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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 6

KIAH · aifs_single · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.25 [2.41, 4.02]1.23-3.25 [-4.02, -2.41]3.55 [2.67, 4.24]4% [0%, 12%]25%46%-0.01+0.612026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.25 [2.23, 4.07]1.23-3.25 [-4.07, -2.23]3.55 [2.45, 4.29]4% [0%, 12%]25%46%-0.01+0.612026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.25 [2.24, 4.25]1.23-3.25 [-4.25, -2.24]3.55 [2.50, 4.45]4% [0%, 13%]25%46%-0.01+0.612026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.25 [2.07, 4.16]1.23-3.25 [-4.16, -2.07]3.55 [2.21, 4.36]4% [0%, 13%]25%46%-0.01+0.612026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC3.57 [2.75, 4.32]1.18-3.57 [-4.32, -2.75]3.84 [2.99, 4.51]4% [0%, 12%]12%38%-0.11+0.632026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC3.57 [2.59, 4.36]1.18-3.57 [-4.36, -2.59]3.84 [2.80, 4.54]4% [0%, 12%]12%38%-0.11+0.632026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC3.57 [2.60, 4.54]1.18-3.57 [-4.54, -2.60]3.84 [2.84, 4.71]4% [0%, 13%]12%38%-0.11+0.632026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC3.57 [2.43, 4.47]1.18-3.57 [-4.47, -2.43]3.84 [2.58, 4.64]4% [0%, 13%]12%38%-0.11+0.632026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.73 [2.87, 4.60]1.34-3.69 [-4.59, -2.76]4.07 [3.14, 4.82]8% [0%, 20%]17%25%-0.16+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.73 [2.76, 4.68]1.34-3.69 [-4.68, -2.65]4.07 [3.02, 4.86]8% [0%, 21%]17%25%-0.16+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.73 [2.61, 4.89]1.34-3.69 [-4.89, -2.55]4.07 [2.93, 5.03]8% [0%, 21%]17%25%-0.16+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.73 [2.65, 4.82]1.34-3.69 [-4.82, -2.57]4.07 [2.91, 5.02]8% [0%, 21%]17%25%-0.16+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC4.00 [3.11, 4.89]1.31-4.00 [-4.89, -3.11]4.34 [3.45, 5.10]8% [0%, 20%]12%21%-0.25+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC4.00 [3.01, 5.00]1.31-4.00 [-5.00, -3.01]4.34 [3.31, 5.16]8% [0%, 21%]12%21%-0.25+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC4.00 [2.88, 5.17]1.31-4.00 [-5.17, -2.88]4.34 [3.23, 5.32]8% [0%, 21%]12%21%-0.25+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC4.00 [2.91, 5.16]1.31-4.00 [-5.16, -2.91]4.34 [3.26, 5.31]8% [0%, 21%]12%21%-0.25+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.95 [1.40, 2.36]1.96+0.14 [-1.22, 1.36]2.38 [1.82, 2.86]29% [10%, 56%]54%79%+0.28+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.95 [1.29, 2.44]1.96+0.14 [-1.27, 1.56]2.38 [1.67, 2.93]29% [9%, 63%]54%79%+0.28+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.95 [1.24, 2.46]1.96+0.14 [-1.54, 1.54]2.38 [1.61, 2.91]29% [7%, 60%]54%79%+0.28+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.95 [1.18, 2.43]1.96+0.14 [-1.54, 1.57]2.38 [1.53, 2.90]29% [5%, 64%]54%79%+0.28+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC1.97 [1.33, 2.44]1.96-0.04 [-1.44, 1.18]2.38 [1.79, 2.86]25% [8%, 50%]54%79%+0.27+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC1.97 [1.24, 2.51]1.96-0.04 [-1.49, 1.38]2.38 [1.65, 2.94]25% [7%, 60%]54%79%+0.27+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC1.97 [1.19, 2.54]1.96-0.04 [-1.75, 1.38]2.38 [1.61, 2.95]25% [7%, 60%]54%79%+0.27+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC1.97 [1.17, 2.51]1.96-0.04 [-1.76, 1.41]2.38 [1.49, 2.91]25% [5%, 63%]54%79%+0.27+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.88 [1.36, 2.26]1.87-0.11 [-1.41, 1.15]2.21 [1.79, 2.50]29% [12%, 55%]50%79%+0.31+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.88 [1.26, 2.32]1.87-0.11 [-1.50, 1.34]2.21 [1.65, 2.54]29% [13%, 60%]50%79%+0.31+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.88 [1.25, 2.31]1.87-0.11 [-1.77, 1.32]2.21 [1.60, 2.54]29% [10%, 60%]50%79%+0.31+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.88 [1.17, 2.32]1.87-0.11 [-1.76, 1.32]2.21 [1.53, 2.53]29% [11%, 63%]50%79%+0.31+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.90 [1.36, 2.35]1.87-0.30 [-1.61, 0.97]2.23 [1.75, 2.59]29% [12%, 55%]50%83%+0.30+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.90 [1.25, 2.37]1.87-0.30 [-1.70, 1.17]2.23 [1.63, 2.62]29% [13%, 60%]50%83%+0.30+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.90 [1.21, 2.40]1.87-0.30 [-1.98, 1.16]2.23 [1.57, 2.63]29% [10%, 60%]50%83%+0.30+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.90 [1.16, 2.43]1.87-0.30 [-1.97, 1.15]2.23 [1.53, 2.64]29% [11%, 63%]50%83%+0.30+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -3.43 °F2026-08-08: -4.75 °F2026-08-09: -2.57 °F2026-08-10: -2.7 °F2026-08-11: -2.12 °F2026-08-12: -3.65 °F2026-08-13: -2.56 °F2026-08-14: -0.36 °F2026-08-15: -3.92 °F2026-08-16: -3.74 °F2026-08-17: -5.13 °F2026-08-18: -4.28 °F2026-08-19: -1.89 °F2026-08-20: -4.5 °F2026-08-21: -4.76 °F2026-08-22: -6.36 °F2026-08-23: -4.15 °F2026-08-24: -5.05 °F2026-08-25: -3.01 °F2026-08-26: -2.62 °F2026-08-27: -1.95 °F2026-08-28: -1.41 °F2026-08-29: -1.31 °F2026-08-30: -1.69 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.69
2026-08-29-1.31
2026-08-28-1.41
2026-08-27-1.95
2026-08-26-2.62
2026-08-25-3.01
2026-08-24-5.05
2026-08-23-4.15
2026-08-22-6.36
2026-08-21-4.76
2026-08-20-4.50
2026-08-19-1.89
2026-08-18-4.28
2026-08-17-5.13
2026-08-16-3.74
2026-08-15-3.92
2026-08-14-0.36
2026-08-13-2.56
2026-08-12-3.65
2026-08-11-2.12
2026-08-10-2.70
2026-08-09-2.57
2026-08-08-4.75
2026-08-07-3.43

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.22 · P90 |e| 4.97 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08243.25 -3.25

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 24 +0.61 [-1.59, 2.24] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -3.04 [-4.21, -1.65] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 -0.52 [-2.42, 1.02] no
Persistence (baseline) 24 +0.04 [-1.45, 1.38] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH aifs_single lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model aifs_single, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence