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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Diego Lindbergh · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KSAN · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC5.56 [3.98, 6.91]2.06-5.56 [-6.91, -3.98]6.14 [4.34, 7.31]5% [0%, 17%]11%16%-0.73+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC5.56 [3.91, 6.99]2.06-5.56 [-6.99, -3.91]6.14 [4.22, 7.36]5% [0%, 18%]11%16%-0.73+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC5.56 [3.88, 7.15]2.06-5.56 [-7.15, -3.88]6.14 [4.21, 7.46]5% [0%, 17%]11%16%-0.73+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC5.56 [3.90, 7.29]2.06-5.56 [-7.29, -3.90]6.14 [4.21, 7.54]5% [0%, 17%]11%16%-0.73+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC9.30 [7.20, 10.87]2.18-9.30 [-10.87, -7.20]9.68 [7.38, 11.12]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.90+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC9.30 [6.96, 10.89]2.18-9.30 [-10.89, -6.96]9.68 [7.09, 11.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.90+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC9.30 [6.97, 11.07]2.18-9.30 [-11.07, -6.97]9.68 [7.08, 11.34]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.90+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC9.30 [6.88, 11.16]2.18-9.30 [-11.16, -6.88]9.68 [7.02, 11.36]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.90+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC5.54 [4.11, 6.85]2.10-5.46 [-6.79, -4.02]6.10 [4.29, 7.28]5% [0%, 17%]5%16%-0.73+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC5.54 [4.11, 6.88]2.10-5.46 [-6.85, -4.00]6.10 [4.25, 7.31]5% [0%, 18%]5%16%-0.73+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC5.54 [4.07, 6.97]2.10-5.46 [-6.97, -3.97]6.10 [4.20, 7.43]5% [0%, 17%]5%16%-0.73+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC5.54 [4.06, 7.20]2.10-5.46 [-7.20, -3.99]6.10 [4.21, 7.52]5% [0%, 17%]5%16%-0.73+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC9.21 [6.95, 10.91]2.38-9.21 [-10.91, -6.95]9.65 [7.12, 11.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.87+0.252026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC9.21 [6.86, 10.96]2.38-9.21 [-10.96, -6.86]9.65 [6.96, 11.27]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.87+0.252026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC9.21 [6.81, 11.10]2.38-9.21 [-11.10, -6.81]9.65 [6.89, 11.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.87+0.252026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC9.21 [6.78, 11.26]2.38-9.21 [-11.26, -6.78]9.65 [6.88, 11.53]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.87+0.252026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC1.15 [0.88, 1.42]1.01-0.79 [-1.27, -0.42]1.44 [1.16, 1.72]53% [37%, 70%]79%100%+0.38+0.422026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC1.15 [0.85, 1.44]1.01-0.79 [-1.31, -0.35]1.44 [1.15, 1.74]53% [35%, 75%]79%100%+0.38+0.422026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC1.15 [0.81, 1.46]1.01-0.79 [-1.32, -0.35]1.44 [1.07, 1.74]53% [36%, 75%]79%100%+0.38+0.422026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC1.15 [0.79, 1.48]1.01-0.79 [-1.38, -0.35]1.44 [1.06, 1.77]53% [33%, 75%]79%100%+0.38+0.422026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC1.14 [0.77, 1.45]0.95-0.81 [-1.43, -0.04]1.40 [1.01, 1.70]42% [29%, 60%]79%100%+0.38+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC1.14 [0.56, 1.51]0.95-0.81 [-1.51, -0.01]1.40 [0.81, 1.78]42% [27%, 67%]79%100%+0.38+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC1.14 [0.56, 1.51]0.95-0.81 [-1.51, 0.05]1.40 [0.78, 1.75]42% [26%, 67%]79%100%+0.38+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC1.14 [0.60, 1.51]0.95-0.81 [-1.51, 0.07]1.40 [0.86, 1.73]42% [26%, 67%]79%100%+0.38+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC1.44 [1.11, 1.73]1.33-0.76 [-1.16, -0.32]1.67 [1.41, 1.88]32% [14%, 50%]63%100%+0.22+0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC1.44 [1.02, 1.77]1.33-0.76 [-1.18, -0.19]1.67 [1.37, 1.91]32% [11%, 57%]63%100%+0.22+0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC1.44 [1.03, 1.85]1.33-0.76 [-1.20, -0.18]1.67 [1.33, 1.93]32% [7%, 58%]63%100%+0.22+0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC1.44 [1.00, 1.80]1.33-0.76 [-1.26, -0.18]1.67 [1.32, 1.91]32% [10%, 57%]63%100%+0.22+0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC1.42 [1.06, 1.71]1.39-0.59 [-1.25, -0.02]1.61 [1.23, 1.89]32% [19%, 50%]79%100%+0.23+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC1.42 [0.90, 1.75]1.39-0.59 [-1.40, -0.03]1.61 [1.13, 1.96]32% [18%, 60%]79%100%+0.23+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC1.42 [0.82, 1.78]1.39-0.59 [-1.39, 0.01]1.61 [1.08, 1.98]32% [14%, 56%]79%100%+0.23+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC1.42 [0.88, 1.77]1.39-0.59 [-1.41, 0.02]1.61 [1.10, 1.96]32% [15%, 56%]79%100%+0.23+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: -4.83 °F2026-08-13: -3.44 °F2026-08-14: -5.19 °F2026-08-15: -2.98 °F2026-08-16: -3.03 °F2026-08-17: -5.96 °F2026-08-18: -6.66 °F2026-08-19: -5.37 °F2026-08-20: -8.51 °F2026-08-21: -6.28 °F2026-08-22: -7.58 °F2026-08-23: -11.14 °F2026-08-24: -6.88 °F2026-08-25: -6.61 °F2026-08-26: -8.92 °F2026-08-27: -1.47 °F2026-08-28: -0.13 °F2026-08-29: -6.64 °F2026-08-30: -4 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.00
2026-08-29-6.64
2026-08-28-0.13
2026-08-27-1.47
2026-08-26-8.92
2026-08-25-6.61
2026-08-24-6.88
2026-08-23-11.14
2026-08-22-7.58
2026-08-21-6.28
2026-08-20-8.51
2026-08-19-5.37
2026-08-18-6.66
2026-08-17-5.96
2026-08-16-3.03
2026-08-15-2.98
2026-08-14-5.19
2026-08-13-3.44
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-4.83

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 6 days-6 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.96 · P90 |e| 8.6 °F-200+20 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.006
-6.00-4.005
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08195.56 -5.56

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 +2.35 [1.15, 3.44] yes
NCEP GFS 19 +2.10 [-0.27, 3.96] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -0.13 [-1.98, 1.11] no
Persistence (baseline) 19 +2.35 [1.11, 4.12] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAN ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAN (San Diego Lindbergh), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence