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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KSAT · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.13 [2.19, 4.08]1.53-3.08 [-4.04, -2.06]3.63 [2.52, 4.60]9% [0%, 33%]32%59%-1.09+0.022026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.13 [2.01, 4.10]1.53-3.08 [-4.06, -1.79]3.63 [2.22, 4.62]9% [0%, 46%]32%59%-1.09+0.022026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.13 [1.99, 4.22]1.53-3.08 [-4.21, -1.78]3.63 [2.19, 4.75]9% [0%, 40%]32%59%-1.09+0.022026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.13 [1.85, 4.14]1.53-3.08 [-4.11, -1.66]3.63 [2.10, 4.67]9% [0%, 43%]32%59%-1.09+0.022026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.55 [1.67, 3.53]1.65-2.41 [-3.43, -1.31]3.17 [1.99, 4.13]14% [4%, 28%]55%68%-0.70-0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.55 [1.49, 3.56]1.65-2.41 [-3.43, -1.02]3.17 [1.66, 4.15]14% [4%, 33%]55%68%-0.70-0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.55 [1.51, 3.68]1.65-2.41 [-3.59, -1.04]3.17 [1.62, 4.28]14% [0%, 33%]55%68%-0.70-0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC2.55 [1.44, 3.58]1.65-2.41 [-3.46, -0.85]3.17 [1.48, 4.18]14% [0%, 33%]55%68%-0.70-0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.36 [2.52, 4.43]1.20-3.36 [-4.43, -2.52]3.68 [2.65, 4.76]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-1.31+0.192026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.36 [2.40, 4.58]1.20-3.36 [-4.58, -2.40]3.68 [2.54, 4.85]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-1.31+0.192026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.36 [2.38, 4.71]1.20-3.36 [-4.71, -2.38]3.68 [2.53, 4.97]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-1.31+0.192026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.36 [2.20, 4.65]1.20-3.36 [-4.65, -2.20]3.68 [2.40, 4.87]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-1.31+0.192026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.64 [1.73, 3.73]1.27-2.63 [-3.73, -1.72]3.08 [1.96, 4.14]9% [0%, 27%]41%64%-0.81+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.64 [1.59, 3.86]1.27-2.63 [-3.85, -1.56]3.08 [1.86, 4.30]9% [0%, 33%]41%64%-0.81+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.64 [1.64, 3.99]1.27-2.63 [-3.99, -1.62]3.08 [1.85, 4.37]9% [0%, 33%]41%64%-0.81+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC2.64 [1.40, 3.93]1.27-2.63 [-3.92, -1.38]3.08 [1.67, 4.31]9% [0%, 33%]41%64%-0.81+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.12 [1.30, 2.85]1.88+1.17 [-0.34, 2.42]2.53 [1.48, 3.19]18% [7%, 29%]50%77%-0.16-0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.12 [1.31, 3.04]1.88+1.17 [-0.51, 2.62]2.53 [1.46, 3.32]18% [0%, 29%]50%77%-0.16-0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.12 [1.24, 2.96]1.88+1.17 [-0.62, 2.56]2.53 [1.41, 3.31]18% [0%, 30%]50%77%-0.16-0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.12 [1.20, 3.06]1.88+1.17 [-0.55, 2.68]2.53 [1.33, 3.32]18% [0%, 29%]50%77%-0.16-0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.43 [1.20, 3.46]1.94+1.89 [0.29, 3.20]2.99 [1.54, 3.82]23% [0%, 50%]55%59%-0.34-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.43 [1.11, 3.65]1.94+1.89 [0.12, 3.41]2.99 [1.47, 3.99]23% [0%, 50%]55%59%-0.34-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.43 [1.03, 3.61]1.94+1.89 [0.02, 3.36]2.99 [1.32, 3.95]23% [0%, 54%]55%59%-0.34-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC2.43 [1.01, 3.65]1.94+1.89 [0.07, 3.46]2.99 [1.26, 3.98]23% [0%, 52%]55%59%-0.34-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.32 [1.70, 3.01]2.19+0.89 [-0.92, 2.43]2.76 [1.82, 3.58]14% [0%, 24%]59%82%-0.28-0.192026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.32 [1.71, 3.27]2.19+0.89 [-1.11, 2.69]2.76 [1.82, 3.74]14% [0%, 24%]59%82%-0.28-0.192026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.32 [1.67, 3.20]2.19+0.89 [-1.22, 2.68]2.76 [1.75, 3.66]14% [0%, 25%]59%82%-0.28-0.192026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.32 [1.66, 3.27]2.19+0.89 [-1.23, 2.74]2.76 [1.69, 3.66]14% [0%, 24%]59%82%-0.28-0.192026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.55 [1.43, 3.58]2.27+1.60 [-0.26, 3.19]3.19 [1.72, 4.23]14% [0%, 29%]50%73%-0.40-0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.55 [1.44, 3.85]2.27+1.60 [-0.50, 3.50]3.19 [1.67, 4.48]14% [0%, 29%]50%73%-0.40-0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.55 [1.30, 3.79]2.27+1.60 [-0.63, 3.47]3.19 [1.43, 4.41]14% [0%, 33%]50%73%-0.40-0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.55 [1.29, 3.80]2.27+1.60 [-0.62, 3.57]3.19 [1.40, 4.47]14% [0%, 33%]50%73%-0.40-0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: +0.49 °F2026-08-08: -0.75 °F2026-08-09: -5.66 °F2026-08-11: -4.04 °F2026-08-13: -7.48 °F2026-08-14: -5.08 °F2026-08-15: -5.5 °F2026-08-16: -1.42 °F2026-08-17: -2.87 °F2026-08-18: -3.32 °F2026-08-19: -1.77 °F2026-08-20: -1.85 °F2026-08-21: -2.39 °F2026-08-22: -2.12 °F2026-08-23: -2.41 °F2026-08-24: -2.11 °F2026-08-25: -1.96 °F2026-08-26: -3.07 °F2026-08-27: -3.9 °F2026-08-28: -6.54 °F2026-08-29: -2.89 °F2026-08-30: -1.19 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.19
2026-08-29-2.89
2026-08-28-6.54
2026-08-27-3.90
2026-08-26-3.07
2026-08-25-1.96
2026-08-24-2.11
2026-08-23-2.41
2026-08-22-2.12
2026-08-21-2.39
2026-08-20-1.85
2026-08-19-1.77
2026-08-18-3.32
2026-08-17-2.87
2026-08-16-1.42
2026-08-15-5.50
2026-08-14-5.08
2026-08-13-7.48
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-4.04
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-5.66
2026-08-08-0.75
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03+0.49

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.64 · P90 |e| 5.64 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.13 -3.08

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.09 [-0.95, 0.60] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -3.45 [-3.45, -3.45] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -0.48 [-0.48, -0.48] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +1.37 [0.09, 2.26] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -3.01 [-4.14, -1.79] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -3.02 [-3.02, -3.02] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.63 [0.50, 2.46] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence