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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Phoenix Sky Harbor · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KPHX · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.98 [2.37, 3.69]1.70-2.57 [-3.45, -1.69]3.51 [2.54, 4.45]9% [0%, 17%]27%68%+0.46+0.692026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.98 [2.29, 3.96]1.70-2.57 [-3.63, -1.60]3.51 [2.44, 4.76]9% [0%, 18%]27%68%+0.46+0.692026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.98 [2.30, 4.01]1.70-2.57 [-3.75, -1.64]3.51 [2.44, 4.81]9% [0%, 18%]27%68%+0.46+0.692026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.98 [2.29, 3.96]1.70-2.57 [-3.69, -1.65]3.51 [2.43, 4.78]9% [0%, 17%]27%68%+0.46+0.692026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.93 [2.34, 3.50]1.81-2.48 [-3.29, -1.54]3.43 [2.62, 4.15]18% [9%, 26%]27%64%+0.47+0.672026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.93 [2.21, 3.75]1.81-2.48 [-3.47, -1.52]3.43 [2.42, 4.42]18% [8%, 27%]27%64%+0.47+0.672026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.93 [2.20, 3.82]1.81-2.48 [-3.54, -1.53]3.43 [2.37, 4.55]18% [7%, 27%]27%64%+0.47+0.672026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC2.93 [2.15, 3.75]1.81-2.48 [-3.48, -1.54]3.43 [2.31, 4.44]18% [0%, 27%]27%64%+0.47+0.672026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.96 [2.29, 4.05]1.56-2.73 [-3.80, -2.14]3.54 [2.44, 4.78]5% [0%, 14%]41%68%+0.46+0.712026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.96 [2.28, 4.49]1.56-2.73 [-4.21, -2.09]3.54 [2.43, 5.31]5% [0%, 17%]41%68%+0.46+0.712026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.96 [2.22, 4.40]1.56-2.73 [-4.14, -2.04]3.54 [2.36, 5.26]5% [0%, 15%]41%68%+0.46+0.712026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.96 [2.29, 4.48]1.56-2.73 [-4.23, -2.12]3.54 [2.43, 5.29]5% [0%, 15%]41%68%+0.46+0.712026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.85 [2.32, 3.65]1.45-2.65 [-3.52, -2.16]3.36 [2.46, 4.44]5% [0%, 14%]41%68%+0.48+0.732026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.85 [2.27, 4.09]1.45-2.65 [-3.90, -2.06]3.36 [2.40, 4.91]5% [0%, 17%]41%68%+0.48+0.732026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.85 [2.21, 4.06]1.45-2.65 [-3.83, -1.94]3.36 [2.34, 4.92]5% [0%, 15%]41%68%+0.48+0.732026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC2.85 [2.22, 4.05]1.45-2.65 [-3.89, -2.03]3.36 [2.34, 4.89]5% [0%, 15%]41%68%+0.48+0.732026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.50 [2.48, 4.56]3.55+1.34 [-0.68, 3.50]4.64 [3.11, 5.91]23% [7%, 33%]45%55%+0.46+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.50 [2.32, 4.62]3.55+1.34 [-0.77, 3.89]4.64 [2.72, 6.01]23% [0%, 32%]45%55%+0.46+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.50 [2.33, 4.57]3.55+1.34 [-1.06, 3.88]4.64 [2.71, 5.94]23% [0%, 33%]45%55%+0.46+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.50 [2.27, 4.66]3.55+1.34 [-1.17, 4.08]4.64 [2.64, 5.95]23% [0%, 33%]45%55%+0.46+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.67 [2.51, 4.84]3.58+1.98 [-0.03, 4.13]4.94 [3.26, 6.27]32% [17%, 41%]41%55%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.67 [2.32, 4.96]3.58+1.98 [-0.16, 4.53]4.94 [2.78, 6.33]32% [0%, 42%]41%55%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.67 [2.25, 4.89]3.58+1.98 [-0.45, 4.52]4.94 [2.77, 6.30]32% [0%, 43%]41%55%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC3.67 [2.23, 5.05]3.58+1.98 [-0.55, 4.68]4.94 [2.64, 6.36]32% [0%, 43%]41%55%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.48 [2.43, 4.77]3.54+0.72 [-1.42, 3.18]4.62 [3.15, 6.05]27% [12%, 41%]41%55%+0.46+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.48 [2.42, 4.85]3.54+0.72 [-1.63, 3.49]4.62 [3.08, 6.15]27% [11%, 42%]41%55%+0.46+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.48 [2.37, 4.81]3.54+0.72 [-1.87, 3.56]4.62 [3.02, 6.20]27% [8%, 44%]41%55%+0.46+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.48 [2.40, 4.83]3.54+0.72 [-1.98, 3.56]4.62 [3.07, 6.15]27% [9%, 43%]41%55%+0.46+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.52 [2.47, 4.87]3.48+1.35 [-0.78, 3.81]4.79 [3.24, 6.32]27% [15%, 38%]41%50%+0.45+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.52 [2.46, 4.96]3.48+1.35 [-1.02, 4.15]4.79 [3.20, 6.46]27% [11%, 38%]41%50%+0.45+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.52 [2.42, 5.01]3.48+1.35 [-1.20, 4.20]4.79 [3.12, 6.50]27% [11%, 40%]41%50%+0.45+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC3.52 [2.43, 4.98]3.48+1.35 [-1.38, 4.18]4.79 [3.15, 6.45]27% [0%, 38%]41%50%+0.45+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHX, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -2.56 °F2026-08-10: -1.49 °F2026-08-11: -3.59 °F2026-08-12: -1.03 °F2026-08-13: -4.36 °F2026-08-14: -4.56 °F2026-08-15: -5.92 °F2026-08-16: -2.74 °F2026-08-17: -2.25 °F2026-08-18: -2.36 °F2026-08-19: -0.61 °F2026-08-20: -3.51 °F2026-08-21: -2.93 °F2026-08-22: -2.82 °F2026-08-23: -2.69 °F2026-08-24: +1.78 °F2026-08-25: -1.26 °F2026-08-26: -2.56 °F2026-08-27: +2.04 °F2026-08-28: +0.74 °F2026-08-29: -8.82 °F2026-08-30: -4.94 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.94
2026-08-29-8.82
2026-08-28+0.74
2026-08-27+2.04
2026-08-26-2.56
2026-08-25-1.26
2026-08-24+1.78
2026-08-23-2.69
2026-08-22-2.82
2026-08-21-2.93
2026-08-20-3.51
2026-08-19-0.61
2026-08-18-2.36
2026-08-17-2.25
2026-08-16-2.74
2026-08-15-5.92
2026-08-14-4.56
2026-08-13-4.36
2026-08-12-1.03
2026-08-11-3.59
2026-08-10-1.49
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-2.56

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHX, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 8 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.62 · P90 |e| 4.9 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.008
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08222.98 -2.57

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -1.02 [-2.35, 0.40] no
NCEP GFS 22 -1.25 [-1.65, -0.37] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -1.15 [-2.10, 0.62] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 -2.52 [-4.29, -1.13] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHX ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHX (Phoenix Sky Harbor), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence