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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Diego Lindbergh · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KSAN · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC5.81 [5.09, 6.51]1.21-5.81 [-6.51, -5.09]6.03 [5.21, 6.80]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC5.81 [5.03, 6.54]1.21-5.81 [-6.54, -5.03]6.03 [5.12, 6.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC5.81 [4.99, 6.59]1.21-5.81 [-6.59, -4.99]6.03 [5.10, 6.89]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC5.81 [4.94, 6.62]1.21-5.81 [-6.62, -4.94]6.03 [5.04, 6.87]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC9.19 [7.85, 10.52]1.59-9.19 [-10.52, -7.85]9.45 [8.00, 10.78]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC9.19 [7.85, 10.56]1.59-9.19 [-10.56, -7.85]9.45 [8.00, 10.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC9.19 [7.74, 10.67]1.59-9.19 [-10.67, -7.74]9.45 [7.88, 10.96]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC9.19 [7.76, 10.70]1.59-9.19 [-10.70, -7.76]9.45 [7.91, 10.94]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC0.82 [0.62, 1.04]0.75-0.43 [-0.78, -0.12]1.00 [0.81, 1.16]68% [48%, 83%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC0.82 [0.59, 1.06]0.75-0.43 [-0.80, -0.10]1.00 [0.77, 1.16]68% [47%, 83%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC0.82 [0.58, 1.05]0.75-0.43 [-0.81, -0.05]1.00 [0.77, 1.15]68% [44%, 85%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC0.82 [0.60, 1.07]0.75-0.43 [-0.81, -0.09]1.00 [0.77, 1.16]68% [45%, 83%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC0.85 [0.71, 0.99]0.84-0.04 [-0.28, 0.23]1.00 [0.83, 1.14]64% [53%, 78%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC0.85 [0.66, 0.97]0.84-0.04 [-0.35, 0.24]1.00 [0.79, 1.14]64% [55%, 81%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC0.85 [0.67, 0.98]0.84-0.04 [-0.38, 0.27]1.00 [0.79, 1.15]64% [53%, 80%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC0.85 [0.66, 0.98]0.84-0.04 [-0.36, 0.28]1.00 [0.76, 1.15]64% [55%, 83%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-01: -5.04 °F2026-08-06: -6.42 °F2026-08-08: -4.75 °F2026-08-09: -7.48 °F2026-08-10: -6.85 °F2026-08-11: -5.67 °F2026-08-12: -5.53 °F2026-08-13: -5.24 °F2026-08-14: -5.41 °F2026-08-15: -3.22 °F2026-08-16: -3.85 °F2026-08-17: -5.64 °F2026-08-18: -4.75 °F2026-08-19: -3.82 °F2026-08-20: -6.74 °F2026-08-21: -6.09 °F2026-08-22: -5.25 °F2026-08-23: -8.77 °F2026-08-24: -5.19 °F2026-08-25: -7.07 °F2026-08-26: -10.8 °F2026-08-27: -5.01 °F2026-08-28: -5.23 °F2026-08-29: -7.16 °F2026-08-30: -4.25 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.25
2026-08-29-7.16
2026-08-28-5.23
2026-08-27-5.01
2026-08-26-10.80
2026-08-25-7.07
2026-08-24-5.19
2026-08-23-8.77
2026-08-22-5.25
2026-08-21-6.09
2026-08-20-6.74
2026-08-19-3.82
2026-08-18-4.75
2026-08-17-5.64
2026-08-16-3.85
2026-08-15-3.22
2026-08-14-5.41
2026-08-13-5.24
2026-08-12-5.53
2026-08-11-5.67
2026-08-10-6.85
2026-08-09-7.48
2026-08-08-4.75
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-6.42
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-5.04

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 0-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 7 days-6 to -4 °F: 13 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.41 · P90 |e| 7.35 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.007
-6.00-4.0013
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08255.81 -5.81

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 +1.80 [1.19, 2.64] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -0.08 [-0.19, 0.03] no
Aurora (IFS init) 3 +0.87 [0.58, 1.46] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +2.77 [1.69, 3.85] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 +2.85 [2.41, 3.73] yes
NCEP GFS 25 +2.61 [1.98, 3.13] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 +0.40 [0.17, 0.63] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 +0.17 [-0.19, 0.53] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +0.32 [-0.61, 1.25] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +0.03 [-0.44, 0.97] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAN ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAN (San Diego Lindbergh), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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