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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KIAH · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.79 [3.22, 4.35]1.32-3.79 [-4.35, -3.22]4.20 [3.48, 4.92]11% [0%, 23%]16%26%-0.31+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.79 [2.81, 4.47]1.32-3.79 [-4.47, -2.81]4.20 [3.22, 5.11]11% [0%, 24%]16%26%-0.31+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.79 [2.94, 4.49]1.32-3.79 [-4.49, -2.94]4.20 [3.22, 5.15]11% [0%, 25%]16%26%-0.31+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.79 [2.89, 4.48]1.32-3.79 [-4.48, -2.89]4.20 [3.26, 5.06]11% [0%, 25%]16%26%-0.31+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC4.24 [3.57, 4.73]1.31-4.24 [-4.73, -3.57]4.60 [3.84, 5.23]5% [0%, 17%]11%21%-0.46+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC4.24 [3.07, 4.80]1.31-4.24 [-4.80, -3.07]4.60 [3.47, 5.36]5% [0%, 18%]11%21%-0.46+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC4.24 [3.11, 4.83]1.31-4.24 [-4.83, -3.11]4.60 [3.50, 5.44]5% [0%, 17%]11%21%-0.46+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC4.24 [3.32, 4.79]1.31-4.24 [-4.79, -3.32]4.60 [3.67, 5.35]5% [0%, 17%]11%21%-0.46+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.72 [2.91, 4.36]1.17-3.68 [-4.36, -2.79]4.04 [3.25, 4.75]5% [0%, 18%]11%26%-0.28+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.72 [2.43, 4.50]1.17-3.68 [-4.50, -2.28]4.04 [2.74, 4.89]5% [0%, 20%]11%26%-0.28+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.72 [2.50, 4.54]1.17-3.68 [-4.54, -2.31]4.04 [2.74, 4.92]5% [0%, 20%]11%26%-0.28+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.72 [2.50, 4.49]1.17-3.68 [-4.49, -2.31]4.04 [2.80, 4.91]5% [0%, 20%]11%26%-0.28+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC4.43 [3.86, 4.91]1.13-4.43 [-4.91, -3.86]4.70 [4.17, 5.18]5% [0%, 18%]5%16%-0.53+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC4.43 [3.41, 4.95]1.13-4.43 [-4.95, -3.41]4.70 [3.80, 5.27]5% [0%, 20%]5%16%-0.53+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC4.43 [3.50, 4.99]1.13-4.43 [-4.99, -3.50]4.70 [3.68, 5.28]5% [0%, 20%]5%16%-0.53+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC4.43 [3.51, 4.95]1.13-4.43 [-4.95, -3.51]4.70 [3.88, 5.24]5% [0%, 20%]5%16%-0.53+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC1.88 [1.07, 2.75]1.64+1.52 [0.71, 2.53]2.74 [1.44, 3.78]42% [14%, 63%]68%84%+0.33+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC1.88 [1.05, 2.88]1.64+1.52 [0.64, 2.68]2.74 [1.42, 3.91]42% [0%, 62%]68%84%+0.33+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC1.88 [0.90, 2.80]1.64+1.52 [0.58, 2.57]2.74 [1.33, 3.85]42% [0%, 67%]68%84%+0.33+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC1.88 [0.89, 2.69]1.64+1.52 [0.52, 2.50]2.74 [1.27, 3.78]42% [0%, 67%]68%84%+0.33+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC1.70 [1.02, 2.48]1.63+1.01 [0.17, 2.03]2.46 [1.26, 3.51]42% [0%, 71%]68%89%+0.39+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC1.70 [1.03, 2.58]1.63+1.01 [0.11, 2.23]2.46 [1.07, 3.64]42% [0%, 73%]68%89%+0.39+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC1.70 [0.90, 2.53]1.63+1.01 [0.07, 2.18]2.46 [1.07, 3.54]42% [0%, 76%]68%89%+0.39+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC1.70 [0.83, 2.47]1.63+1.01 [-0.00, 2.09]2.46 [1.03, 3.49]42% [0%, 79%]68%89%+0.39+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC1.69 [0.88, 2.64]1.54+1.30 [0.43, 2.29]2.22 [1.23, 2.96]47% [0%, 80%]68%79%+0.40+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC1.69 [0.87, 2.67]1.54+1.30 [0.40, 2.35]2.22 [1.14, 2.98]47% [0%, 81%]68%79%+0.40+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC1.69 [0.81, 2.71]1.54+1.30 [0.31, 2.38]2.22 [1.03, 3.03]47% [0%, 86%]68%79%+0.40+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC1.69 [0.71, 2.72]1.54+1.30 [0.19, 2.42]2.22 [0.86, 3.05]47% [0%, 88%]68%79%+0.40+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC1.49 [0.86, 2.24]1.55+0.72 [-0.16, 1.71]1.93 [1.15, 2.54]47% [14%, 70%]68%79%+0.46+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC1.49 [0.79, 2.30]1.55+0.72 [-0.21, 1.86]1.93 [1.10, 2.56]47% [0%, 71%]68%79%+0.46+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC1.49 [0.75, 2.37]1.55+0.72 [-0.31, 1.84]1.93 [0.96, 2.61]47% [0%, 73%]68%79%+0.46+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC1.49 [0.67, 2.30]1.55+0.72 [-0.40, 1.86]1.93 [0.84, 2.62]47% [0%, 73%]68%79%+0.46+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -2.15 °F2026-08-13: -4.54 °F2026-08-14: -0.16 °F2026-08-15: -4.7 °F2026-08-16: -5.48 °F2026-08-17: -4.23 °F2026-08-18: -4.21 °F2026-08-19: -2.63 °F2026-08-20: -3.57 °F2026-08-21: -3.31 °F2026-08-22: -4.08 °F2026-08-23: -1.87 °F2026-08-24: -4.23 °F2026-08-25: -4.11 °F2026-08-26: -5.17 °F2026-08-27: -4.3 °F2026-08-28: -0.3 °F2026-08-29: -8.31 °F2026-08-30: -4.7 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.70
2026-08-29-8.31
2026-08-28-0.30
2026-08-27-4.30
2026-08-26-5.17
2026-08-25-4.11
2026-08-24-4.23
2026-08-23-1.87
2026-08-22-4.08
2026-08-21-3.31
2026-08-20-3.57
2026-08-19-2.63
2026-08-18-4.21
2026-08-17-4.23
2026-08-16-5.48
2026-08-15-4.70
2026-08-14-0.16
2026-08-13-4.54
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-2.15

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 9 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.21 · P90 |e| 5.23 °F-100+10 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.009
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08193.79 -3.79

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 +0.52 [-1.02, 2.42] no
NCEP GFS 19 +1.26 [-0.06, 2.74] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -2.96 [-4.96, -0.10] yes
Persistence (baseline) 19 +0.90 [0.22, 2.01] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence