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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KEWR · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.50 [2.76, 4.80]3.08-2.25 [-3.82, -1.22]4.27 [3.48, 5.40]24% [0%, 36%]35%47%+0.23+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.50 [2.75, 5.46]3.08-2.25 [-4.38, -1.25]4.27 [3.50, 5.71]24% [0%, 36%]35%47%+0.23+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.50 [2.75, 5.68]3.08-2.25 [-5.04, -1.10]4.27 [3.47, 6.13]24% [0%, 38%]35%47%+0.23+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.50 [2.59, 5.76]3.08-2.25 [-4.68, -0.98]4.27 [3.24, 6.01]24% [0%, 38%]35%47%+0.23+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC3.77 [2.93, 5.41]3.55-1.61 [-3.36, -0.54]4.43 [3.44, 5.91]18% [0%, 27%]35%47%+0.17+0.022026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC3.77 [2.87, 6.00]3.55-1.61 [-4.18, -0.57]4.43 [3.40, 6.02]18% [0%, 28%]35%47%+0.17+0.022026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC3.77 [2.81, 6.02]3.55-1.61 [-5.01, -0.36]4.43 [3.35, 6.06]18% [0%, 29%]35%47%+0.17+0.022026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC3.77 [2.71, 6.02]3.55-1.61 [-4.24, -0.27]4.43 [3.20, 6.07]18% [0%, 29%]35%47%+0.17+0.022026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.15 [3.22, 5.50]3.30-3.26 [-4.76, -2.31]5.24 [4.07, 6.32]24% [12%, 36%]24%35%+0.08+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.15 [3.17, 5.66]3.30-3.26 [-5.36, -2.20]5.24 [4.06, 6.42]24% [10%, 36%]24%35%+0.08+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.15 [3.02, 6.80]3.30-3.26 [-6.80, -2.17]5.24 [3.93, 6.80]24% [0%, 38%]24%35%+0.08+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.15 [3.09, 5.84]3.30-3.26 [-5.50, -2.24]5.24 [3.99, 6.79]24% [11%, 38%]24%35%+0.08+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC4.45 [3.51, 5.90]3.75-3.12 [-4.92, -1.97]5.64 [4.33, 6.83]24% [12%, 36%]29%41%+0.02-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC4.45 [3.49, 6.03]3.75-3.12 [-5.67, -1.90]5.64 [4.33, 6.95]24% [10%, 36%]29%41%+0.02-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC4.45 [3.39, 7.17]3.75-3.12 [-7.17, -1.86]5.64 [4.17, 7.17]24% [0%, 38%]29%41%+0.02-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC4.45 [3.40, 6.31]3.75-3.12 [-5.91, -2.03]5.64 [4.17, 7.17]24% [11%, 38%]29%41%+0.02-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.72 [2.41, 4.72]2.90+2.72 [1.57, 3.67]4.54 [3.36, 5.30]24% [8%, 50%]24%47%+0.16+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.72 [1.83, 4.82]2.90+2.72 [1.32, 3.69]4.54 [2.98, 5.32]24% [7%, 75%]24%47%+0.16+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.72 [0.43, 4.87]2.90+2.72 [0.39, 3.76]4.54 [0.44, 5.44]24% [5%, 100%]24%47%+0.16+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.72 [1.94, 4.80]2.90+2.72 [1.26, 3.68]4.54 [2.86, 5.30]24% [6%, 75%]24%47%+0.16+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC3.52 [2.42, 4.42]2.91+2.08 [0.95, 3.05]4.16 [3.10, 4.92]12% [0%, 50%]24%47%+0.20+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC3.52 [1.98, 4.43]2.91+2.08 [0.66, 3.11]4.16 [2.72, 4.92]12% [0%, 75%]24%47%+0.20+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC3.52 [0.85, 4.58]2.91+2.08 [-0.23, 3.11]4.16 [0.85, 5.04]12% [0%, 100%]24%47%+0.20+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC3.52 [1.99, 4.48]2.91+2.08 [0.59, 3.09]4.16 [2.65, 4.87]12% [0%, 75%]24%47%+0.20+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.91 [2.74, 4.86]3.20+2.50 [1.43, 3.66]4.69 [3.45, 5.52]18% [0%, 36%]24%47%+0.11+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.91 [2.59, 4.95]3.20+2.50 [1.42, 3.82]4.69 [3.22, 5.56]18% [0%, 37%]24%47%+0.11+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.91 [2.53, 4.99]3.20+2.50 [1.29, 3.82]4.69 [3.10, 5.60]18% [0%, 37%]24%47%+0.11+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.91 [2.59, 4.99]3.20+2.50 [1.32, 3.72]4.69 [3.21, 5.62]18% [0%, 36%]24%47%+0.11+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.72 [2.47, 4.69]3.26+1.84 [0.78, 3.03]4.43 [3.03, 5.29]6% [0%, 18%]29%47%+0.16+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.72 [2.30, 4.78]3.26+1.84 [0.77, 3.19]4.43 [2.83, 5.37]6% [0%, 20%]29%47%+0.16+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.72 [2.17, 4.80]3.26+1.84 [0.61, 3.19]4.43 [2.45, 5.41]6% [0%, 18%]29%47%+0.16+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC3.72 [2.22, 4.80]3.26+1.84 [0.67, 3.11]4.43 [2.76, 5.42]6% [0%, 17%]29%47%+0.16+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: -6.3 °F2026-08-15: +2.89 °F2026-08-16: -8.1 °F2026-08-17: -0.41 °F2026-08-18: -6.25 °F2026-08-19: -1.49 °F2026-08-20: +5.63 °F2026-08-21: -3.24 °F2026-08-22: +0.59 °F2026-08-23: -2.24 °F2026-08-24: -3.89 °F2026-08-25: -0.51 °F2026-08-26: +0.19 °F2026-08-27: -5.92 °F2026-08-28: -5.58 °F2026-08-29: +1.32 °F2026-08-30: -4.88 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.88
2026-08-29+1.32
2026-08-28-5.58
2026-08-27-5.92
2026-08-26+0.19
2026-08-25-0.51
2026-08-24-3.89
2026-08-23-2.24
2026-08-22+0.59
2026-08-21-3.24
2026-08-20+5.63
2026-08-19-1.49
2026-08-18-6.25
2026-08-17-0.41
2026-08-16-8.10
2026-08-15+2.89
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-6.30

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.24 · P90 |e| 6.27 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08173.50 -2.25

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 -0.42 [-1.75, 1.16] no
NCEP GFS 17 +0.02 [-0.86, 2.79] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -1.40 [-2.79, -0.19] yes
Persistence (baseline) 17 -1.03 [-2.53, 2.08] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence