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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KOKC · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 2 QC2.85 [1.23, 3.55]2.79+0.32 [-0.67, 1.39]3.51 [1.93, 4.15]35% [19%, 80%]41%47%+0.49+0.502026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 2 QC2.85 [0.26, 3.57]2.79+0.32 [-0.70, 1.37]3.51 [0.42, 4.22]35% [18%, 100%]41%47%+0.49+0.502026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 2 QC2.85 [0.26, 3.69]2.79+0.32 [-0.80, 1.43]3.51 [0.41, 4.26]35% [14%, 100%]41%47%+0.49+0.502026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 2 QC2.85 [0.27, 3.55]2.79+0.32 [-0.71, 1.46]3.51 [0.43, 4.20]35% [14%, 100%]41%47%+0.49+0.502026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 2 QC2.97 [1.28, 3.69]2.81+0.69 [-0.30, 1.74]3.56 [1.87, 4.19]24% [6%, 62%]35%53%+0.46+0.492026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 2 QC2.97 [0.54, 3.70]2.81+0.69 [-0.37, 1.75]3.56 [0.56, 4.24]24% [5%, 100%]35%53%+0.46+0.492026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 2 QC2.97 [0.49, 3.84]2.81+0.69 [-0.44, 1.79]3.56 [0.51, 4.28]24% [0%, 100%]35%53%+0.46+0.492026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 2 QC2.97 [0.54, 3.71]2.81+0.69 [-0.34, 1.82]3.56 [0.57, 4.22]24% [0%, 100%]35%53%+0.46+0.492026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC3.12 [1.68, 4.45]2.73-1.30 [-2.63, -0.07]3.63 [2.18, 4.99]12% [0%, 38%]29%47%+0.44+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC3.12 [1.17, 4.42]2.73-1.30 [-2.61, 0.12]3.63 [1.46, 4.96]12% [0%, 53%]29%47%+0.44+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC3.12 [0.86, 4.58]2.73-1.30 [-2.54, 0.12]3.63 [1.13, 5.10]12% [0%, 50%]29%47%+0.44+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 2 QC3.12 [1.21, 4.74]2.73-1.30 [-2.69, 0.12]3.63 [1.44, 5.15]12% [0%, 50%]29%47%+0.44+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 2 QC3.22 [1.79, 4.64]2.96-1.04 [-2.41, 0.32]3.80 [2.20, 5.22]24% [5%, 56%]29%41%+0.42+0.472026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 2 QC3.22 [1.32, 4.63]2.96-1.04 [-2.48, 0.77]3.80 [1.45, 5.20]24% [5%, 75%]29%41%+0.42+0.472026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 2 QC3.22 [0.97, 4.79]2.96-1.04 [-2.32, 0.97]3.80 [0.97, 5.32]24% [0%, 100%]29%41%+0.42+0.472026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 2 QC3.22 [1.24, 4.93]2.96-1.04 [-2.48, 0.79]3.80 [1.38, 5.39]24% [0%, 75%]29%41%+0.42+0.472026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 2 QC8.31 [7.17, 10.67]2.96+8.31 [7.17, 10.67]9.05 [7.60, 11.29]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.08+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 2 QC8.31 [7.11, 12.29]2.96+8.31 [7.11, 12.29]9.05 [7.60, 12.52]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.08+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 2 QC8.31 [6.99, 12.63]2.96+8.31 [6.99, 12.63]9.05 [7.48, 12.74]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.08+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 2 QC8.31 [7.08, 12.21]2.96+8.31 [7.08, 12.21]9.05 [7.59, 12.31]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.08+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 2 QC9.19 [8.00, 11.63]3.10+9.19 [8.00, 11.63]9.94 [8.50, 12.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.30+0.222026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 2 QC9.19 [7.95, 13.41]3.10+9.19 [7.95, 13.41]9.94 [8.46, 13.61]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.30+0.222026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 2 QC9.19 [7.84, 13.75]3.10+9.19 [7.84, 13.75]9.94 [8.32, 13.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.30+0.222026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 2 QC9.19 [7.92, 13.27]3.10+9.19 [7.92, 13.27]9.94 [8.45, 13.44]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.30+0.222026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC7.01 [5.96, 9.23]3.43+6.78 [5.64, 9.17]7.93 [6.88, 10.09]6% [0%, 20%]18%24%-0.75+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC7.01 [5.87, 11.97]3.43+6.78 [5.48, 11.97]7.93 [6.81, 12.10]6% [0%, 20%]18%24%-0.75+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC7.01 [5.89, 11.83]3.43+6.78 [5.51, 11.83]7.93 [6.81, 11.94]6% [0%, 22%]18%24%-0.75+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 2 QC7.01 [5.86, 11.80]3.43+6.78 [5.54, 11.80]7.93 [6.80, 11.87]6% [0%, 24%]18%24%-0.75+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 2 QC7.84 [6.62, 10.17]3.77+7.65 [6.41, 10.11]8.87 [7.78, 11.08]0% [0%, 0%]18%24%-0.96+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 2 QC7.84 [6.48, 13.07]3.77+7.65 [6.21, 13.07]8.87 [7.66, 13.24]0% [0%, 0%]18%24%-0.96+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 2 QC7.84 [6.60, 12.95]3.77+7.65 [6.29, 12.95]8.87 [7.66, 13.09]0% [0%, 0%]18%24%-0.96+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 2 QC7.84 [6.49, 12.88]3.77+7.65 [6.28, 12.88]8.87 [7.67, 12.97]0% [0%, 0%]18%24%-0.96+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: +0.01 °F2026-08-15: +0.74 °F2026-08-16: -0.63 °F2026-08-17: +4.9 °F2026-08-18: -6.39 °F2026-08-19: +1.73 °F2026-08-20: -6.65 °F2026-08-21: +3.95 °F2026-08-22: +3.59 °F2026-08-23: +0.68 °F2026-08-24: -3.1 °F2026-08-25: +2.74 °F2026-08-26: +4.67 °F2026-08-27: +3.37 °F2026-08-28: -4.03 °F2026-08-29: -0.72 °F2026-08-30: +0.52 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.52
2026-08-29-0.72
2026-08-28-4.03
2026-08-27+3.37
2026-08-26+4.67
2026-08-25+2.74
2026-08-24-3.10
2026-08-23+0.68
2026-08-22+3.59
2026-08-21+3.95
2026-08-20-6.65
2026-08-19+1.73
2026-08-18-6.39
2026-08-17+4.90
2026-08-16-0.63
2026-08-15+0.74
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09+0.01

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 4 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 3 days4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.1 · P90 |e| 5.49 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.004
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.003
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08172.85 +0.32

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 -4.06 [-9.20, -2.86] yes
NCEP GFS 17 -0.91 [-2.31, 0.43] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -7.67 [-11.45, -5.73] yes
Persistence (baseline) 17 -2.68 [-7.40, -0.67] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence