2.66 °F2026-08-27: -4.78 °F2026-08-28: -4.28 °F2026-08-29: -3.31 °F2026-08-30: -3.33 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.33
2026-08-29-3.31
2026-08-28-4.28
2026-08-27-4.78
2026-08-26-2.66
2026-08-25-7.87
2026-08-24-6.51
2026-08-23-5.05
2026-08-22+3.22
2026-08-21+0.52
2026-08-20-6.95
2026-08-19+0.19
2026-08-18-5.76
2026-08-17-4.34
2026-08-16-4.37
2026-08-15-1.93
2026-08-14-4.76
2026-08-13-3.92
2026-08-12-1.51
2026-08-11-1.34
2026-08-10-3.63
2026-08-09-3.92
2026-08-08-5.07
2026-08-07-3.34
2026-08-06-4.88
2026-08-05-3.97
2026-08-04-4.34
2026-08-03-1.29
2026-08-02-0.85

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -3 °F: 7 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.92 · P90 |e| 5.91 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.007
-4.00-3.007
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08293.72 -3.45

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -4.18 [-4.18, -4.18] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -4.25 [-4.28, -4.22] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.91 [-2.91, -2.91] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -3.81 [-4.24, -3.39] yes
NCEP GFS 29 +1.05 [-0.27, 2.28] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -4.35 [-4.35, -4.35] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -3.31 [-4.52, -2.18] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 -0.09 [-0.99, 0.63] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.67 [0.67, 0.67] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -1.89 [-2.78, -1.01] yes
Persistence (baseline) 29 +0.27 [-0.69, 1.24] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC aifs_single lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model aifs_single, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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