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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Los Angeles Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KLAX · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 2 QC2.43 [1.67, 2.97]1.56-1.80 [-2.66, -0.74]2.92 [2.09, 3.44]16% [0%, 32%]53%74%+0.32+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 2 QC2.43 [1.25, 2.95]1.56-1.80 [-2.68, -0.52]2.92 [1.40, 3.42]16% [0%, 33%]53%74%+0.32+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 2 QC2.43 [1.17, 3.07]1.56-1.80 [-2.74, -0.55]2.92 [1.32, 3.49]16% [0%, 34%]53%74%+0.32+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 2 QC2.43 [1.22, 2.97]1.56-1.80 [-2.72, -0.55]2.92 [1.35, 3.43]16% [0%, 33%]53%74%+0.32+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 2 QC5.23 [4.12, 6.07]1.72-5.19 [-6.06, -4.12]5.71 [4.38, 6.51]5% [0%, 17%]11%16%-0.46+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 2 QC5.23 [3.92, 6.12]1.72-5.19 [-6.12, -3.88]5.71 [4.18, 6.52]5% [0%, 18%]11%16%-0.46+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 2 QC5.23 [3.91, 6.17]1.72-5.19 [-6.17, -3.84]5.71 [4.20, 6.57]5% [0%, 17%]11%16%-0.46+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 2 QC5.23 [3.91, 6.13]1.72-5.19 [-6.13, -3.85]5.71 [4.16, 6.53]5% [0%, 17%]11%16%-0.46+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 2 QC2.42 [1.47, 2.98]1.93-1.47 [-2.17, -0.75]2.86 [1.76, 3.35]26% [13%, 50%]42%68%+0.32+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 2 QC2.42 [1.04, 2.98]1.93-1.47 [-2.15, -0.51]2.86 [1.33, 3.36]26% [11%, 62%]42%68%+0.32+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 2 QC2.42 [0.92, 3.01]1.93-1.47 [-2.28, -0.51]2.86 [1.23, 3.39]26% [11%, 75%]42%68%+0.32+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 2 QC2.42 [1.09, 3.00]1.93-1.47 [-2.27, -0.51]2.86 [1.33, 3.38]26% [12%, 58%]42%68%+0.32+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 2 QC4.85 [3.60, 5.90]2.40-4.75 [-5.76, -3.54]5.53 [3.91, 6.45]16% [6%, 25%]16%32%-0.35+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 2 QC4.85 [3.50, 5.93]2.40-4.75 [-5.75, -3.43]5.53 [3.64, 6.48]16% [0%, 25%]16%32%-0.35+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 2 QC4.85 [3.42, 5.97]2.40-4.75 [-5.89, -3.41]5.53 [3.65, 6.49]16% [0%, 25%]16%32%-0.35+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 2 QC4.85 [3.38, 5.97]2.40-4.75 [-5.90, -3.36]5.53 [3.60, 6.54]16% [0%, 25%]16%32%-0.35+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 2 QC1.49 [0.87, 2.20]1.12+1.34 [0.69, 2.10]1.96 [1.11, 2.83]42% [29%, 64%]74%89%+0.34+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 2 QC1.49 [0.71, 2.32]1.12+1.34 [0.59, 2.23]1.96 [0.92, 2.96]42% [29%, 80%]74%89%+0.34+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 2 QC1.49 [0.29, 2.36]1.12+1.34 [0.29, 2.26]1.96 [0.29, 2.94]42% [29%, 100%]74%89%+0.34+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 2 QC1.49 [0.29, 2.29]1.12+1.34 [0.29, 2.23]1.96 [0.29, 2.94]42% [29%, 100%]74%89%+0.34+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 2 QC1.40 [0.76, 2.41]1.42+0.75 [-0.06, 1.62]1.93 [0.92, 2.94]47% [21%, 71%]74%89%+0.38+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 2 QC1.40 [0.67, 2.65]1.42+0.75 [-0.25, 1.79]1.93 [0.70, 3.15]47% [15%, 80%]74%89%+0.38+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 2 QC1.40 [0.58, 2.64]1.42+0.75 [-0.56, 1.81]1.93 [0.66, 3.11]47% [14%, 81%]74%89%+0.38+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 2 QC1.40 [0.58, 2.58]1.42+0.75 [-0.56, 1.76]1.93 [0.65, 3.05]47% [16%, 83%]74%89%+0.38+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 2 QC1.34 [0.93, 1.72]0.98+1.19 [0.83, 1.48]1.81 [1.14, 2.44]42% [25%, 62%]89%95%+0.41+0.512026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 2 QC1.34 [0.87, 1.76]0.98+1.19 [0.79, 1.49]1.81 [1.11, 2.53]42% [20%, 67%]89%95%+0.41+0.512026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 2 QC1.34 [0.84, 1.73]0.98+1.19 [0.76, 1.50]1.81 [1.06, 2.45]42% [14%, 67%]89%95%+0.41+0.512026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 2 QC1.34 [0.83, 1.72]0.98+1.19 [0.77, 1.48]1.81 [1.05, 2.42]42% [14%, 67%]89%95%+0.41+0.512026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 2 QC1.35 [0.61, 2.05]1.30+0.65 [-0.04, 1.07]1.98 [0.73, 3.00]42% [14%, 87%]89%95%+0.41+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 2 QC1.35 [0.42, 2.21]1.30+0.65 [-0.19, 1.07]1.98 [0.46, 3.17]42% [10%, 100%]89%95%+0.41+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 2 QC1.35 [0.42, 2.13]1.30+0.65 [-0.26, 1.08]1.98 [0.47, 3.05]42% [10%, 100%]89%95%+0.41+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 2 QC1.35 [0.42, 2.11]1.30+0.65 [-0.19, 1.06]1.98 [0.47, 3.00]42% [12%, 100%]89%95%+0.41+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -1.11 °F2026-08-13: -0.43 °F2026-08-14: -2.39 °F2026-08-15: -1.31 °F2026-08-16: -0.99 °F2026-08-17: -1.7 °F2026-08-18: -6.54 °F2026-08-19: -3.57 °F2026-08-20: +0.68 °F2026-08-21: -2.9 °F2026-08-22: -2.73 °F2026-08-23: -4.29 °F2026-08-24: -3.65 °F2026-08-25: -1.11 °F2026-08-26: -1.51 °F2026-08-27: -1.08 °F2026-08-28: +5.32 °F2026-08-29: -1.98 °F2026-08-30: -2.96 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.96
2026-08-29-1.98
2026-08-28+5.32
2026-08-27-1.08
2026-08-26-1.51
2026-08-25-1.11
2026-08-24-3.65
2026-08-23-4.29
2026-08-22-2.73
2026-08-21-2.90
2026-08-20+0.68
2026-08-19-3.57
2026-08-18-6.54
2026-08-17-1.70
2026-08-16-0.99
2026-08-15-1.31
2026-08-14-2.39
2026-08-13-0.43
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-1.11

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 7 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.98 · P90 |e| 4.5 °F-100+10 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.007
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08192.43 -1.80

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 -0.02 [-0.66, 1.00] no
NCEP GFS 19 +0.30 [-0.87, 1.17] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -2.20 [-3.22, -1.35] yes
Persistence (baseline) 19 -1.14 [-2.20, 1.09] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAX ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAX (Los Angeles Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence