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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Diego Lindbergh · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KSAN · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC5.47 [3.40, 7.18]2.25-5.47 [-7.18, -3.40]6.25 [3.75, 7.83]6% [0%, 15%]11%17%-0.39+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC5.47 [3.11, 7.31]2.25-5.47 [-7.31, -3.11]6.25 [3.45, 7.89]6% [0%, 16%]11%17%-0.39+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC5.47 [3.05, 7.40]2.25-5.47 [-7.40, -3.05]6.25 [3.35, 8.03]6% [0%, 14%]11%17%-0.39+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC5.47 [3.14, 7.60]2.25-5.47 [-7.60, -3.14]6.25 [3.44, 8.24]6% [0%, 15%]11%17%-0.39+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC9.43 [6.92, 11.21]2.42-9.43 [-11.21, -6.92]9.89 [7.10, 11.55]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.39+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC9.43 [6.64, 11.27]2.42-9.43 [-11.27, -6.64]9.89 [6.83, 11.61]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.39+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC9.43 [6.60, 11.43]2.42-9.43 [-11.43, -6.60]9.89 [6.75, 11.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.39+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC9.43 [6.45, 11.52]2.42-9.43 [-11.52, -6.45]9.89 [6.56, 11.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.39+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC5.45 [3.72, 7.08]2.22-5.44 [-7.07, -3.70]6.06 [3.87, 7.48]6% [0%, 15%]6%18%-0.32+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC5.45 [3.64, 7.10]2.22-5.44 [-7.10, -3.64]6.06 [3.81, 7.48]6% [0%, 16%]6%18%-0.32+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC5.45 [3.66, 7.18]2.22-5.44 [-7.17, -3.64]6.06 [3.79, 7.59]6% [0%, 14%]6%18%-0.32+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC5.45 [3.60, 7.40]2.22-5.44 [-7.40, -3.60]6.06 [3.72, 7.70]6% [0%, 15%]6%18%-0.32+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC9.43 [6.94, 11.04]2.32-9.43 [-11.04, -6.94]9.83 [7.14, 11.27]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.29+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC9.43 [6.82, 11.05]2.32-9.43 [-11.05, -6.82]9.83 [6.99, 11.27]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.29+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC9.43 [6.72, 11.16]2.32-9.43 [-11.16, -6.72]9.83 [6.93, 11.43]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.29+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC9.43 [6.56, 11.26]2.32-9.43 [-11.26, -6.56]9.83 [6.69, 11.52]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.29+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC1.40 [1.02, 1.71]1.21-0.82 [-1.39, 0.02]1.70 [1.28, 1.99]50% [27%, 67%]72%94%+0.16+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC1.40 [1.01, 1.69]1.21-0.82 [-1.42, 0.41]1.70 [1.28, 1.99]50% [20%, 64%]72%94%+0.16+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC1.40 [0.94, 1.67]1.21-0.82 [-1.50, 0.35]1.70 [1.18, 2.00]50% [19%, 67%]72%94%+0.16+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC1.40 [0.94, 1.70]1.21-0.82 [-1.47, 0.36]1.70 [1.21, 1.99]50% [25%, 67%]72%94%+0.16+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC1.37 [1.10, 1.78]1.26-0.75 [-1.38, 0.34]1.72 [1.25, 2.20]44% [14%, 59%]83%94%+0.18+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC1.37 [1.09, 1.86]1.26-0.75 [-1.52, 0.77]1.72 [1.25, 2.31]44% [0%, 60%]83%94%+0.18+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC1.37 [1.07, 1.83]1.26-0.75 [-1.47, 0.74]1.72 [1.21, 2.27]44% [0%, 60%]83%94%+0.18+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC1.37 [1.08, 1.79]1.26-0.75 [-1.58, 0.73]1.72 [1.20, 2.23]44% [0%, 60%]83%94%+0.18+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC1.44 [0.99, 1.93]1.44-0.69 [-1.26, 0.11]1.79 [1.37, 2.10]35% [0%, 63%]65%94%+0.13+0.152026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC1.44 [0.99, 2.05]1.44-0.69 [-1.22, 0.42]1.79 [1.35, 2.15]35% [0%, 67%]65%94%+0.13+0.152026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC1.44 [0.95, 2.01]1.44-0.69 [-1.28, 0.29]1.79 [1.31, 2.15]35% [0%, 67%]65%94%+0.13+0.152026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC1.44 [0.89, 2.05]1.44-0.69 [-1.30, 0.37]1.79 [1.27, 2.14]35% [0%, 67%]65%94%+0.13+0.152026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC1.27 [1.03, 1.64]1.30-0.51 [-1.04, 0.45]1.60 [1.18, 2.01]47% [25%, 59%]82%94%+0.23+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC1.27 [1.02, 1.75]1.30-0.51 [-1.08, 0.75]1.60 [1.17, 2.09]47% [17%, 59%]82%94%+0.23+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC1.27 [1.02, 1.75]1.30-0.51 [-1.12, 0.71]1.60 [1.16, 2.03]47% [0%, 60%]82%94%+0.23+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC1.27 [1.01, 1.75]1.30-0.51 [-1.13, 0.79]1.60 [1.14, 2.02]47% [0%, 60%]82%94%+0.23+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: -5.47 °F2026-08-14: -3.43 °F2026-08-15: -3.05 °F2026-08-16: -2.94 °F2026-08-17: -4.23 °F2026-08-18: -5.53 °F2026-08-19: -6.68 °F2026-08-20: -5.29 °F2026-08-21: -9.6 °F2026-08-22: -6.26 °F2026-08-23: -13.64 °F2026-08-24: -6.64 °F2026-08-25: -7.52 °F2026-08-26: -8.19 °F2026-08-27: -0.93 °F2026-08-28: -4.92 °F2026-08-29: -3.19 °F2026-08-30: -1.04 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.04
2026-08-29-3.19
2026-08-28-4.92
2026-08-27-0.93
2026-08-26-8.19
2026-08-25-7.52
2026-08-24-6.64
2026-08-23-13.64
2026-08-22-6.26
2026-08-21-9.60
2026-08-20-5.29
2026-08-19-6.68
2026-08-18-5.53
2026-08-17-4.23
2026-08-16-2.94
2026-08-15-3.05
2026-08-14-3.43
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-5.47

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.38 · P90 |e| 8.62 °F-200+20 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.004
-6.00-4.005
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08185.47 -5.47

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +2.28 [1.17, 3.34] yes
NCEP GFS 18 +1.73 [-0.99, 3.33] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -0.59 [-2.39, 0.73] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 +1.53 [-1.24, 3.95] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAN ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAN (San Diego Lindbergh), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence