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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KSAT · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.92 [2.35, 3.38]1.23-2.74 [-3.31, -1.57]3.29 [2.48, 3.85]5% [0%, 17%]23%68%-0.61+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.92 [2.20, 3.36]1.23-2.74 [-3.26, -1.27]3.29 [2.39, 3.90]5% [0%, 20%]23%68%-0.61+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.92 [2.20, 3.40]1.23-2.74 [-3.35, -1.04]3.29 [2.33, 3.93]5% [0%, 21%]23%68%-0.61+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.92 [2.08, 3.41]1.23-2.74 [-3.37, -0.81]3.29 [2.24, 3.93]5% [0%, 22%]23%68%-0.61+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.45 [1.95, 2.97]1.34-2.11 [-2.67, -0.85]2.89 [2.06, 3.57]14% [4%, 26%]50%73%-0.35+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.45 [1.95, 3.00]1.34-2.11 [-2.67, -0.53]2.89 [2.05, 3.65]14% [0%, 27%]50%73%-0.35+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.45 [1.94, 2.95]1.34-2.11 [-2.70, -0.35]2.89 [2.04, 3.56]14% [0%, 30%]50%73%-0.35+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC2.45 [1.88, 2.99]1.34-2.11 [-2.72, 0.06]2.89 [1.97, 3.60]14% [0%, 33%]50%73%-0.35+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.99 [2.13, 3.61]1.34-2.99 [-3.61, -2.13]3.56 [2.43, 4.31]14% [4%, 38%]32%64%-0.65+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.99 [1.88, 3.59]1.34-2.99 [-3.59, -1.88]3.56 [2.09, 4.34]14% [3%, 46%]32%64%-0.65+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.99 [1.80, 3.64]1.34-2.99 [-3.64, -1.80]3.56 [2.14, 4.38]14% [0%, 50%]32%64%-0.65+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.99 [1.18, 3.64]1.34-2.99 [-3.64, -1.18]3.56 [1.26, 4.39]14% [0%, 60%]32%64%-0.65+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.46 [1.60, 3.11]1.51-2.37 [-3.05, -1.39]3.28 [1.87, 4.27]27% [12%, 58%]45%73%-0.36+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.46 [1.34, 3.09]1.51-2.37 [-3.01, -1.06]3.28 [1.56, 4.35]27% [13%, 75%]45%73%-0.36+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.46 [1.25, 3.18]1.51-2.37 [-3.08, -0.98]3.28 [1.64, 4.32]27% [12%, 75%]45%73%-0.36+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC2.46 [0.62, 3.19]1.51-2.37 [-3.12, -0.32]3.28 [0.65, 4.31]27% [12%, 100%]45%73%-0.36+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.93 [0.90, 2.72]1.84+1.08 [-0.58, 2.51]2.55 [1.17, 3.31]32% [8%, 67%]68%77%-0.58-0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.93 [0.59, 2.86]1.84+1.08 [-0.64, 2.59]2.55 [0.71, 3.37]32% [0%, 80%]68%77%-0.58-0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.93 [0.58, 2.87]1.84+1.08 [-0.67, 2.63]2.55 [0.72, 3.38]32% [0%, 78%]68%77%-0.58-0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.93 [0.58, 2.79]1.84+1.08 [-0.72, 2.64]2.55 [0.70, 3.31]32% [0%, 85%]68%77%-0.58-0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.21 [0.74, 3.32]1.92+1.74 [-0.03, 3.22]2.95 [1.08, 3.91]36% [8%, 83%]55%73%-0.80-0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.21 [0.43, 3.44]1.92+1.74 [-0.10, 3.32]2.95 [0.47, 3.98]36% [6%, 100%]55%73%-0.80-0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.21 [0.43, 3.48]1.92+1.74 [-0.11, 3.37]2.95 [0.46, 4.00]36% [5%, 100%]55%73%-0.80-0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC2.21 [0.43, 3.45]1.92+1.74 [-0.14, 3.38]2.95 [0.45, 3.97]36% [4%, 100%]55%73%-0.80-0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.01 [1.26, 2.66]2.02+0.85 [-1.03, 2.30]2.49 [1.37, 3.15]23% [11%, 38%]68%77%-0.64-0.652026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.01 [1.16, 2.79]2.02+0.85 [-1.19, 2.45]2.49 [1.21, 3.25]23% [8%, 44%]68%77%-0.64-0.652026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.01 [1.14, 2.82]2.02+0.85 [-1.18, 2.48]2.49 [1.16, 3.26]23% [8%, 42%]68%77%-0.64-0.652026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.01 [1.12, 2.75]2.02+0.85 [-1.16, 2.47]2.49 [1.15, 3.20]23% [7%, 44%]68%77%-0.64-0.652026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.22 [0.91, 3.22]2.10+1.56 [-0.41, 3.09]2.89 [1.08, 3.77]32% [17%, 63%]59%73%-0.81-0.712026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.22 [0.66, 3.36]2.10+1.56 [-0.61, 3.22]2.89 [0.72, 3.87]32% [17%, 82%]59%73%-0.81-0.712026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.22 [0.57, 3.38]2.10+1.56 [-0.60, 3.26]2.89 [0.61, 3.92]32% [14%, 84%]59%73%-0.81-0.712026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.22 [0.57, 3.34]2.10+1.56 [-0.58, 3.25]2.89 [0.58, 3.85]32% [15%, 100%]59%73%-0.81-0.712026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: +1.92 °F2026-08-10: -2.48 °F2026-08-11: -2.17 °F2026-08-12: -2.97 °F2026-08-13: -6.78 °F2026-08-14: -3.72 °F2026-08-15: -3.31 °F2026-08-16: -1.24 °F2026-08-17: -3.5 °F2026-08-18: -2.07 °F2026-08-19: -2.54 °F2026-08-20: -2.87 °F2026-08-21: -2.82 °F2026-08-22: -2.3 °F2026-08-23: -2.91 °F2026-08-24: -2.31 °F2026-08-25: -1.84 °F2026-08-26: -1.67 °F2026-08-27: -3.83 °F2026-08-28: -6.95 °F2026-08-29: -3.94 °F2026-08-30: +0.14 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.14
2026-08-29-3.94
2026-08-28-6.95
2026-08-27-3.83
2026-08-26-1.67
2026-08-25-1.84
2026-08-24-2.31
2026-08-23-2.91
2026-08-22-2.30
2026-08-21-2.82
2026-08-20-2.87
2026-08-19-2.54
2026-08-18-2.07
2026-08-17-3.50
2026-08-16-1.24
2026-08-15-3.31
2026-08-14-3.72
2026-08-13-6.78
2026-08-12-2.97
2026-08-11-2.17
2026-08-10-2.48
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04+1.92

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 10 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.68 · P90 |e| 3.93 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.0010
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08222.92 -2.74

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.19 [-0.79, 0.35] no
NCEP GFS 22 +1.63 [0.89, 2.10] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -3.28 [-4.33, -1.91] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.10 [0.29, 1.57] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence