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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KSAT · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.01 [2.04, 3.50]1.88-2.53 [-3.41, -0.50]3.55 [2.43, 4.15]6% [0%, 33%]29%59%-0.31+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.01 [1.43, 3.52]1.88-2.53 [-3.52, 0.51]3.55 [1.70, 4.14]6% [0%, 53%]29%59%-0.31+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.01 [1.45, 3.56]1.88-2.53 [-3.56, 0.51]3.55 [1.73, 4.22]6% [0%, 50%]29%59%-0.31+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.01 [1.58, 3.52]1.88-2.53 [-3.52, 0.51]3.55 [1.90, 4.19]6% [0%, 50%]29%59%-0.31+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC2.67 [2.01, 3.01]1.88-1.96 [-2.86, 0.13]3.20 [2.32, 3.71]6% [0%, 20%]53%65%-0.16+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC2.67 [1.82, 3.02]1.88-1.96 [-2.95, 1.14]3.20 [2.10, 3.70]6% [0%, 20%]53%65%-0.16+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC2.67 [1.76, 3.03]1.88-1.96 [-2.99, 1.14]3.20 [2.05, 3.76]6% [0%, 22%]53%65%-0.16+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC2.67 [1.77, 3.02]1.88-1.96 [-2.96, 1.14]3.20 [2.16, 3.72]6% [0%, 24%]53%65%-0.16+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.98 [1.95, 3.75]1.90-2.62 [-3.71, -0.78]3.59 [2.10, 4.39]6% [0%, 13%]47%59%-0.30+0.042026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.98 [1.71, 3.78]1.90-2.62 [-3.77, -0.58]3.59 [1.71, 4.43]6% [0%, 13%]47%59%-0.30+0.042026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.98 [1.71, 3.82]1.90-2.62 [-3.82, -0.54]3.59 [1.71, 4.45]6% [0%, 14%]47%59%-0.30+0.042026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.98 [1.71, 3.81]1.90-2.62 [-3.81, -0.29]3.59 [1.71, 4.42]6% [0%, 14%]47%59%-0.30+0.042026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.65 [1.79, 3.33]1.98-2.15 [-3.23, -0.33]3.35 [2.06, 4.09]18% [0%, 35%]47%65%-0.16-0.002026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.65 [1.68, 3.35]1.98-2.15 [-3.30, -0.06]3.35 [1.82, 4.11]18% [0%, 35%]47%65%-0.16-0.002026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.65 [1.47, 3.35]1.98-2.15 [-3.34, -0.06]3.35 [1.53, 4.14]18% [0%, 38%]47%65%-0.16-0.002026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC2.65 [1.76, 3.36]1.98-2.15 [-3.32, 0.18]3.35 [1.87, 4.07]18% [0%, 35%]47%65%-0.16-0.002026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.36 [0.79, 3.48]2.07+2.00 [-0.28, 3.46]3.20 [0.98, 4.23]29% [14%, 55%]65%65%-0.18-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.36 [0.57, 3.67]2.07+2.00 [-0.35, 3.67]3.20 [0.77, 4.36]29% [11%, 67%]65%65%-0.18-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.36 [0.40, 3.61]2.07+2.00 [-0.45, 3.61]3.20 [0.63, 4.27]29% [12%, 67%]65%65%-0.18-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.36 [0.51, 3.64]2.07+2.00 [-0.47, 3.64]3.20 [0.66, 4.34]29% [11%, 67%]65%65%-0.18-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC2.78 [0.85, 4.02]2.09+2.60 [0.31, 4.02]3.61 [1.03, 4.70]29% [4%, 78%]47%65%-0.39-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC2.78 [0.62, 4.20]2.09+2.60 [0.23, 4.20]3.61 [0.63, 4.83]29% [0%, 100%]47%65%-0.39-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC2.78 [0.62, 4.12]2.09+2.60 [0.16, 4.12]3.61 [0.62, 4.73]29% [0%, 100%]47%65%-0.39-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC2.78 [0.62, 4.14]2.09+2.60 [0.05, 4.14]3.61 [0.62, 4.80]29% [0%, 100%]47%65%-0.39-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.91 [1.40, 3.95]2.32+2.25 [-0.54, 3.77]3.78 [1.59, 4.85]18% [0%, 38%]47%71%-0.45-0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.91 [1.33, 4.05]2.32+2.25 [-1.33, 3.87]3.78 [1.33, 4.88]18% [0%, 40%]47%71%-0.45-0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.91 [1.33, 3.98]2.32+2.25 [-1.33, 3.89]3.78 [1.33, 4.82]18% [0%, 40%]47%71%-0.45-0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.91 [1.33, 4.08]2.32+2.25 [-1.27, 3.98]3.78 [1.33, 4.91]18% [0%, 43%]47%71%-0.45-0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.31 [1.34, 4.49]2.38+2.87 [0.07, 4.44]4.21 [1.52, 5.37]6% [0%, 33%]35%59%-0.65-0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.31 [0.80, 4.57]2.38+2.87 [-0.57, 4.51]4.21 [0.84, 5.43]6% [0%, 53%]35%59%-0.65-0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.31 [0.80, 4.53]2.38+2.87 [-0.57, 4.51]4.21 [0.84, 5.39]6% [0%, 50%]35%59%-0.65-0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC3.31 [0.80, 4.68]2.38+2.87 [-0.57, 4.59]4.21 [0.84, 5.48]6% [0%, 50%]35%59%-0.65-0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: +0.51 °F2026-08-15: -4.28 °F2026-08-16: -1.03 °F2026-08-17: -4.09 °F2026-08-18: -1.61 °F2026-08-19: -1.62 °F2026-08-20: -8.22 °F2026-08-21: -3.1 °F2026-08-22: -5.27 °F2026-08-23: -2.25 °F2026-08-24: -2.26 °F2026-08-25: -2.47 °F2026-08-26: -2.2 °F2026-08-27: -5.06 °F2026-08-28: -3.66 °F2026-08-29: +1.22 °F2026-08-30: +2.39 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.39
2026-08-29+1.22
2026-08-28-3.66
2026-08-27-5.06
2026-08-26-2.20
2026-08-25-2.47
2026-08-24-2.26
2026-08-23-2.25
2026-08-22-5.27
2026-08-21-3.10
2026-08-20-8.22
2026-08-19-1.62
2026-08-18-1.61
2026-08-17-4.09
2026-08-16-1.03
2026-08-15-4.28
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09+0.51

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.39 · P90 |e| 5.15 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08173.01 -2.53

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 +0.19 [-1.21, 1.44] no
NCEP GFS 17 +0.79 [-0.27, 1.91] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -3.30 [-4.26, -1.09] yes
Persistence (baseline) 17 +0.72 [-1.11, 1.44] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence