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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Boston Logan · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KBOS · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.82 [2.83, 4.77]3.76+0.45 [-1.36, 1.52]4.52 [3.29, 5.42]5% [0%, 17%]24%52%+0.41+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.82 [2.63, 5.09]3.76+0.45 [-2.00, 1.52]4.52 [2.97, 5.59]5% [0%, 20%]24%52%+0.41+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.82 [2.50, 5.15]3.76+0.45 [-2.18, 1.61]4.52 [2.84, 5.67]5% [0%, 21%]24%52%+0.41+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.82 [2.59, 5.19]3.76+0.45 [-2.33, 1.61]4.52 [2.94, 5.72]5% [0%, 20%]24%52%+0.41+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 1 QC3.67 [3.00, 4.41]3.58+0.69 [-1.00, 1.81]4.35 [3.40, 5.08]14% [0%, 31%]29%52%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 1 QC3.67 [2.86, 4.66]3.58+0.69 [-1.58, 1.81]4.35 [3.20, 5.19]14% [0%, 31%]29%52%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d21 1 QC3.67 [2.78, 4.78]3.58+0.69 [-1.85, 1.97]4.35 [3.14, 5.30]14% [0%, 33%]29%52%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall21 1 QC3.67 [2.87, 4.73]3.58+0.69 [-1.96, 1.88]4.35 [3.18, 5.28]14% [0%, 32%]29%52%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.79 [1.66, 3.87]2.79-0.73 [-1.90, 0.33]3.54 [2.20, 4.49]33% [12%, 50%]38%62%+0.57+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.79 [1.62, 3.97]2.79-0.73 [-2.17, 0.39]3.54 [2.07, 4.58]33% [0%, 50%]38%62%+0.57+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.79 [1.55, 4.04]2.79-0.73 [-2.28, 0.55]3.54 [1.95, 4.65]33% [0%, 50%]38%62%+0.57+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.79 [1.58, 4.16]2.79-0.73 [-2.41, 0.50]3.54 [2.02, 4.72]33% [0%, 50%]38%62%+0.57+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.91 [2.05, 3.80]2.82-0.63 [-1.85, 0.52]3.51 [2.37, 4.43]19% [8%, 29%]33%62%+0.55+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.91 [2.00, 4.01]2.82-0.63 [-2.16, 0.60]3.51 [2.33, 4.53]19% [0%, 30%]33%62%+0.55+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC2.91 [1.95, 4.01]2.82-0.63 [-2.22, 0.70]3.51 [2.21, 4.57]19% [0%, 30%]33%62%+0.55+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC2.91 [1.95, 4.02]2.82-0.63 [-2.34, 0.73]3.51 [2.23, 4.61]19% [0%, 30%]33%62%+0.55+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC1.81 [1.12, 2.47]1.54+1.38 [0.45, 2.18]2.35 [1.39, 3.02]33% [18%, 50%]67%81%+0.18+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC1.81 [1.04, 2.56]1.54+1.38 [0.21, 2.28]2.35 [1.28, 3.08]33% [9%, 50%]67%81%+0.18+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC1.81 [0.92, 2.60]1.54+1.38 [-0.04, 2.33]2.35 [1.13, 3.11]33% [10%, 54%]67%81%+0.18+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall21 1 QC1.81 [0.92, 2.50]1.54+1.38 [0.11, 2.21]2.35 [1.08, 3.03]33% [9%, 53%]67%81%+0.18+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 1 QC2.01 [1.25, 2.58]1.72+1.59 [0.53, 2.37]2.50 [1.62, 3.08]38% [21%, 62%]52%71%+0.08+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 1 QC2.01 [1.07, 2.65]1.72+1.59 [0.26, 2.43]2.50 [1.39, 3.12]38% [18%, 68%]52%71%+0.08+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d21 1 QC2.01 [0.94, 2.66]1.72+1.59 [0.02, 2.48]2.50 [1.27, 3.15]38% [17%, 75%]52%71%+0.08+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall21 1 QC2.01 [1.00, 2.64]1.72+1.59 [0.11, 2.42]2.50 [1.27, 3.10]38% [16%, 71%]52%71%+0.08+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC1.86 [1.14, 2.46]1.77+0.79 [-0.16, 1.43]2.37 [1.43, 2.96]38% [20%, 62%]67%81%+0.15+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC1.86 [0.77, 2.64]1.77+0.79 [-0.27, 1.41]2.37 [0.88, 3.11]38% [18%, 73%]67%81%+0.15+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC1.86 [0.72, 2.67]1.77+0.79 [-0.33, 1.49]2.37 [0.82, 3.14]38% [17%, 67%]67%81%+0.15+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC1.86 [0.71, 2.66]1.77+0.79 [-0.51, 1.39]2.37 [0.82, 3.09]38% [19%, 75%]67%81%+0.15+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC1.95 [1.24, 2.53]1.87+0.98 [-0.07, 1.62]2.47 [1.63, 3.03]33% [17%, 60%]57%76%+0.11+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC1.95 [0.88, 2.72]1.87+0.98 [-0.23, 1.59]2.47 [1.16, 3.20]33% [15%, 73%]57%76%+0.11+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC1.95 [0.86, 2.80]1.87+0.98 [-0.27, 1.69]2.47 [1.10, 3.23]33% [14%, 75%]57%76%+0.11+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC1.95 [0.87, 2.79]1.87+0.98 [-0.27, 1.62]2.47 [1.13, 3.22]33% [14%, 75%]57%76%+0.11+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -6.7 °F2026-08-10: +2.49 °F2026-08-11: -3.72 °F2026-08-12: +2.05 °F2026-08-13: +2.4 °F2026-08-14: -1.45 °F2026-08-15: +5.34 °F2026-08-16: -1.99 °F2026-08-17: +7.84 °F2026-08-18: +1.03 °F2026-08-19: -6.55 °F2026-08-20: -1.69 °F2026-08-21: +7.21 °F2026-08-22: +2.67 °F2026-08-23: +8.94 °F2026-08-24: -4.88 °F2026-08-25: -5.41 °F2026-08-26: +2.33 °F2026-08-27: -3.07 °F2026-08-29: +0.43 °F2026-08-30: +2.07 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.07
2026-08-29+0.43
2026-08-28—
2026-08-27-3.07
2026-08-26+2.33
2026-08-25-5.41
2026-08-24-4.88
2026-08-23+8.94
2026-08-22+2.67
2026-08-21+7.21
2026-08-20-1.69
2026-08-19-6.55
2026-08-18+1.03
2026-08-17+7.84
2026-08-16-1.99
2026-08-15+5.34
2026-08-14-1.45
2026-08-13+2.40
2026-08-12+2.05
2026-08-11-3.72
2026-08-10+2.49
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-6.70

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 6 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 2 days8 to 9 °F: 1 day9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.67 · P90 |e| 7.21 °F-100+10 °Fn = 21 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.006
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.002
+8.00+9.001
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08213.82 +0.45

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 21 +0.06 [-0.60, 0.86] no
NCEP GFS 21 +0.27 [-0.92, 0.97] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 +0.81 [0.17, 2.22] yes
Persistence (baseline) 21 -2.65 [-4.49, 0.50] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KBOS ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KBOS (Boston Logan), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence