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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Diego Lindbergh · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KSAN · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC5.86 [4.64, 6.98]1.79-5.86 [-6.98, -4.64]6.33 [4.91, 7.37]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-0.82+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC5.86 [4.55, 7.03]1.79-5.86 [-7.03, -4.55]6.33 [4.83, 7.43]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-0.82+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC5.86 [4.56, 7.12]1.79-5.86 [-7.12, -4.56]6.33 [4.83, 7.49]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-0.82+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC5.86 [4.56, 7.29]1.79-5.86 [-7.29, -4.56]6.33 [4.80, 7.63]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-0.82+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC9.91 [7.72, 11.41]2.22-9.91 [-11.41, -7.72]10.29 [7.77, 11.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.08+0.292026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC9.91 [7.51, 11.40]2.22-9.91 [-11.40, -7.51]10.29 [7.58, 11.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.08+0.292026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC9.91 [7.50, 11.64]2.22-9.91 [-11.64, -7.50]10.29 [7.58, 11.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.08+0.292026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC9.91 [7.45, 11.66]2.22-9.91 [-11.66, -7.45]10.29 [7.54, 11.94]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.08+0.292026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC5.80 [4.82, 6.84]1.80-5.80 [-6.84, -4.82]6.31 [5.00, 7.28]5% [0%, 14%]5%10%-0.81+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC5.80 [4.76, 6.86]1.80-5.80 [-6.86, -4.76]6.31 [4.98, 7.29]5% [0%, 15%]5%10%-0.81+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC5.80 [4.79, 6.96]1.80-5.80 [-6.96, -4.79]6.31 [4.95, 7.38]5% [0%, 14%]5%10%-0.81+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC5.80 [4.73, 7.03]1.80-5.80 [-7.03, -4.73]6.31 [4.90, 7.44]5% [0%, 14%]5%10%-0.81+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC9.60 [7.65, 11.13]2.20-9.60 [-11.13, -7.65]9.99 [7.78, 11.51]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.00+0.292026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC9.60 [7.56, 11.13]2.20-9.60 [-11.13, -7.56]9.99 [7.65, 11.49]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.00+0.292026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC9.60 [7.55, 11.32]2.20-9.60 [-11.32, -7.55]9.99 [7.64, 11.62]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.00+0.292026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC9.60 [7.52, 11.38]2.20-9.60 [-11.38, -7.52]9.99 [7.60, 11.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.00+0.292026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC1.40 [1.17, 1.69]0.98-0.98 [-1.56, -0.42]1.59 [1.39, 1.81]33% [12%, 48%]78%100%+0.10+0.222026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC1.40 [1.18, 1.70]0.98-0.98 [-1.65, -0.35]1.59 [1.36, 1.82]33% [0%, 47%]78%100%+0.10+0.222026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC1.40 [1.15, 1.71]0.98-0.98 [-1.65, -0.36]1.59 [1.35, 1.82]33% [0%, 50%]78%100%+0.10+0.222026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC1.40 [1.16, 1.73]0.98-0.98 [-1.66, -0.38]1.59 [1.37, 1.80]33% [0%, 48%]78%100%+0.10+0.222026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC1.18 [0.99, 1.35]0.82-0.89 [-1.25, -0.62]1.36 [1.08, 1.52]44% [31%, 64%]89%100%+0.24+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC1.18 [0.95, 1.34]0.82-0.89 [-1.26, -0.65]1.36 [1.05, 1.52]44% [29%, 71%]89%100%+0.24+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC1.18 [0.95, 1.35]0.82-0.89 [-1.28, -0.63]1.36 [1.01, 1.53]44% [27%, 75%]89%100%+0.24+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC1.18 [0.95, 1.36]0.82-0.89 [-1.28, -0.62]1.36 [1.01, 1.52]44% [29%, 75%]89%100%+0.24+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC1.54 [1.25, 1.92]1.14-1.26 [-1.67, -0.98]1.84 [1.59, 2.17]35% [6%, 59%]65%85%+0.01+0.202026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC1.54 [1.19, 1.94]1.14-1.26 [-1.71, -0.98]1.84 [1.53, 2.19]35% [0%, 58%]65%85%+0.01+0.202026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC1.54 [1.19, 1.98]1.14-1.26 [-1.76, -0.98]1.84 [1.53, 2.22]35% [0%, 60%]65%85%+0.01+0.202026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC1.54 [1.19, 1.99]1.14-1.26 [-1.81, -0.96]1.84 [1.53, 2.24]35% [0%, 60%]65%85%+0.01+0.202026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC1.41 [0.93, 2.05]1.21-1.13 [-1.99, -0.45]1.81 [1.20, 2.39]40% [20%, 58%]70%90%+0.09+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC1.41 [0.87, 2.20]1.21-1.13 [-2.12, -0.44]1.81 [1.10, 2.46]40% [17%, 62%]70%90%+0.09+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC1.41 [0.82, 2.22]1.21-1.13 [-2.21, -0.39]1.81 [1.08, 2.54]40% [17%, 67%]70%90%+0.09+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC1.41 [0.85, 2.23]1.21-1.13 [-2.21, -0.37]1.81 [1.09, 2.54]40% [17%, 62%]70%90%+0.09+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: -5.2 °F2026-08-12: -5.82 °F2026-08-13: -4.35 °F2026-08-14: -5.22 °F2026-08-16: -2.95 °F2026-08-17: -4.91 °F2026-08-19: -6.18 °F2026-08-20: -6.52 °F2026-08-21: -8.77 °F2026-08-22: -6.27 °F2026-08-23: -11.73 °F2026-08-24: -5.44 °F2026-08-25: -6.1 °F2026-08-26: -9.35 °F2026-08-27: -4.11 °F2026-08-28: -1.66 °F2026-08-29: -8.03 °F2026-08-30: -2.84 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.84
2026-08-29-8.03
2026-08-28-1.66
2026-08-27-4.11
2026-08-26-9.35
2026-08-25-6.10
2026-08-24-5.44
2026-08-23-11.73
2026-08-22-6.27
2026-08-21-8.77
2026-08-20-6.52
2026-08-19-6.18
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-4.91
2026-08-16-2.95
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-5.22
2026-08-13-4.35
2026-08-12-5.82
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-5.20

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 3 days-8 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.63 · P90 |e| 8.95 °F-200+20 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.003
-8.00-6.004
-6.00-4.007
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.001
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08185.86 -5.86

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +2.32 [1.39, 3.32] yes
NCEP GFS 18 +2.67 [0.95, 4.20] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 +0.05 [-1.46, 1.16] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 +2.64 [1.26, 4.24] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAN ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAN (San Diego Lindbergh), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence