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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Diego Lindbergh · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KSAN · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC5.53 [4.70, 6.29]1.70-5.50 [-6.29, -4.65]5.91 [5.09, 6.61]5% [0%, 13%]5%5%-1.59+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC5.53 [4.56, 6.31]1.70-5.50 [-6.30, -4.50]5.91 [4.94, 6.62]5% [0%, 14%]5%5%-1.59+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC5.53 [4.56, 6.40]1.70-5.50 [-6.40, -4.50]5.91 [4.90, 6.69]5% [0%, 14%]5%5%-1.59+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC5.53 [4.36, 6.47]1.70-5.50 [-6.47, -4.32]5.91 [4.68, 6.72]5% [0%, 14%]5%5%-1.59+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC9.14 [7.67, 10.36]2.08-9.14 [-10.36, -7.67]9.48 [7.87, 10.66]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.28+0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC9.14 [7.53, 10.33]2.08-9.14 [-10.33, -7.53]9.48 [7.64, 10.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.28+0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC9.14 [7.47, 10.48]2.08-9.14 [-10.48, -7.47]9.48 [7.61, 10.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.28+0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC9.14 [7.25, 10.54]2.08-9.14 [-10.54, -7.25]9.48 [7.34, 10.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.28+0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC5.63 [4.68, 6.44]1.74-5.62 [-6.44, -4.68]6.03 [5.17, 6.73]5% [0%, 13%]5%9%-1.63+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC5.63 [4.57, 6.44]1.74-5.62 [-6.44, -4.57]6.03 [4.91, 6.73]5% [0%, 14%]5%9%-1.63+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC5.63 [4.52, 6.52]1.74-5.62 [-6.52, -4.52]6.03 [4.89, 6.81]5% [0%, 14%]5%9%-1.63+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC5.63 [4.26, 6.60]1.74-5.62 [-6.60, -4.26]6.03 [4.58, 6.83]5% [0%, 14%]5%9%-1.63+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC9.18 [7.70, 10.46]2.05-9.18 [-10.46, -7.70]9.51 [7.89, 10.74]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.30+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC9.18 [7.55, 10.46]2.05-9.18 [-10.46, -7.55]9.51 [7.74, 10.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.30+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC9.18 [7.46, 10.55]2.05-9.18 [-10.55, -7.46]9.51 [7.59, 10.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.30+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC9.18 [7.26, 10.59]2.05-9.18 [-10.59, -7.26]9.51 [7.37, 10.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.30+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.33 [1.08, 1.66]1.00-0.96 [-1.48, -0.52]1.62 [1.37, 1.89]50% [17%, 72%]77%95%-0.33+0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.33 [1.10, 1.71]1.00-0.96 [-1.62, -0.47]1.62 [1.34, 1.92]50% [0%, 71%]77%95%-0.33+0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.33 [1.08, 1.73]1.00-0.96 [-1.61, -0.44]1.62 [1.33, 1.96]50% [0%, 71%]77%95%-0.33+0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.33 [1.12, 1.74]1.00-0.96 [-1.61, -0.51]1.62 [1.35, 1.96]50% [0%, 71%]77%95%-0.33+0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC1.14 [0.90, 1.42]1.04-0.71 [-1.22, -0.30]1.40 [1.12, 1.65]59% [43%, 74%]86%95%-0.14-0.002026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC1.14 [0.85, 1.47]1.04-0.71 [-1.35, -0.30]1.40 [1.03, 1.69]59% [36%, 78%]86%95%-0.14-0.002026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC1.14 [0.83, 1.52]1.04-0.71 [-1.37, -0.28]1.40 [1.03, 1.73]59% [33%, 78%]86%95%-0.14-0.002026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC1.14 [0.89, 1.49]1.04-0.71 [-1.37, -0.33]1.40 [1.05, 1.69]59% [33%, 75%]86%95%-0.14-0.002026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.10 [0.89, 1.38]0.74-0.96 [-1.34, -0.70]1.30 [1.11, 1.52]41% [17%, 58%]86%100%-0.10+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.10 [0.88, 1.45]0.74-0.96 [-1.44, -0.70]1.30 [1.09, 1.56]41% [0%, 59%]86%100%-0.10+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.10 [0.88, 1.46]0.74-0.96 [-1.45, -0.69]1.30 [1.09, 1.55]41% [0%, 62%]86%100%-0.10+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.10 [0.89, 1.51]0.74-0.96 [-1.48, -0.69]1.30 [1.11, 1.58]41% [0%, 58%]86%100%-0.10+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC1.11 [0.81, 1.53]0.90-0.71 [-1.38, -0.14]1.34 [0.91, 1.77]45% [27%, 64%]86%100%-0.11+0.122026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC1.11 [0.78, 1.58]0.90-0.71 [-1.46, -0.16]1.34 [0.87, 1.83]45% [25%, 67%]86%100%-0.11+0.122026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC1.11 [0.76, 1.59]0.90-0.71 [-1.50, -0.10]1.34 [0.84, 1.85]45% [25%, 68%]86%100%-0.11+0.122026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC1.11 [0.78, 1.54]0.90-0.71 [-1.51, -0.15]1.34 [0.87, 1.80]45% [25%, 69%]86%100%-0.11+0.122026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -3.21 °F2026-08-10: -6.83 °F2026-08-11: -6.37 °F2026-08-12: -6.21 °F2026-08-13: -4.27 °F2026-08-14: -5.6 °F2026-08-15: -4.04 °F2026-08-16: -3.7 °F2026-08-17: -5.67 °F2026-08-18: -4.84 °F2026-08-19: -5.42 °F2026-08-20: -7.1 °F2026-08-21: -8.6 °F2026-08-22: -6.25 °F2026-08-23: -9.36 °F2026-08-24: -3.7 °F2026-08-25: -5.93 °F2026-08-26: -8.15 °F2026-08-27: +0.34 °F2026-08-28: -3.74 °F2026-08-29: -8.63 °F2026-08-30: -3.7 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.70
2026-08-29-8.63
2026-08-28-3.74
2026-08-27+0.34
2026-08-26-8.15
2026-08-25-5.93
2026-08-24-3.70
2026-08-23-9.36
2026-08-22-6.25
2026-08-21-8.60
2026-08-20-7.10
2026-08-19-5.42
2026-08-18-4.84
2026-08-17-5.67
2026-08-16-3.70
2026-08-15-4.04
2026-08-14-5.60
2026-08-13-4.27
2026-08-12-6.21
2026-08-11-6.37
2026-08-10-6.83
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-3.21

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 3 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.63 · P90 |e| 8.56 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.003
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.004
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08225.53 -5.50

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +2.21 [1.59, 2.70] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +2.49 [1.17, 3.87] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.28 [-2.36, 0.69] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 +3.39 [2.22, 4.19] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAN ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAN (San Diego Lindbergh), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence