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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 8

KOKC · aifs_single · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC6.86 [5.85, 8.15]4.63-5.49 [-7.96, -2.65]8.31 [6.79, 9.89]9% [0%, 17%]18%18%-0.30+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC6.86 [5.74, 8.53]4.63-5.49 [-8.31, -2.45]8.31 [6.67, 10.08]9% [0%, 18%]18%18%-0.30+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC6.86 [5.73, 8.35]4.63-5.49 [-8.26, -2.14]8.31 [6.58, 10.11]9% [0%, 18%]18%18%-0.30+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC6.86 [5.61, 8.40]4.63-5.49 [-8.15, -2.24]8.31 [6.50, 9.96]9% [0%, 19%]18%18%-0.30+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC6.98 [5.96, 8.17]4.68-5.55 [-8.02, -2.65]8.43 [6.88, 10.04]9% [0%, 17%]18%18%-0.32+0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC6.98 [5.86, 8.55]4.68-5.55 [-8.31, -2.41]8.43 [6.75, 10.24]9% [0%, 18%]18%18%-0.32+0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC6.98 [5.89, 8.36]4.68-5.55 [-8.27, -2.10]8.43 [6.71, 10.29]9% [0%, 18%]18%18%-0.32+0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC6.98 [5.70, 8.39]4.68-5.55 [-8.19, -2.25]8.43 [6.61, 10.08]9% [0%, 19%]18%18%-0.32+0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC6.07 [5.45, 6.87]3.58-5.08 [-6.47, -3.83]6.81 [6.12, 7.55]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.15+0.302026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC6.07 [5.43, 7.12]3.58-5.08 [-6.81, -3.82]6.81 [6.13, 7.65]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.15+0.302026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC6.07 [5.39, 6.98]3.58-5.08 [-6.65, -3.54]6.81 [5.99, 7.60]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.15+0.302026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC6.07 [5.39, 7.10]3.58-5.08 [-6.84, -3.68]6.81 [6.01, 7.63]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.15+0.302026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC6.15 [5.53, 6.96]3.61-5.15 [-6.47, -3.95]6.90 [6.23, 7.59]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.17+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC6.15 [5.47, 7.15]3.61-5.15 [-6.79, -3.98]6.90 [6.22, 7.69]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.17+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC6.15 [5.46, 7.06]3.61-5.15 [-6.66, -3.70]6.90 [6.12, 7.57]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.17+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC6.15 [5.45, 7.07]3.61-5.15 [-6.82, -3.80]6.90 [6.16, 7.58]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.17+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.31 [2.50, 3.90]2.23+2.44 [1.37, 3.32]4.00 [2.89, 4.66]5% [0%, 16%]32%55%+0.33+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.31 [2.25, 3.91]2.23+2.44 [1.26, 3.35]4.00 [2.57, 4.65]5% [0%, 20%]32%55%+0.33+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.31 [2.17, 3.98]2.23+2.44 [1.31, 3.43]4.00 [2.42, 4.71]5% [0%, 18%]32%55%+0.33+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.31 [2.30, 3.94]2.23+2.44 [1.20, 3.37]4.00 [2.57, 4.65]5% [0%, 18%]32%55%+0.33+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC3.38 [2.53, 3.99]2.21+2.51 [1.46, 3.40]4.06 [2.92, 4.75]5% [0%, 16%]32%55%+0.32+0.552026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC3.38 [2.26, 3.99]2.21+2.51 [1.34, 3.41]4.06 [2.59, 4.74]5% [0%, 20%]32%55%+0.32+0.552026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC3.38 [2.24, 4.06]2.21+2.51 [1.35, 3.53]4.06 [2.40, 4.77]5% [0%, 18%]32%55%+0.32+0.552026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC3.38 [2.32, 4.00]2.21+2.51 [1.31, 3.46]4.06 [2.59, 4.72]5% [0%, 18%]32%55%+0.32+0.552026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC2.78 [2.30, 3.30]2.24+2.40 [1.72, 3.05]3.68 [2.89, 4.32]32% [20%, 41%]45%64%+0.44+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC2.78 [2.29, 3.23]2.24+2.40 [1.68, 2.99]3.68 [2.77, 4.24]32% [22%, 42%]45%64%+0.44+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC2.78 [2.29, 3.36]2.24+2.40 [1.62, 3.09]3.68 [2.77, 4.38]32% [20%, 43%]45%64%+0.44+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC2.78 [2.29, 3.32]2.24+2.40 [1.57, 3.05]3.68 [2.79, 4.31]32% [18%, 42%]45%64%+0.44+0.542026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC2.93 [2.41, 3.49]2.33+2.46 [1.73, 3.17]3.81 [2.93, 4.50]23% [8%, 36%]41%64%+0.41+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC2.93 [2.36, 3.41]2.33+2.46 [1.68, 3.12]3.81 [2.82, 4.44]23% [0%, 37%]41%64%+0.41+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC2.93 [2.38, 3.53]2.33+2.46 [1.62, 3.23]3.81 [2.85, 4.55]23% [0%, 36%]41%64%+0.41+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC2.93 [2.36, 3.49]2.33+2.46 [1.58, 3.18]3.81 [2.80, 4.49]23% [0%, 36%]41%64%+0.41+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+25+12.50-12.5-252026-08-09: -10.86 °F2026-08-10: -11.02 °F2026-08-11: -5.11 °F2026-08-12: -9.31 °F2026-08-13: -4.21 °F2026-08-14: -3.85 °F2026-08-15: -7.57 °F2026-08-16: -4.99 °F2026-08-17: -1.69 °F2026-08-18: -14.32 °F2026-08-19: +0.63 °F2026-08-20: -20.57 °F2026-08-21: -1.2 °F2026-08-22: -3.51 °F2026-08-23: -8.35 °F2026-08-24: -6.7 °F2026-08-25: +0.62 °F2026-08-26: +10.64 °F2026-08-27: +3.22 °F2026-08-28: -7.71 °F2026-08-29: -6.99 °F2026-08-30: -7.85 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-7.85
2026-08-29-6.99
2026-08-28-7.71
2026-08-27+3.22
2026-08-26+10.64
2026-08-25+0.62
2026-08-24-6.70
2026-08-23-8.35
2026-08-22-3.51
2026-08-21-1.20
2026-08-20-20.57
2026-08-19+0.63
2026-08-18-14.32
2026-08-17-1.69
2026-08-16-4.99
2026-08-15-7.57
2026-08-14-3.85
2026-08-13-4.21
2026-08-12-9.31
2026-08-11-5.11
2026-08-10-11.02
2026-08-09-10.86

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 8-25 to -22.5 °F: 0 days-22.5 to -20 °F: 1 day-20 to -17.5 °F: 0 days-17.5 to -15 °F: 0 days-15 to -12.5 °F: 1 day-12.5 to -10 °F: 2 days-10 to -7.5 °F: 5 days-7.5 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -2.5 °F: 4 days-2.5 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2.5 °F: 2 days2.5 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 7.5 °F: 0 days7.5 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12.5 °F: 1 day12.5 to 15 °F: 0 days15 to 17.5 °F: 0 days17.5 to 20 °F: 0 days20 to 22.5 °F: 0 days22.5 to 25 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 6.84 · P90 |e| 11.01 °F-250+25 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-25.00-22.500
-22.50-20.001
-20.00-17.500
-17.50-15.000
-15.00-12.501
-12.50-10.002
-10.00-7.505
-7.50-5.003
-5.00-2.504
-2.50+0.002
+0.00+2.502
+2.50+5.001
+5.00+7.500
+7.50+10.000
+10.00+12.501
+12.50+15.000
+15.00+17.500
+17.50+20.000
+20.00+22.500
+22.50+25.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08226.86 -5.49

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 22 +2.77 [1.10, 5.42] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -3.86 [-5.90, -1.86] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 17 +4.06 [2.86, 9.20] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.59 [-0.63, 3.24] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC aifs_single lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model aifs_single, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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