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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KOKC · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 2 QC3.64 [2.92, 4.14]2.69-2.52 [-3.88, -0.99]4.16 [3.33, 4.60]15% [0%, 26%]30%40%+0.19+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 2 QC3.64 [2.71, 4.28]2.69-2.52 [-3.97, -0.54]4.16 [2.94, 4.71]15% [0%, 27%]30%40%+0.19+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 2 QC3.64 [2.75, 4.30]2.69-2.52 [-4.09, -0.31]4.16 [3.05, 4.74]15% [0%, 26%]30%40%+0.19+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 2 QC3.64 [2.62, 4.28]2.69-2.52 [-4.10, -0.56]4.16 [2.81, 4.68]15% [0%, 26%]30%40%+0.19+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 2 QC3.65 [2.92, 4.21]2.94-2.21 [-3.61, -0.60]4.21 [3.30, 4.71]15% [6%, 23%]35%40%+0.19+0.342026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 2 QC3.65 [2.83, 4.29]2.94-2.21 [-3.80, -0.01]4.21 [2.99, 4.76]15% [0%, 24%]35%40%+0.19+0.342026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 2 QC3.65 [2.78, 4.33]2.94-2.21 [-3.89, 0.13]4.21 [2.99, 4.78]15% [0%, 25%]35%40%+0.19+0.342026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 2 QC3.65 [2.74, 4.29]2.94-2.21 [-3.88, -0.11]4.21 [2.99, 4.75]15% [0%, 23%]35%40%+0.19+0.342026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC3.31 [2.67, 3.82]2.14-2.47 [-3.72, -1.27]3.80 [3.13, 4.26]10% [0%, 17%]33%48%+0.24+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC3.31 [2.47, 3.94]2.14-2.47 [-3.86, -1.06]3.80 [2.90, 4.38]10% [0%, 15%]33%48%+0.24+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC3.31 [2.56, 3.98]2.14-2.47 [-3.91, -0.96]3.80 [2.95, 4.41]10% [0%, 15%]33%48%+0.24+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 2 QC3.31 [2.40, 3.94]2.14-2.47 [-3.88, -0.96]3.80 [2.83, 4.35]10% [0%, 15%]33%48%+0.24+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 2 QC3.14 [2.24, 3.71]2.24-2.09 [-3.40, -0.79]3.62 [2.68, 4.15]14% [5%, 33%]29%52%+0.28+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 2 QC3.14 [1.98, 3.87]2.24-2.09 [-3.71, -0.53]3.62 [2.39, 4.28]14% [3%, 43%]29%52%+0.28+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 2 QC3.14 [2.02, 3.93]2.24-2.09 [-3.73, -0.53]3.62 [2.48, 4.33]14% [0%, 38%]29%52%+0.28+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 2 QC3.14 [1.84, 3.88]2.24-2.09 [-3.76, -0.53]3.62 [2.33, 4.26]14% [0%, 40%]29%52%+0.28+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 2 QC5.98 [5.35, 7.27]2.20+5.98 [5.35, 7.27]6.49 [5.97, 7.58]10% [0%, 22%]10%10%-0.36+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 2 QC5.98 [5.35, 7.92]2.20+5.98 [5.35, 7.92]6.49 [5.99, 8.17]10% [0%, 22%]10%10%-0.36+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 2 QC5.98 [5.33, 8.08]2.20+5.98 [5.33, 8.08]6.49 [5.95, 8.13]10% [0%, 23%]10%10%-0.36+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 2 QC5.98 [5.32, 8.38]2.20+5.98 [5.32, 8.38]6.49 [5.95, 8.43]10% [0%, 25%]10%10%-0.36+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 2 QC6.68 [5.87, 8.18]2.51+6.68 [5.87, 8.18]7.30 [6.66, 8.60]5% [0%, 12%]10%10%-0.52+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 2 QC6.68 [5.89, 9.03]2.51+6.68 [5.89, 9.03]7.30 [6.69, 9.27]5% [0%, 12%]10%10%-0.52+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 2 QC6.68 [5.83, 9.23]2.51+6.68 [5.83, 9.23]7.30 [6.65, 9.28]5% [0%, 13%]10%10%-0.52+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 2 QC6.68 [5.85, 9.58]2.51+6.68 [5.85, 9.58]7.30 [6.68, 9.68]5% [0%, 13%]10%10%-0.52+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC5.79 [5.13, 6.66]1.88+5.79 [5.13, 6.66]6.22 [5.74, 6.92]5% [0%, 13%]10%14%-0.37+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC5.79 [5.15, 7.31]1.88+5.79 [5.15, 7.31]6.22 [5.73, 7.33]5% [0%, 13%]10%14%-0.37+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC5.79 [5.07, 7.31]1.88+5.79 [5.07, 7.31]6.22 [5.69, 7.34]5% [0%, 14%]10%14%-0.37+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 2 QC5.79 [5.18, 7.43]1.88+5.79 [5.18, 7.43]6.22 [5.76, 7.48]5% [0%, 13%]10%14%-0.37+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 2 QC6.55 [5.62, 7.71]2.20+6.55 [5.62, 7.71]7.08 [6.43, 7.94]5% [0%, 13%]10%10%-0.55+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 2 QC6.55 [5.63, 8.29]2.20+6.55 [5.63, 8.29]7.08 [6.40, 8.36]5% [0%, 13%]10%10%-0.55+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 2 QC6.55 [5.53, 8.42]2.20+6.55 [5.53, 8.42]7.08 [6.34, 8.55]5% [0%, 14%]10%10%-0.55+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 2 QC6.55 [5.64, 8.48]2.20+6.55 [5.64, 8.48]7.08 [6.43, 8.57]5% [0%, 13%]10%10%-0.55+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: +1.66 °F2026-08-11: -2.1 °F2026-08-12: -2.29 °F2026-08-13: -4.41 °F2026-08-14: -4.84 °F2026-08-16: -1.4 °F2026-08-17: -5.16 °F2026-08-18: -4.88 °F2026-08-19: +0.89 °F2026-08-20: -4.79 °F2026-08-21: -0.89 °F2026-08-22: +7.31 °F2026-08-23: +1.4 °F2026-08-24: -5.19 °F2026-08-25: -4.88 °F2026-08-26: -3.9 °F2026-08-27: -0.31 °F2026-08-28: -5.99 °F2026-08-29: -5.93 °F2026-08-30: -4.64 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.64
2026-08-29-5.93
2026-08-28-5.99
2026-08-27-0.31
2026-08-26-3.90
2026-08-25-4.88
2026-08-24-5.19
2026-08-23+1.40
2026-08-22+7.31
2026-08-21-0.89
2026-08-20-4.79
2026-08-19+0.89
2026-08-18-4.88
2026-08-17-5.16
2026-08-16-1.40
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-4.84
2026-08-13-4.41
2026-08-12-2.29
2026-08-11-2.10
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05+1.66

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.52 · P90 |e| 5.93 °F-100+10 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08203.64 -2.52

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 +0.11 [-0.86, 0.50] no
NCEP GFS 20 +0.39 [-1.45, 1.97] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -5.27 [-6.31, -4.53] yes
Persistence (baseline) 20 -0.86 [-4.03, 0.08] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence