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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Diego Lindbergh · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KSAN · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC6.28 [3.63, 8.34]3.20-6.28 [-8.34, -3.63]7.27 [4.58, 8.86]12% [0%, 27%]18%29%-0.59+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC6.28 [3.28, 8.38]3.20-6.28 [-8.38, -3.28]7.27 [4.08, 8.91]12% [0%, 30%]18%29%-0.59+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC6.28 [3.28, 8.37]3.20-6.28 [-8.37, -3.28]7.27 [4.26, 9.00]12% [0%, 30%]18%29%-0.59+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC6.28 [3.18, 8.94]3.20-6.28 [-8.94, -3.18]7.27 [4.02, 9.15]12% [0%, 33%]18%29%-0.59+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC10.19 [7.47, 12.09]2.64-10.19 [-12.09, -7.47]10.72 [7.88, 12.37]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.59+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC10.19 [7.18, 12.18]2.64-10.19 [-12.18, -7.18]10.72 [7.63, 12.44]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.59+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC10.19 [7.13, 12.34]2.64-10.19 [-12.34, -7.13]10.72 [7.52, 12.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.59+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC10.19 [6.98, 12.46]2.64-10.19 [-12.46, -6.98]10.72 [7.28, 12.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.59+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC6.06 [3.65, 7.86]2.87-5.92 [-7.79, -3.58]6.91 [4.15, 8.51]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%-0.54+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC6.06 [3.59, 7.93]2.87-5.92 [-7.85, -3.45]6.91 [4.03, 8.54]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%-0.54+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC6.06 [3.50, 8.03]2.87-5.92 [-7.82, -3.40]6.91 [3.96, 8.65]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%-0.54+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC6.06 [3.51, 8.24]2.87-5.92 [-8.22, -3.42]6.91 [3.84, 8.79]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%-0.54+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC9.84 [7.41, 11.59]2.63-9.84 [-11.59, -7.41]10.36 [7.67, 11.99]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.50+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC9.84 [7.26, 11.63]2.63-9.84 [-11.63, -7.26]10.36 [7.57, 12.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.50+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC9.84 [7.18, 11.71]2.63-9.84 [-11.71, -7.18]10.36 [7.48, 12.14]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.50+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC9.84 [6.92, 11.77]2.63-9.84 [-11.77, -6.92]10.36 [7.08, 12.25]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.50+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC1.50 [0.84, 1.96]1.13-1.26 [-1.82, -0.30]1.80 [0.99, 2.18]35% [17%, 56%]65%94%+0.20+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC1.50 [0.80, 1.95]1.13-1.26 [-1.80, -0.17]1.80 [0.92, 2.18]35% [0%, 56%]65%94%+0.20+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC1.50 [0.75, 1.97]1.13-1.26 [-1.84, -0.13]1.80 [0.86, 2.21]35% [0%, 60%]65%94%+0.20+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC1.50 [0.75, 2.06]1.13-1.26 [-1.91, -0.09]1.80 [0.86, 2.26]35% [6%, 60%]65%94%+0.20+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC1.89 [1.06, 2.77]1.34-1.45 [-2.72, 0.21]2.20 [1.30, 3.00]29% [8%, 64%]59%88%-0.00+0.302026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC1.89 [0.95, 2.99]1.34-1.45 [-2.99, 0.28]2.20 [1.15, 3.16]29% [0%, 75%]59%88%-0.00+0.302026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC1.89 [0.93, 2.95]1.34-1.45 [-2.95, 0.45]2.20 [1.07, 3.17]29% [0%, 80%]59%88%-0.00+0.302026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC1.89 [0.93, 3.00]1.34-1.45 [-3.00, 0.51]2.20 [1.11, 3.20]29% [0%, 79%]59%88%-0.00+0.302026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC1.09 [0.71, 1.58]0.88-0.66 [-1.28, 0.01]1.29 [0.92, 1.65]47% [9%, 68%]94%100%+0.42+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC1.09 [0.70, 1.67]0.88-0.66 [-1.43, 0.02]1.29 [0.92, 1.75]47% [0%, 68%]94%100%+0.42+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC1.09 [0.68, 1.65]0.88-0.66 [-1.43, 0.07]1.29 [0.91, 1.74]47% [0%, 71%]94%100%+0.42+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC1.09 [0.68, 1.65]0.88-0.66 [-1.43, 0.16]1.29 [0.89, 1.75]47% [0%, 70%]94%100%+0.42+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC1.25 [0.75, 2.17]1.20-0.66 [-2.03, 0.58]1.71 [0.87, 2.68]53% [28%, 75%]82%94%+0.34+0.382026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC1.25 [0.71, 2.49]1.20-0.66 [-2.25, 0.63]1.71 [0.81, 2.95]53% [20%, 80%]82%94%+0.34+0.382026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC1.25 [0.71, 2.41]1.20-0.66 [-2.25, 0.71]1.71 [0.78, 2.89]53% [22%, 81%]82%94%+0.34+0.382026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC1.25 [0.71, 2.46]1.20-0.66 [-2.40, 0.74]1.71 [0.79, 2.89]53% [17%, 82%]82%94%+0.34+0.382026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-09: -7.83 °F2026-08-15: -2.16 °F2026-08-16: -2.98 °F2026-08-17: -7.66 °F2026-08-18: -0.93 °F2026-08-19: -7.23 °F2026-08-20: -10.36 °F2026-08-21: -7.95 °F2026-08-22: -9.77 °F2026-08-23: -13.13 °F2026-08-24: -7.5 °F2026-08-25: -7.78 °F2026-08-26: -10.77 °F2026-08-27: -1.69 °F2026-08-28: -4.33 °F2026-08-29: -4.49 °F2026-08-30: -0.18 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.18
2026-08-29-4.49
2026-08-28-4.33
2026-08-27-1.69
2026-08-26-10.77
2026-08-25-7.78
2026-08-24-7.50
2026-08-23-13.13
2026-08-22-9.77
2026-08-21-7.95
2026-08-20-10.36
2026-08-19-7.23
2026-08-18-0.93
2026-08-17-7.66
2026-08-16-2.98
2026-08-15-2.16
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-7.83

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 8-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 2 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 6 days-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 7.5 · P90 |e| 10.52 °F-200+20 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.002
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.006
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08176.28 -6.28

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 +2.62 [0.43, 3.92] yes
NCEP GFS 17 +2.13 [-1.32, 4.20] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -0.11 [-1.88, 1.47] no
Persistence (baseline) 17 +2.34 [-0.34, 4.97] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAN ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAN (San Diego Lindbergh), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence