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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KSAT · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.23 [2.73, 3.88]1.01-3.23 [-3.88, -2.73]3.45 [2.88, 4.08]4% [0%, 14%]17%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.23 [2.71, 4.10]1.01-3.23 [-4.10, -2.71]3.45 [2.88, 4.21]4% [0%, 18%]17%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.23 [2.69, 4.10]1.01-3.23 [-4.10, -2.69]3.45 [2.83, 4.19]4% [0%, 20%]17%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.23 [2.64, 4.10]1.01-3.23 [-4.10, -2.64]3.45 [2.82, 4.20]4% [0%, 20%]17%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.52 [1.95, 3.24]1.13-2.52 [-3.24, -1.95]2.86 [2.16, 3.57]12% [0%, 27%]42%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.52 [1.92, 3.50]1.13-2.52 [-3.50, -1.92]2.86 [2.20, 3.71]12% [0%, 31%]42%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.52 [1.92, 3.53]1.13-2.52 [-3.53, -1.92]2.86 [2.12, 3.71]12% [0%, 31%]42%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC2.52 [1.86, 3.48]1.13-2.52 [-3.48, -1.85]2.86 [2.14, 3.68]12% [0%, 30%]42%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.79 [0.87, 2.59]1.69+1.10 [-0.25, 2.37]2.28 [0.98, 3.05]38% [17%, 65%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.79 [0.81, 2.67]1.69+1.10 [-0.31, 2.50]2.28 [0.90, 3.12]38% [11%, 72%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.79 [0.79, 2.68]1.69+1.10 [-0.36, 2.52]2.28 [0.88, 3.14]38% [10%, 71%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.79 [0.80, 2.69]1.69+1.10 [-0.33, 2.56]2.28 [0.88, 3.11]38% [12%, 75%]67%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.12 [0.80, 3.31]1.79+1.85 [0.41, 3.21]2.81 [1.14, 3.81]38% [8%, 74%]54%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.12 [0.73, 3.42]1.79+1.85 [0.33, 3.32]2.81 [1.01, 3.86]38% [4%, 76%]54%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.12 [0.71, 3.43]1.79+1.85 [0.28, 3.37]2.81 [0.96, 3.89]38% [0%, 78%]54%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC2.12 [0.72, 3.47]1.79+1.85 [0.31, 3.43]2.81 [0.96, 3.88]38% [0%, 76%]54%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -4.1 °F2026-08-08: -3.38 °F2026-08-09: -5.51 °F2026-08-10: -5.21 °F2026-08-11: -3.37 °F2026-08-12: -2.55 °F2026-08-13: -4.46 °F2026-08-14: -4.33 °F2026-08-15: -4.29 °F2026-08-16: -2.11 °F2026-08-17: -2.39 °F2026-08-18: -2.76 °F2026-08-19: -1.97 °F2026-08-20: -3.57 °F2026-08-21: -2.48 °F2026-08-22: -3.43 °F2026-08-23: -1.96 °F2026-08-24: -2.2 °F2026-08-25: -2.44 °F2026-08-26: -1.65 °F2026-08-27: -3.51 °F2026-08-28: -5.22 °F2026-08-29: -3.84 °F2026-08-30: -0.88 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.88
2026-08-29-3.84
2026-08-28-5.22
2026-08-27-3.51
2026-08-26-1.65
2026-08-25-2.44
2026-08-24-2.20
2026-08-23-1.96
2026-08-22-3.43
2026-08-21-2.48
2026-08-20-3.57
2026-08-19-1.97
2026-08-18-2.76
2026-08-17-2.39
2026-08-16-2.11
2026-08-15-4.29
2026-08-14-4.33
2026-08-13-4.46
2026-08-12-2.55
2026-08-11-3.37
2026-08-10-5.21
2026-08-09-5.51
2026-08-08-3.38
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-4.10

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 7 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.37 · P90 |e| 4.98 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.007
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08243.23 -3.23

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 +0.09 [-0.54, 0.51] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -4.97 [-5.59, -4.34] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -2.97 [-3.56, -2.18] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -1.98 [-2.10, -1.87] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -0.90 [-1.21, -0.75] yes
NCEP GFS 24 +0.98 [0.18, 1.47] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -4.31 [-4.38, -4.24] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -2.30 [-2.85, -1.23] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -0.67 [-1.77, 0.43] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +0.59 [-1.44, 2.24] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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