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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Los Angeles Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 6

KLAX · aifs_single · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 2 QC2.15 [1.28, 2.94]2.15+0.13 [-1.77, 1.72]2.84 [1.83, 3.51]38% [15%, 58%]50%71%+0.30+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 2 QC2.15 [1.00, 2.98]2.15+0.13 [-2.05, 1.76]2.84 [1.30, 3.53]38% [11%, 64%]50%71%+0.30+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 2 QC2.15 [1.00, 3.01]2.15+0.13 [-2.37, 1.93]2.84 [1.31, 3.54]38% [8%, 64%]50%71%+0.30+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 2 QC2.15 [1.04, 2.98]2.15+0.13 [-2.31, 1.72]2.84 [1.34, 3.53]38% [10%, 64%]50%71%+0.30+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 2 QC2.23 [1.30, 3.15]2.18-0.40 [-2.34, 1.19]2.88 [1.74, 3.81]29% [8%, 50%]62%71%+0.28+0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 2 QC2.23 [1.05, 3.23]2.18-0.40 [-2.61, 1.21]2.88 [1.21, 3.84]29% [2%, 57%]62%71%+0.28+0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 2 QC2.23 [1.01, 3.33]2.18-0.40 [-2.99, 1.38]2.88 [1.20, 3.94]29% [0%, 58%]62%71%+0.28+0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 2 QC2.23 [1.05, 3.21]2.18-0.40 [-2.91, 1.20]2.88 [1.20, 3.87]29% [0%, 57%]62%71%+0.28+0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC1.76 [0.97, 2.54]1.80+0.23 [-0.93, 1.51]2.34 [1.30, 3.15]46% [21%, 70%]67%83%+0.43+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC1.76 [0.77, 2.53]1.80+0.23 [-1.10, 1.57]2.34 [0.92, 3.16]46% [17%, 75%]67%83%+0.43+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC1.76 [0.74, 2.65]1.80+0.23 [-1.18, 1.66]2.34 [0.87, 3.28]46% [15%, 78%]67%83%+0.43+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 2 QC1.76 [0.79, 2.51]1.80+0.23 [-1.23, 1.46]2.34 [0.95, 3.13]46% [17%, 78%]67%83%+0.43+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 2 QC1.84 [1.12, 2.45]1.77-0.26 [-1.39, 0.99]2.30 [1.41, 2.96]25% [10%, 47%]62%83%+0.40+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 2 QC1.84 [0.95, 2.48]1.77-0.26 [-1.57, 1.05]2.30 [1.12, 2.97]25% [8%, 50%]62%83%+0.40+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 2 QC1.84 [0.94, 2.56]1.77-0.26 [-1.66, 1.12]2.30 [1.14, 3.06]25% [8%, 53%]62%83%+0.40+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 2 QC1.84 [0.96, 2.48]1.77-0.26 [-1.72, 0.93]2.30 [1.13, 2.99]25% [8%, 50%]62%83%+0.40+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 2 QC0.79 [0.50, 1.06]0.79-0.01 [-0.43, 0.34]0.94 [0.60, 1.20]79% [57%, 100%]96%100%+0.62+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 2 QC0.79 [0.41, 1.08]0.79-0.01 [-0.48, 0.39]0.94 [0.46, 1.22]79% [56%, 100%]96%100%+0.62+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 2 QC0.79 [0.42, 1.13]0.79-0.01 [-0.48, 0.43]0.94 [0.49, 1.24]79% [55%, 100%]96%100%+0.62+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 2 QC0.79 [0.42, 1.13]0.79-0.01 [-0.51, 0.36]0.94 [0.46, 1.26]79% [55%, 100%]96%100%+0.62+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 2 QC0.77 [0.47, 1.06]0.77+0.02 [-0.36, 0.37]0.95 [0.58, 1.23]71% [46%, 94%]100%100%+0.63+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 2 QC0.77 [0.41, 1.09]0.77+0.02 [-0.42, 0.41]0.95 [0.43, 1.24]71% [44%, 100%]100%100%+0.63+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 2 QC0.77 [0.41, 1.12]0.77+0.02 [-0.41, 0.44]0.95 [0.44, 1.27]71% [43%, 100%]100%100%+0.63+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 2 QC0.77 [0.42, 1.11]0.77+0.02 [-0.42, 0.36]0.95 [0.43, 1.26]71% [43%, 100%]100%100%+0.63+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC0.73 [0.59, 0.87]0.62-0.43 [-0.72, -0.13]0.91 [0.72, 1.07]71% [54%, 88%]100%100%+0.65+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC0.73 [0.59, 0.88]0.62-0.43 [-0.75, -0.12]0.91 [0.70, 1.08]71% [52%, 89%]100%100%+0.65+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC0.73 [0.57, 0.89]0.62-0.43 [-0.73, -0.07]0.91 [0.67, 1.10]71% [50%, 91%]100%100%+0.65+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 2 QC0.73 [0.59, 0.90]0.62-0.43 [-0.75, -0.12]0.91 [0.69, 1.10]71% [50%, 90%]100%100%+0.65+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 2 QC0.74 [0.60, 0.89]0.65-0.40 [-0.70, -0.07]0.93 [0.73, 1.11]71% [58%, 84%]96%100%+0.64+0.642026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 2 QC0.74 [0.59, 0.90]0.65-0.40 [-0.75, -0.03]0.93 [0.70, 1.13]71% [57%, 86%]96%100%+0.64+0.642026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 2 QC0.74 [0.58, 0.90]0.65-0.40 [-0.74, 0.04]0.93 [0.69, 1.16]71% [56%, 87%]96%100%+0.64+0.642026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 2 QC0.74 [0.59, 0.91]0.65-0.40 [-0.75, -0.01]0.93 [0.71, 1.14]71% [56%, 86%]96%100%+0.64+0.642026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KLAX, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -0.22 °F2026-08-08: +2.03 °F2026-08-09: +0.67 °F2026-08-10: +1.94 °F2026-08-11: -0.14 °F2026-08-12: +0.11 °F2026-08-13: +0.29 °F2026-08-14: -0.59 °F2026-08-15: +2.79 °F2026-08-16: +5.26 °F2026-08-17: +4.21 °F2026-08-18: -1.16 °F2026-08-19: +2.49 °F2026-08-20: +5.19 °F2026-08-21: +0.34 °F2026-08-22: -0.11 °F2026-08-23: -3.36 °F2026-08-24: -0.8 °F2026-08-25: -3.47 °F2026-08-26: -5.13 °F2026-08-27: -6.06 °F2026-08-28: +2.04 °F2026-08-29: -1.14 °F2026-08-30: -2.06 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.06
2026-08-29-1.14
2026-08-28+2.04
2026-08-27-6.06
2026-08-26-5.13
2026-08-25-3.47
2026-08-24-0.80
2026-08-23-3.36
2026-08-22-0.11
2026-08-21+0.34
2026-08-20+5.19
2026-08-19+2.49
2026-08-18-1.16
2026-08-17+4.21
2026-08-16+5.26
2026-08-15+2.79
2026-08-14-0.59
2026-08-13+0.29
2026-08-12+0.11
2026-08-11-0.14
2026-08-10+1.94
2026-08-09+0.67
2026-08-08+2.03
2026-08-07-0.22

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KLAX, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 1 °F: 4 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 4 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.99 · P90 |e| 5.17 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.005
+0.00+1.004
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.004
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.002
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08242.15 +0.13

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 24 +0.29 [-0.30, 0.89] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -2.00 [-3.05, -1.10] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 +0.02 [-1.00, 0.66] no
Persistence (baseline) 24 -0.93 [-1.91, 0.14] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAX aifs_single lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAX (Los Angeles Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence