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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 6

KSAT · aifs_single · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.65 [1.85, 3.36]1.32-2.65 [-3.36, -1.85]3.09 [2.21, 3.73]21% [8%, 41%]38%50%-0.30+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.65 [1.69, 3.57]1.32-2.65 [-3.57, -1.69]3.09 [2.12, 3.86]21% [5%, 46%]38%50%-0.30+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.65 [1.61, 3.54]1.32-2.65 [-3.54, -1.61]3.09 [2.01, 3.85]21% [0%, 50%]38%50%-0.30+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.65 [1.52, 3.59]1.32-2.65 [-3.59, -1.52]3.09 [1.93, 3.87]21% [4%, 50%]38%50%-0.30+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.26 [1.51, 2.95]1.32-2.22 [-2.93, -1.43]2.75 [1.90, 3.36]25% [9%, 44%]42%71%-0.11+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.26 [1.38, 3.15]1.32-2.22 [-3.15, -1.28]2.75 [1.81, 3.48]25% [5%, 50%]42%71%-0.11+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.26 [1.30, 3.13]1.32-2.22 [-3.13, -1.18]2.75 [1.73, 3.47]25% [0%, 50%]42%71%-0.11+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC2.26 [1.25, 3.17]1.32-2.22 [-3.17, -1.12]2.75 [1.66, 3.49]25% [5%, 50%]42%71%-0.11+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.13 [2.45, 3.68]1.06-3.12 [-3.68, -2.40]3.38 [2.80, 3.91]4% [0%, 16%]17%50%-0.53+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.13 [2.32, 3.77]1.06-3.12 [-3.77, -2.27]3.38 [2.69, 3.96]4% [0%, 19%]17%50%-0.53+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.13 [2.26, 3.87]1.06-3.12 [-3.87, -2.21]3.38 [2.66, 4.07]4% [0%, 20%]17%50%-0.53+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.13 [2.18, 3.92]1.06-3.12 [-3.92, -2.11]3.38 [2.64, 4.09]4% [0%, 23%]17%50%-0.53+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.75 [2.18, 3.28]1.05-2.70 [-3.27, -1.99]3.01 [2.45, 3.52]8% [0%, 29%]25%58%-0.35+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.75 [2.06, 3.36]1.05-2.70 [-3.36, -1.88]3.01 [2.36, 3.57]8% [0%, 34%]25%58%-0.35+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.75 [2.04, 3.46]1.05-2.70 [-3.46, -1.81]3.01 [2.33, 3.70]8% [0%, 36%]25%58%-0.35+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC2.75 [1.97, 3.46]1.05-2.70 [-3.46, -1.69]3.01 [2.34, 3.71]8% [0%, 40%]25%58%-0.35+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.54 [1.18, 2.12]1.41-0.40 [-1.36, 0.59]1.93 [1.37, 2.65]33% [21%, 43%]75%92%+0.00+0.112026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.54 [1.16, 2.33]1.41-0.40 [-1.41, 0.80]1.93 [1.34, 2.86]33% [20%, 43%]75%92%+0.00+0.112026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.54 [1.13, 2.25]1.41-0.40 [-1.43, 0.80]1.93 [1.30, 2.76]33% [20%, 43%]75%92%+0.00+0.112026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.54 [1.10, 2.28]1.41-0.40 [-1.43, 0.75]1.93 [1.22, 2.79]33% [20%, 43%]75%92%+0.00+0.112026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC1.47 [1.09, 2.12]1.42-0.17 [-1.13, 0.84]1.91 [1.28, 2.71]29% [15%, 40%]83%96%+0.05+0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC1.47 [1.07, 2.36]1.42-0.17 [-1.18, 1.05]1.91 [1.25, 2.92]29% [14%, 41%]83%96%+0.05+0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC1.47 [1.07, 2.30]1.42-0.17 [-1.20, 1.05]1.91 [1.24, 2.84]29% [14%, 43%]83%96%+0.05+0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC1.47 [1.07, 2.36]1.42-0.17 [-1.20, 1.00]1.91 [1.22, 2.85]29% [14%, 43%]83%96%+0.05+0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.64 [1.20, 2.04]1.36-0.90 [-1.85, 0.11]1.98 [1.53, 2.38]38% [18%, 54%]67%92%-0.07+0.142026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.64 [1.19, 2.06]1.36-0.90 [-1.87, 0.29]1.98 [1.47, 2.46]38% [13%, 56%]67%92%-0.07+0.142026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.64 [1.15, 2.06]1.36-0.90 [-1.90, 0.30]1.98 [1.42, 2.41]38% [15%, 57%]67%92%-0.07+0.142026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.64 [1.02, 2.08]1.36-0.90 [-1.93, 0.29]1.98 [1.27, 2.46]38% [12%, 57%]67%92%-0.07+0.142026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.58 [1.22, 1.96]1.37-0.67 [-1.63, 0.35]1.90 [1.45, 2.36]38% [22%, 53%]71%92%-0.02+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.58 [1.19, 2.02]1.37-0.67 [-1.65, 0.56]1.90 [1.39, 2.46]38% [20%, 55%]71%92%-0.02+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.58 [1.14, 1.98]1.37-0.67 [-1.68, 0.56]1.90 [1.33, 2.43]38% [20%, 57%]71%92%-0.02+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.58 [1.05, 2.04]1.37-0.67 [-1.71, 0.53]1.90 [1.21, 2.45]38% [20%, 57%]71%92%-0.02+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KSAT, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -3.16 °F2026-08-08: -6.23 °F2026-08-09: -3.49 °F2026-08-10: -3.29 °F2026-08-11: -0.54 °F2026-08-12: -1.78 °F2026-08-13: -3.5 °F2026-08-14: -1.33 °F2026-08-15: -3.22 °F2026-08-16: -0.35 °F2026-08-17: -2.73 °F2026-08-18: -1.64 °F2026-08-19: -2.07 °F2026-08-20: -3.37 °F2026-08-21: -3.56 °F2026-08-22: -5.4 °F2026-08-23: -5.43 °F2026-08-24: -3.26 °F2026-08-25: -2.46 °F2026-08-26: -0.88 °F2026-08-27: -3.58 °F2026-08-28: -1.46 °F2026-08-29: -0.63 °F2026-08-30: -0.1 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.10
2026-08-29-0.63
2026-08-28-1.46
2026-08-27-3.58
2026-08-26-0.88
2026-08-25-2.46
2026-08-24-3.26
2026-08-23-5.43
2026-08-22-5.40
2026-08-21-3.56
2026-08-20-3.37
2026-08-19-2.07
2026-08-18-1.64
2026-08-17-2.73
2026-08-16-0.35
2026-08-15-3.22
2026-08-14-1.33
2026-08-13-3.50
2026-08-12-1.78
2026-08-11-0.54
2026-08-10-3.29
2026-08-09-3.49
2026-08-08-6.23
2026-08-07-3.16

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KSAT, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 9 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.95 · P90 |e| 4.85 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.009
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.005
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08242.65 -2.65

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 24 +1.02 [-0.39, 2.16] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -2.76 [-4.11, -0.12] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 -0.40 [-1.64, 1.14] no
Persistence (baseline) 24 +0.60 [-0.96, 1.75] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT aifs_single lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence