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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Boston Logan · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KBOS · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.09 [3.30, 5.15]4.14-1.00 [-3.83, 0.73]4.83 [3.86, 5.83]12% [0%, 33%]29%41%+0.41+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.09 [3.27, 5.40]4.14-1.00 [-4.56, 0.74]4.83 [3.82, 6.03]12% [0%, 33%]29%41%+0.41+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.09 [3.23, 5.52]4.14-1.00 [-4.64, 1.11]4.83 [3.77, 6.10]12% [0%, 36%]29%41%+0.41+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.09 [3.22, 5.81]4.14-1.00 [-4.63, 0.75]4.83 [3.78, 6.26]12% [0%, 36%]29%41%+0.41+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC3.89 [3.06, 4.87]3.93-0.63 [-3.04, 0.93]4.46 [3.45, 5.44]6% [0%, 15%]29%41%+0.43+0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC3.89 [3.00, 5.10]3.93-0.63 [-3.61, 0.95]4.46 [3.38, 5.46]6% [0%, 15%]29%41%+0.43+0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC3.89 [2.95, 5.10]3.93-0.63 [-3.61, 1.24]4.46 [3.34, 5.42]6% [0%, 16%]29%41%+0.43+0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC3.89 [2.95, 5.19]3.93-0.63 [-3.62, 1.00]4.46 [3.36, 5.52]6% [0%, 15%]29%41%+0.43+0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC4.06 [1.89, 5.40]4.04-0.12 [-2.47, 1.61]5.08 [2.36, 6.45]16% [0%, 33%]37%47%+0.43+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC4.06 [1.56, 5.52]4.04-0.12 [-2.62, 1.66]5.08 [1.71, 6.62]16% [0%, 36%]37%47%+0.43+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC4.06 [1.58, 5.54]4.04-0.12 [-2.90, 1.93]5.08 [1.69, 6.67]16% [0%, 40%]37%47%+0.43+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC4.06 [1.55, 5.66]4.04-0.12 [-2.55, 1.55]5.08 [1.72, 6.74]16% [0%, 40%]37%47%+0.43+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC3.87 [1.83, 5.12]3.89+0.36 [-1.79, 1.92]4.81 [2.46, 5.99]26% [7%, 64%]37%42%+0.46+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC3.87 [1.26, 5.18]3.89+0.36 [-1.87, 1.99]4.81 [1.74, 6.13]26% [8%, 75%]37%42%+0.46+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC3.87 [1.26, 5.22]3.89+0.36 [-2.10, 2.25]4.81 [1.81, 6.15]26% [6%, 80%]37%42%+0.46+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC3.87 [1.05, 5.30]3.89+0.36 [-1.79, 1.87]4.81 [1.42, 6.27]26% [7%, 80%]37%42%+0.46+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.30 [1.55, 3.07]2.07+1.55 [0.54, 2.59]2.92 [1.76, 3.71]24% [7%, 35%]53%76%+0.22+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.30 [1.48, 3.09]2.07+1.55 [0.53, 2.61]2.92 [1.65, 3.74]24% [0%, 36%]53%76%+0.22+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.30 [1.38, 3.17]2.07+1.55 [0.49, 2.67]2.92 [1.58, 3.80]24% [0%, 35%]53%76%+0.22+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.30 [1.36, 3.07]2.07+1.55 [0.45, 2.58]2.92 [1.56, 3.70]24% [0%, 36%]53%76%+0.22+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC2.51 [1.74, 3.38]2.27+1.71 [0.63, 2.77]3.18 [1.99, 4.06]24% [7%, 35%]53%65%+0.15+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC2.51 [1.64, 3.39]2.27+1.71 [0.61, 2.85]3.18 [1.88, 4.10]24% [0%, 36%]53%65%+0.15+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC2.51 [1.60, 3.49]2.27+1.71 [0.55, 2.93]3.18 [1.81, 4.16]24% [0%, 35%]53%65%+0.15+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC2.51 [1.60, 3.36]2.27+1.71 [0.50, 2.81]3.18 [1.79, 4.08]24% [0%, 36%]53%65%+0.15+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.31 [1.82, 3.32]2.29+0.61 [-1.83, 1.68]2.89 [2.24, 3.86]21% [0%, 41%]58%74%+0.26+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.31 [1.77, 4.00]2.29+0.61 [-2.81, 1.74]2.89 [2.23, 4.48]21% [0%, 40%]58%74%+0.26+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.31 [1.72, 3.94]2.29+0.61 [-2.64, 1.81]2.89 [2.17, 4.17]21% [0%, 42%]58%74%+0.26+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.31 [1.74, 3.94]2.29+0.61 [-2.62, 1.77]2.89 [2.21, 4.18]21% [0%, 42%]58%74%+0.26+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC2.48 [1.97, 3.55]2.49+0.66 [-1.99, 1.82]3.10 [2.47, 4.11]21% [0%, 41%]47%68%+0.20+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC2.48 [1.97, 4.36]2.49+0.66 [-3.07, 1.86]3.10 [2.45, 4.83]21% [0%, 40%]47%68%+0.20+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC2.48 [1.90, 4.28]2.49+0.66 [-2.86, 1.91]3.10 [2.36, 4.57]21% [0%, 42%]47%68%+0.20+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC2.48 [1.94, 4.39]2.49+0.66 [-2.95, 1.89]3.10 [2.39, 4.57]21% [0%, 42%]47%68%+0.20+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -6.47 °F2026-08-12: +0.84 °F2026-08-13: -7.81 °F2026-08-14: -3.93 °F2026-08-16: +0.39 °F2026-08-17: +8.17 °F2026-08-19: -8.01 °F2026-08-20: +2.3 °F2026-08-21: +5.92 °F2026-08-22: +2.55 °F2026-08-23: +3.31 °F2026-08-24: -5.23 °F2026-08-25: -1.38 °F2026-08-26: +1.2 °F2026-08-27: -4.51 °F2026-08-29: +1.56 °F2026-08-30: -5.87 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.87
2026-08-29+1.56
2026-08-28—
2026-08-27-4.51
2026-08-26+1.20
2026-08-25-1.38
2026-08-24-5.23
2026-08-23+3.31
2026-08-22+2.55
2026-08-21+5.92
2026-08-20+2.30
2026-08-19-8.01
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17+8.17
2026-08-16+0.39
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-3.93
2026-08-13-7.81
2026-08-12+0.84
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-6.47

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 1 day9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.93 · P90 |e| 7.89 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.001
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08174.09 -1.00

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 -0.70 [-1.74, 2.73] no
NCEP GFS 17 -0.64 [-1.84, 1.30] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -0.43 [-2.03, 2.64] no
Persistence (baseline) 17 -2.80 [-4.28, 0.75] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KBOS ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KBOS (Boston Logan), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence