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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Los Angeles Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KLAX · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC2.43 [1.28, 3.14]1.84-1.48 [-2.17, -0.67]2.90 [1.60, 3.56]11% [0%, 40%]50%67%+0.22+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC2.43 [0.76, 3.22]1.84-1.48 [-2.18, -0.39]2.90 [1.19, 3.63]11% [0%, 62%]50%67%+0.22+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC2.43 [0.73, 3.24]1.84-1.48 [-2.21, -0.27]2.90 [0.97, 3.65]11% [0%, 61%]50%67%+0.22+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 2 QC2.43 [0.77, 3.20]1.84-1.48 [-2.31, -0.26]2.90 [1.17, 3.59]11% [0%, 57%]50%67%+0.22+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 2 QC4.99 [3.71, 5.87]2.08-4.84 [-5.74, -3.58]5.53 [3.98, 6.30]0% [0%, 0%]17%22%-0.60+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 2 QC4.99 [3.55, 5.87]2.08-4.84 [-5.73, -3.51]5.53 [3.74, 6.30]0% [0%, 0%]17%22%-0.60+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 2 QC4.99 [3.45, 5.99]2.08-4.84 [-5.79, -3.42]5.53 [3.70, 6.40]0% [0%, 0%]17%22%-0.60+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 2 QC4.99 [3.42, 6.00]2.08-4.84 [-5.82, -3.42]5.53 [3.70, 6.46]0% [0%, 0%]17%22%-0.60+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 2 QC2.29 [1.41, 2.78]1.76-1.34 [-1.94, -0.76]2.58 [1.93, 2.97]20% [0%, 57%]40%70%+0.27+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 2 QC2.29 [0.98, 2.88]1.76-1.34 [-1.99, -0.50]2.58 [1.42, 3.06]20% [0%, 75%]40%70%+0.27+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 2 QC2.29 [0.89, 2.93]1.76-1.34 [-2.03, -0.52]2.58 [1.31, 3.07]20% [0%, 80%]40%70%+0.27+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 2 QC2.29 [0.93, 2.83]1.76-1.34 [-2.05, -0.52]2.58 [1.35, 3.04]20% [0%, 75%]40%70%+0.27+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 2 QC4.74 [3.74, 5.63]2.03-4.58 [-5.48, -3.65]5.22 [4.20, 5.90]5% [0%, 12%]20%20%-0.50+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 2 QC4.74 [3.72, 5.71]2.03-4.58 [-5.52, -3.67]5.22 [4.13, 5.98]5% [0%, 13%]20%20%-0.50+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 2 QC4.74 [3.70, 5.72]2.03-4.58 [-5.60, -3.64]5.22 [4.11, 6.00]5% [0%, 13%]20%20%-0.50+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 2 QC4.74 [3.69, 5.78]2.03-4.58 [-5.63, -3.64]5.22 [4.02, 6.01]5% [0%, 13%]20%20%-0.50+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC1.52 [0.97, 2.19]1.29+1.38 [0.62, 2.12]2.14 [1.36, 2.82]50% [33%, 69%]72%83%+0.20+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC1.52 [0.92, 2.33]1.29+1.38 [0.50, 2.22]2.14 [1.25, 2.92]50% [27%, 72%]72%83%+0.20+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC1.52 [0.85, 2.38]1.29+1.38 [0.40, 2.21]2.14 [1.18, 2.94]50% [25%, 75%]72%83%+0.20+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 2 QC1.52 [0.82, 2.36]1.29+1.38 [0.38, 2.22]2.14 [1.16, 2.89]50% [26%, 75%]72%83%+0.20+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 2 QC1.19 [0.74, 1.83]1.24+0.59 [-0.31, 1.40]1.85 [0.89, 2.66]72% [50%, 84%]83%89%+0.37+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 2 QC1.19 [0.72, 1.89]1.24+0.59 [-0.47, 1.54]1.85 [0.85, 2.80]72% [33%, 86%]83%89%+0.37+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 2 QC1.19 [0.73, 1.91]1.24+0.59 [-0.52, 1.54]1.85 [0.85, 2.79]72% [40%, 86%]83%89%+0.37+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 2 QC1.19 [0.70, 1.89]1.24+0.59 [-0.52, 1.52]1.85 [0.81, 2.75]72% [40%, 86%]83%89%+0.37+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 2 QC1.30 [0.81, 1.81]1.05+1.05 [0.44, 1.55]1.74 [1.08, 2.33]45% [30%, 67%]85%90%+0.32+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 2 QC1.30 [0.73, 1.90]1.05+1.05 [0.25, 1.61]1.74 [1.00, 2.43]45% [30%, 71%]85%90%+0.32+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 2 QC1.30 [0.67, 1.89]1.05+1.05 [0.26, 1.63]1.74 [0.91, 2.42]45% [29%, 75%]85%90%+0.32+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 2 QC1.30 [0.68, 1.88]1.05+1.05 [0.18, 1.59]1.74 [0.88, 2.38]45% [29%, 73%]85%90%+0.32+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 2 QC1.04 [0.81, 1.33]1.02+0.26 [-0.43, 0.64]1.28 [0.98, 1.52]45% [22%, 67%]90%100%+0.45+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 2 QC1.04 [0.80, 1.42]1.02+0.26 [-0.80, 0.64]1.28 [0.92, 1.57]45% [17%, 69%]90%100%+0.45+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 2 QC1.04 [0.78, 1.44]1.02+0.26 [-0.75, 0.67]1.28 [0.90, 1.57]45% [14%, 70%]90%100%+0.45+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 2 QC1.04 [0.78, 1.43]1.02+0.26 [-0.86, 0.68]1.28 [0.90, 1.57]45% [14%, 70%]90%100%+0.45+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -0.2 °F2026-08-12: -0.01 °F2026-08-13: -1.48 °F2026-08-14: -2.68 °F2026-08-16: +1.4 °F2026-08-17: -1.81 °F2026-08-19: -5.38 °F2026-08-20: +3.89 °F2026-08-21: -4.3 °F2026-08-22: -1.49 °F2026-08-23: -5.6 °F2026-08-24: -1.26 °F2026-08-25: -2.21 °F2026-08-26: -1.13 °F2026-08-27: -3.57 °F2026-08-28: +3.27 °F2026-08-29: -2.85 °F2026-08-30: -1.24 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.24
2026-08-29-2.85
2026-08-28+3.27
2026-08-27-3.57
2026-08-26-1.13
2026-08-25-2.21
2026-08-24-1.26
2026-08-23-5.60
2026-08-22-1.49
2026-08-21-4.30
2026-08-20+3.89
2026-08-19-5.38
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-1.81
2026-08-16+1.40
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-2.68
2026-08-13-1.48
2026-08-12-0.01
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-0.20

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.01 · P90 |e| 4.62 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08182.43 -1.48

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.16 [-0.89, 0.76] no
NCEP GFS 18 +0.57 [-0.44, 1.53] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -1.65 [-3.14, -0.40] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -0.68 [-1.80, 0.45] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAX ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAX (Los Angeles Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence