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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 3

KSAT · aifs_single · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.03 [2.60, 3.32]0.95-3.03 [-3.32, -2.60]3.26 [2.84, 3.54]4% [0%, 13%]19%52%-0.86+0.422026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.03 [2.58, 3.33]0.95-3.03 [-3.33, -2.58]3.26 [2.81, 3.53]4% [0%, 16%]19%52%-0.86+0.422026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.03 [2.56, 3.35]0.95-3.03 [-3.35, -2.56]3.26 [2.80, 3.55]4% [0%, 17%]19%52%-0.86+0.422026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.03 [2.51, 3.34]0.95-3.03 [-3.34, -2.51]3.26 [2.71, 3.52]4% [0%, 18%]19%52%-0.86+0.422026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC2.62 [2.18, 2.92]0.98-2.61 [-2.91, -2.15]2.88 [2.45, 3.17]7% [0%, 20%]30%67%-0.61+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC2.62 [2.15, 2.92]0.98-2.61 [-2.92, -2.13]2.88 [2.40, 3.17]7% [0%, 23%]30%67%-0.61+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC2.62 [2.17, 2.95]0.98-2.61 [-2.94, -2.13]2.88 [2.39, 3.18]7% [0%, 25%]30%67%-0.61+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC2.62 [2.11, 2.92]0.98-2.61 [-2.92, -2.05]2.88 [2.33, 3.16]7% [0%, 24%]30%67%-0.61+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.50 [3.12, 3.82]1.09-3.50 [-3.82, -3.12]3.76 [3.35, 4.11]0% [0%, 0%]15%37%-1.15+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.50 [3.06, 3.82]1.09-3.50 [-3.82, -3.06]3.76 [3.33, 4.10]0% [0%, 0%]15%37%-1.15+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.50 [3.05, 3.83]1.09-3.50 [-3.83, -3.05]3.76 [3.32, 4.12]0% [0%, 0%]15%37%-1.15+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.50 [3.03, 3.81]1.09-3.50 [-3.81, -3.03]3.76 [3.32, 4.11]0% [0%, 0%]15%37%-1.15+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC3.08 [2.68, 3.41]1.12-3.08 [-3.41, -2.68]3.39 [2.95, 3.76]4% [0%, 13%]26%52%-0.89+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC3.08 [2.62, 3.42]1.12-3.08 [-3.42, -2.62]3.39 [2.92, 3.75]4% [0%, 16%]26%52%-0.89+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC3.08 [2.62, 3.43]1.12-3.08 [-3.43, -2.62]3.39 [2.93, 3.77]4% [0%, 17%]26%52%-0.89+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC3.08 [2.59, 3.40]1.12-3.08 [-3.40, -2.59]3.39 [2.92, 3.76]4% [0%, 18%]26%52%-0.89+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.61 [1.32, 1.92]1.40-0.81 [-1.71, 0.25]1.93 [1.55, 2.30]26% [19%, 33%]74%89%-0.36-0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.61 [1.30, 1.95]1.40-0.81 [-1.76, 0.38]1.93 [1.52, 2.33]26% [15%, 35%]74%89%-0.36-0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.61 [1.30, 1.97]1.40-0.81 [-1.78, 0.45]1.93 [1.50, 2.38]26% [16%, 35%]74%89%-0.36-0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.61 [1.24, 1.99]1.40-0.81 [-1.82, 0.43]1.93 [1.46, 2.38]26% [14%, 35%]74%89%-0.36-0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC1.52 [1.24, 1.84]1.41-0.58 [-1.48, 0.49]1.85 [1.49, 2.20]30% [22%, 37%]74%89%-0.28-0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC1.52 [1.22, 1.85]1.41-0.58 [-1.54, 0.63]1.85 [1.44, 2.22]30% [20%, 37%]74%89%-0.28-0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC1.52 [1.21, 1.89]1.41-0.58 [-1.55, 0.69]1.85 [1.43, 2.28]30% [21%, 38%]74%89%-0.28-0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC1.52 [1.20, 1.90]1.41-0.58 [-1.59, 0.68]1.85 [1.42, 2.26]30% [22%, 38%]74%89%-0.28-0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.70 [1.40, 2.01]1.37-1.00 [-1.84, -0.03]1.95 [1.61, 2.24]26% [10%, 46%]70%81%-0.44-0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.70 [1.37, 2.02]1.37-1.00 [-1.89, 0.15]1.95 [1.58, 2.26]26% [10%, 47%]70%81%-0.44-0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.70 [1.35, 2.03]1.37-1.00 [-1.89, 0.24]1.95 [1.54, 2.26]26% [10%, 50%]70%81%-0.44-0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.70 [1.29, 2.03]1.37-1.00 [-1.91, 0.19]1.95 [1.49, 2.27]26% [9%, 50%]70%81%-0.44-0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC1.60 [1.34, 1.87]1.38-0.77 [-1.62, 0.21]1.85 [1.57, 2.12]26% [13%, 40%]74%89%-0.35-0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC1.60 [1.30, 1.89]1.38-0.77 [-1.67, 0.40]1.85 [1.51, 2.14]26% [11%, 42%]74%89%-0.35-0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC1.60 [1.27, 1.90]1.38-0.77 [-1.68, 0.48]1.85 [1.50, 2.15]26% [11%, 43%]74%89%-0.35-0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC1.60 [1.25, 1.90]1.38-0.77 [-1.70, 0.42]1.85 [1.42, 2.16]26% [11%, 42%]74%89%-0.35-0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KSAT, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -2.76 °F2026-08-05: -2.1 °F2026-08-06: -2.64 °F2026-08-07: -2.96 °F2026-08-08: -1.87 °F2026-08-09: -3.99 °F2026-08-10: -4.09 °F2026-08-11: -1.56 °F2026-08-12: -2.31 °F2026-08-13: -4.1 °F2026-08-14: -5.49 °F2026-08-15: -3.14 °F2026-08-16: -1.71 °F2026-08-17: -3.35 °F2026-08-18: -2.78 °F2026-08-19: -3.97 °F2026-08-20: -3.3 °F2026-08-21: -2.63 °F2026-08-22: -4.48 °F2026-08-23: -3.62 °F2026-08-24: -3.23 °F2026-08-25: -2.06 °F2026-08-26: -1.24 °F2026-08-27: -4.94 °F2026-08-28: -4.59 °F2026-08-29: -2.75 °F2026-08-30: -0.28 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.28
2026-08-29-2.75
2026-08-28-4.59
2026-08-27-4.94
2026-08-26-1.24
2026-08-25-2.06
2026-08-24-3.23
2026-08-23-3.62
2026-08-22-4.48
2026-08-21-2.63
2026-08-20-3.30
2026-08-19-3.97
2026-08-18-2.78
2026-08-17-3.35
2026-08-16-1.71
2026-08-15-3.14
2026-08-14-5.49
2026-08-13-4.10
2026-08-12-2.31
2026-08-11-1.56
2026-08-10-4.09
2026-08-09-3.99
2026-08-08-1.87
2026-08-07-2.96
2026-08-06-2.64
2026-08-05-2.10
2026-08-04-2.76

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KSAT, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 7 days-3 to -2 °F: 9 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.96 · P90 |e| 4.53 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.007
-3.00-2.009
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08273.03 -3.03

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 27 +1.42 [0.48, 2.12] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.60 [-3.62, -1.16] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.19 [-0.35, 0.79] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 +1.41 [0.58, 1.96] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT aifs_single lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence