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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Boston Logan · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KBOS · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.15 [1.63, 2.57]1.85-1.42 [-1.96, -0.76]2.63 [2.04, 3.05]26% [9%, 46%]57%74%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.15 [1.56, 2.62]1.85-1.42 [-2.05, -0.49]2.63 [1.87, 3.05]26% [5%, 50%]57%74%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.15 [1.57, 2.64]1.85-1.42 [-2.00, -0.41]2.63 [1.88, 3.06]26% [4%, 50%]57%74%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.15 [1.59, 2.67]1.85-1.42 [-2.10, -0.50]2.63 [1.92, 3.09]26% [0%, 50%]57%74%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.18 [1.59, 2.73]2.03-0.93 [-1.55, -0.12]2.58 [1.94, 3.02]26% [9%, 43%]48%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.18 [1.46, 2.71]2.03-0.93 [-1.70, 0.22]2.58 [1.79, 3.00]26% [5%, 45%]48%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.18 [1.51, 2.80]2.03-0.93 [-1.73, 0.35]2.58 [1.84, 3.05]26% [4%, 47%]48%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC2.18 [1.46, 2.79]2.03-0.93 [-1.81, 0.11]2.58 [1.79, 3.05]26% [0%, 45%]48%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.27 [0.99, 1.59]1.28+0.23 [-0.57, 0.92]1.66 [1.28, 2.05]52% [33%, 65%]78%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.27 [0.98, 1.62]1.28+0.23 [-0.69, 0.91]1.66 [1.28, 2.06]52% [27%, 67%]78%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.27 [0.97, 1.62]1.28+0.23 [-0.69, 0.91]1.66 [1.26, 2.08]52% [25%, 68%]78%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.27 [0.95, 1.64]1.28+0.23 [-0.88, 0.92]1.66 [1.25, 2.09]52% [25%, 68%]78%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC1.42 [1.15, 1.71]1.35+0.36 [-0.48, 1.05]1.71 [1.37, 2.05]35% [18%, 52%]83%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC1.42 [1.15, 1.74]1.35+0.36 [-0.58, 1.08]1.71 [1.39, 2.07]35% [15%, 57%]83%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC1.42 [1.12, 1.73]1.35+0.36 [-0.53, 1.04]1.71 [1.36, 2.09]35% [14%, 61%]83%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC1.42 [1.14, 1.76]1.35+0.36 [-0.81, 1.13]1.71 [1.35, 2.12]35% [13%, 56%]83%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -2.65 °F2026-08-08: -2.18 °F2026-08-09: +0.43 °F2026-08-10: -0.53 °F2026-08-11: -1.7 °F2026-08-12: -0.76 °F2026-08-13: -5 °F2026-08-14: -3.28 °F2026-08-15: +0.84 °F2026-08-16: -2.7 °F2026-08-17: -1.31 °F2026-08-18: -0.1 °F2026-08-19: -5.6 °F2026-08-20: +1.38 °F2026-08-21: -2 °F2026-08-22: -1.4 °F2026-08-23: +1.02 °F2026-08-24: -5.3 °F2026-08-25: -3.27 °F2026-08-26: +1.93 °F2026-08-27: -3.24 °F2026-08-29: +2.19 °F2026-08-30: +0.62 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.62
2026-08-29+2.19
2026-08-28—
2026-08-27-3.24
2026-08-26+1.93
2026-08-25-3.27
2026-08-24-5.30
2026-08-23+1.02
2026-08-22-1.40
2026-08-21-2.00
2026-08-20+1.38
2026-08-19-5.60
2026-08-18-0.10
2026-08-17-1.31
2026-08-16-2.70
2026-08-15+0.84
2026-08-14-3.28
2026-08-13-5.00
2026-08-12-0.76
2026-08-11-1.70
2026-08-10-0.53
2026-08-09+0.43
2026-08-08-2.18
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-2.65

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.93 · P90 |e| 4.65 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.15 -1.42

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -0.96 [-1.66, -0.61] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -2.53 [-5.15, 0.08] no
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -1.44 [-3.81, 0.94] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -3.37 [-8.43, 1.69] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -2.90 [-7.42, 1.62] no
NCEP GFS 23 -0.09 [-0.40, 0.37] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -2.97 [-6.18, 0.24] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -0.60 [-1.07, -0.27] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -1.24 [-3.23, 0.74] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -1.14 [-2.46, 0.18] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KBOS ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KBOS (Boston Logan), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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