Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KSAT · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.93 [1.81, 3.82]1.45-2.93 [-3.82, -1.81]3.44 [2.20, 4.34]11% [0%, 38%]37%68%-0.33+0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.93 [1.52, 3.81]1.45-2.93 [-3.81, -1.52]3.44 [1.96, 4.36]11% [0%, 58%]37%68%-0.33+0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.93 [1.62, 3.92]1.45-2.93 [-3.92, -1.62]3.44 [1.99, 4.47]11% [0%, 50%]37%68%-0.33+0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.93 [1.52, 3.89]1.45-2.93 [-3.89, -1.52]3.44 [1.84, 4.44]11% [0%, 50%]37%68%-0.33+0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC2.38 [1.23, 3.30]1.49-2.33 [-3.30, -1.11]2.99 [1.68, 3.96]21% [0%, 62%]58%74%-0.08+0.322026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC2.38 [0.91, 3.29]1.49-2.33 [-3.29, -0.76]2.99 [1.45, 3.99]21% [0%, 80%]58%74%-0.08+0.322026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC2.38 [1.03, 3.41]1.49-2.33 [-3.40, -0.89]2.99 [1.47, 4.09]21% [0%, 80%]58%74%-0.08+0.322026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC2.38 [0.90, 3.38]1.49-2.33 [-3.38, -0.74]2.99 [1.33, 4.05]21% [0%, 83%]58%74%-0.08+0.322026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.87 [2.11, 3.67]1.51-2.87 [-3.67, -2.11]3.39 [2.52, 4.22]16% [0%, 41%]37%63%-0.30+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.87 [1.93, 3.69]1.51-2.87 [-3.69, -1.93]3.39 [2.35, 4.27]16% [0%, 50%]37%63%-0.30+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.87 [1.78, 3.86]1.51-2.87 [-3.86, -1.78]3.39 [2.06, 4.41]16% [0%, 50%]37%63%-0.30+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.87 [1.78, 3.80]1.51-2.87 [-3.80, -1.78]3.39 [2.05, 4.34]16% [0%, 50%]37%63%-0.30+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC2.30 [1.49, 3.11]1.53-2.28 [-3.10, -1.45]2.91 [2.05, 3.79]21% [4%, 55%]58%74%-0.04+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC2.30 [1.32, 3.12]1.53-2.28 [-3.12, -1.27]2.91 [1.92, 3.83]21% [0%, 67%]58%74%-0.04+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC2.30 [1.25, 3.28]1.53-2.28 [-3.28, -1.21]2.91 [1.66, 3.94]21% [0%, 76%]58%74%-0.04+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC2.30 [1.17, 3.20]1.53-2.28 [-3.20, -1.14]2.91 [1.64, 3.89]21% [0%, 76%]58%74%-0.04+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.74 [1.37, 3.85]2.46+1.76 [-1.01, 3.57]3.73 [1.52, 5.02]21% [5%, 40%]63%74%-0.68-0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.74 [1.19, 3.91]2.46+1.76 [-1.20, 3.68]3.73 [1.26, 5.06]21% [0%, 41%]63%74%-0.68-0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.74 [1.11, 3.90]2.46+1.76 [-1.22, 3.66]3.73 [1.11, 5.05]21% [0%, 43%]63%74%-0.68-0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.74 [1.11, 3.86]2.46+1.76 [-1.26, 3.65]3.73 [1.11, 5.01]21% [0%, 43%]63%74%-0.68-0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC2.94 [0.97, 4.34]2.51+2.42 [-0.37, 4.27]4.15 [1.20, 5.60]26% [8%, 62%]47%74%-0.80-0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC2.94 [0.66, 4.43]2.51+2.42 [-0.67, 4.36]4.15 [0.79, 5.67]26% [7%, 80%]47%74%-0.80-0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC2.94 [0.43, 4.40]2.51+2.42 [-0.66, 4.35]4.15 [0.43, 5.65]26% [5%, 100%]47%74%-0.80-0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC2.94 [0.43, 4.38]2.51+2.42 [-0.70, 4.34]4.15 [0.43, 5.64]26% [3%, 100%]47%74%-0.80-0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.51 [1.29, 3.38]2.44+1.32 [-1.10, 3.11]3.31 [1.60, 4.21]26% [12%, 50%]53%74%-0.54-0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.51 [0.79, 3.42]2.44+1.32 [-1.22, 3.16]3.31 [0.91, 4.24]26% [11%, 60%]53%74%-0.54-0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.51 [0.85, 3.42]2.44+1.32 [-1.34, 3.22]3.31 [0.92, 4.23]26% [11%, 50%]53%74%-0.54-0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.51 [0.89, 3.40]2.44+1.32 [-1.34, 3.32]3.31 [0.98, 4.18]26% [10%, 55%]53%74%-0.54-0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC2.73 [0.99, 3.92]2.49+1.97 [-0.52, 3.75]3.67 [1.32, 4.80]26% [4%, 71%]47%74%-0.68-0.562026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC2.73 [0.45, 3.98]2.49+1.97 [-0.65, 3.85]3.67 [0.56, 4.82]26% [0%, 100%]47%74%-0.68-0.562026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC2.73 [0.48, 3.98]2.49+1.97 [-0.71, 3.93]3.67 [0.57, 4.82]26% [0%, 100%]47%74%-0.68-0.562026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC2.73 [0.49, 4.01]2.49+1.97 [-0.79, 4.00]3.67 [0.63, 4.81]26% [0%, 100%]47%74%-0.68-0.562026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -0.76 °F2026-08-13: -6.19 °F2026-08-14: -1.68 °F2026-08-15: -6.77 °F2026-08-16: -2.69 °F2026-08-17: -2.45 °F2026-08-18: -5.25 °F2026-08-19: -2.91 °F2026-08-20: -3.3 °F2026-08-21: -2.55 °F2026-08-22: -5.63 °F2026-08-23: -1.8 °F2026-08-24: -2.33 °F2026-08-25: -1.57 °F2026-08-26: -2.16 °F2026-08-27: -1.68 °F2026-08-28: -0.53 °F2026-08-29: -4.27 °F2026-08-30: -1.21 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.21
2026-08-29-4.27
2026-08-28-0.53
2026-08-27-1.68
2026-08-26-2.16
2026-08-25-1.57
2026-08-24-2.33
2026-08-23-1.80
2026-08-22-5.63
2026-08-21-2.55
2026-08-20-3.30
2026-08-19-2.91
2026-08-18-5.25
2026-08-17-2.45
2026-08-16-2.69
2026-08-15-6.77
2026-08-14-1.68
2026-08-13-6.19
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-0.76

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.45 · P90 |e| 5.74 °F-100+10 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08192.93 -2.93

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 +0.40 [-1.14, 1.64] no
NCEP GFS 19 +1.36 [-0.34, 2.44] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -3.08 [-4.41, -1.35] yes
Persistence (baseline) 19 +0.72 [-1.25, 1.84] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence